**** PSA - Losing as a favourite ****

[ama0330]

Hello microballers,

A friendly Public Service Announcement for you all.

In poker we deal with EV, which simply translated means "betting our money when we are a mathematical favourite, and not betting when we aren't". We all know that when you are a 60/40 favourite, you should come out with the mad monies when the river is all said and done. Right?

WRONGGGGGG!

This may seem simple to most of you, but when we are talking equity edges in poker, they are very, VERY slim. What I mean by that is that one of the best edges you can have in poker (all in with AA versus AK preflop) is still only a 10:1 shot to hold up. That kind of edge is only offered to us VERY rarely in typical play. What we usually deal with are edges like holding a set versus a flush draw (a 3:1 edge) having our opponent draw to 3 outs (70:30). Edges of 60-65% are still very good and are more common.

What you need to realise is that when you hold an equity edge of 70%, you are a favourite, BUT if you were to play the situation 100 times, you are guaranteed to lose 30 times. If you talk about a 2:1 edge (a big edge in NLHE), if you run it 100 times, you are supposed to lose 33 times in addition to winning your 66 times.

My point is, if you get it all in with 70% equity and lose, then immediately think "I was a favourite. I was supposed to win that pot", you are seriously deluding yourself and you need to properly understand what it is to have an equity edge. An equity edge is NOT a golden stamp saying "Sup dude! Ship the monies!". It just doesn't work like that. A 60% edge means you win 60 times out of 100, and lose40 times out of 100. Thats right...40 times out of 100 you are mathematically destined to lose. We are all very happy when our edges hold up, but when we lose, how often do we say "oh well, 70% isn't a lock. You gotta lose those ones sometimes".

NEVER! We say "[censored] HELL 70% EQUITY WTF HOW DID I LOSE THAT WITH SUCH A HUGE [censored] EDGE JESUS I RUN SO BAD BLAERHGJHWKJEGHWEJKH" - right? Yes I'm right. Look how many stamps there are in the cheese thread.

SO.

Consider this new rule.


"The only time you can be truly justified in complaining about losing with an equity edge is if you had your opponent drawing dead on the turn and the dealer dealt a 6th card to give you opponent the best hand, and no-one said anything and the floor ruled that the 6th card was legal and there was nothing you could do about it"

or, more realistically,

"You cant complain about losing with an equity edge in one specific hand, you can only complain about losing with an equity edge when mathematical variance has evened out. Given that nobody knows how long "long term" actually means, you can't really ever complain about losing with an equity edge".


Hopefully now you have a better understanding of what it means to be a "favourite" in an all in confrontation. Sometimes you don't just lose, sometimes you HAVE to lose.

Get it?

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/4382/lmme4.jpg

[PJo336]

http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/2798/stdiw6.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

!!!!!!

[jafeather]

A) Everything you said is very ture.

B) It's horribly sad that this needs to be said.

C) It's even more horribly sad that the people that really need to read and understand OP may read, but are unlikely to ever understand, OP.

[Skleice]

Seems like somebody got stuck listening to too many bad beat stories...

BBV.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
A) Everything you said is very ture.

B) It's horribly sad that this needs to be said.

C) It's even more horribly sad that the people that really need to read and understand OP may read, but are unlikely to ever understand, OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but I had to try, right?

I wonder how many people lose as a 70% favourite and consider that they may be running hot? Something to think about there.

[PJo336]

lol
"if you run it 100 times, you are supposed to lose 33 times in addition to winning your 66 times."

33+66= 100!!!
haha just messing I fully endorse the message of this post, but I doubt even a good description will change anything for most.
Everyone needs to do what I have done. Get one friend who never says ANYTHING but bad beat stories. After 1 month if you ever felt like mentioning a bad beat to anyone without thinking of how annoying your friend is I would be surprised.

[Panic__NL]

Nice post, some people think if they hold AA and their opponent hold AK, they deserve to win. Wrong thought, they will win most of the time, but getting that into your brain is hard sometimes. Best you can do is put your money in when you are ahead.
Still it is against the human emotion, be happy when the money goes in when you are ahead but still loose, be mad at yourself when the money goes in when you are behind but win by a suckout.

[jafeather]

An mathematical equation on the amplification of this thought process caused by online play by standard donk to whom OP is aimed:

Where,

X = the number times the favorite hand fails to hold up

Y = (avg # of online hands per hour) - (avg # of b&m hands per hour)

X * Y = rigged

[Knight Vision]

[ QUOTE ]
An mathematical equation on the amplification of this thought process caused by online play by standard donk to whom OP is aimed:

Where,

X = the number times the favorite hand fails to hold up

Y = (avg # of online hands per hour) - (avg # of b&m hands per hour)

X * Y = rigged

[/ QUOTE ]

Online players make such bad calls though. Factor that in. kthx

[kaz2107]

ama make me a kool stamp to use /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[avfletch]

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[PJo336]

Less whining, more poker for your title

[Keys Myaths]

I love this thread.

[carnivalhobo]

something that goes along with this IMO is a sense of entitlement we sometimes get as people who have spend hundreds of hours playing and studying this sick game. It doesnt owe you anything, you dont deserve to win any more than joe mcfish who buys in for 73bbs and playing and 2 suited.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
ama make me a kool stamp to use /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol im on it kaz

[yeesh]

[ QUOTE ]


What you need to realise is that when you hold an equity edge of 70%, you are a favourite, BUT if you were to play the situation 100 times, you are guaranteed to lose 30 times

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I would only add that this is only true if these 100 hands took place in a theoretical vacuum. It's possible to be a 70% equity favorite and lose all 100 hands, and it's possible to win all 100 hands. But if you were to play an infinite number of hands, then yes, you are guaranteed to win 70% and lose 30%.
Running bad or running good often means when our results are not corresponding with our equity over an infinite number of hands.

[warwickphil]

A+++ post.

My number one pet hate is my friends constantly telling me how "unlucky" they are...

[matrix]

*bump*

can everyone who's read this already READ IT AGAIN.

please keep reading it until it sinks in.

/images/graemlins/heart.gif ama

[Angrymoog]

Until recently, I had some not insignificant problems with tilting due to losing these situations. Or thinking a pot was mine before the hand was finished being dealt. This wasn't the break-my-keyboard-and-smash-the-pieces-through-my-monitor type tilt. It was more subtle. The kind of tilt where you're certain you're not on tilt.

Fortunately, I am fairly disciplined and decided to cash out and stop playing until I felt I was level again. I try my best to be objective in each hand, and so far it seems to be working well.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
something that goes along with this IMO is a sense of entitlement we sometimes get as people who have spend hundreds of hours playing and studying this sick game. It doesnt owe you anything, you dont deserve to win any more than joe mcfish who buys in for 73bbs and playing and 2 suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post

[RUDIKS]

nice post man

[EMc]

pls note the new title.

[DannyOcean_]

omg its backwards... head asplode

[Chomp]

I am 100% guilty of not fully internalising this very simple concept.

Good post Ama.

[Vyse]

I get it. That doesn't mean there's anything wrong with bitching. We bitch because we know people are in the same boat as us, and as humans it helps us feel much better about our predicament when we're not alone. People usually whine when it's four, five, six hands in a short period of time, not one, two, or three. There's nothing wrong with that.

[thac]

ama - I've reconsidered you as a person. At first I thought you were kinda snobby and had a bit of a SSNL ego, but in the last couple months, I've grown fond of your posts.

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I agree with everything, quit whining and playyyyy!

[corsakh]

Mm... Unfortunealty humans are emotional beings and we tend to go on tilt. Just compare your big winning streaks to your big loosing streaks and you will see that tilt comprises a huge fraction of your losses.

Second, all of us have very limited bankrolls, and a dice can easily roll "one" more than 20 times in a row.

Third, when I have 4 to 1 edge, I tend to put all my money into the middle which is often two days work. Then I loose on a suck out I have to grind back for several days cent by cent stealing blinds and making cbets that get no respect after a big loss anyway /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Knight Vision]

your 2nd and 3rd points are why you have a first point. Only problem is 2 and 3 are mathematically unfounded in the long run.

[corsakh]

I'm not even gonna bother explaining you the basics of a function on an infinite scale, so you are right.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
ama - I've reconsidered you as a person. At first I thought you were kinda snobby and had a bit of a SSNL ego, but in the last couple months, I've grown fond of your posts.

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I agree with everything, quit whining and playyyyy!

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Superman26gt]

Sticky this post definitely. Great job Ama!

[ QUOTE ]
B) It's horribly sad that this needs to be said.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured this out last month /images/graemlins/confused.gif



Edit: I just want to express my concern on this being a sticky again..this should be rule #1 in learning poker, hands down.

[Jouster777]

Making big Sklansky bucks:
1st time in a session: mildly annoying/amusing
2nd time: mildly annoying
3rd time: uncomfortable itch
4th time: real annoyance...leave if you aren't sure you are playing your A game
5th time: less poker, more whining

[kaz2107]

PAGING ama...
n e ideas on my stamp?!?!?!

if not i was thinkin either "ship it holla" or "instaprestopush"

wudya think!?!?!?

[MidwestPokerJohn]

But he only had one out! It just ain't fair!

[jgunnip]

bump for awesomeness

[eigenvalue]

One additional thing you should think about, too!

Let's assume you are all-in on the flop with say 2-pair vs a flush draw and you have 66% equity to win a pot of $100. Now, if you win the showdown, you win $100. But mathematically, you should have won only $66. The remaining $33 you won simply because you were lucky and Villain was unlucky in that part of the pot.

Let's assume you play 3 of these hands during a given period and you win all 3. Every time you might think: Well, I was the favorite, it's normal. Nothing is normal! You won 3 times a part of 33$ due to good luck. After winning 3 pots like that in a row, you earned $100 - one complete pot of that kind - simply because you were lucky!

[Monster207]

this is an awesome post, although i understand the concept I must admit I am guilty of thinking that just because i was a 70/30 favorite or whatever I was always entitled to win. This is great and will probably help with my insane ninja monkey tilt.

btw Jouster777 i almost [censored] my pants laughing at your icon

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
One additional thing you should think about, too!

Let's assume you are all-in on the flop with say 2-pair vs a flush draw and you have 66% equity to win a pot of $100. Now, if you win the showdown, you win $100. But mathematically, you should have won only $66. The remaining $33 you won simply because you were lucky and Villain was unlucky in that part of the pot.

Let's assume you play 3 of these hands during a given period and you win all 3. Every time you might think: Well, I was the favorite, it's normal. Nothing is normal! You won 3 times a part of 33$ due to good luck. After winning 3 pots like that in a row, you earned $100 - one complete pot of that kind - simply because you were lucky!

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point btw

[JJBuffone]

Awesome post!! Thanks for this.

[jmgambler]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

SB: $25.30
BB: $32
UTG: $17.70
MP: $24.55
Hero (CO): $22
BTN: $29

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Qd/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
SB bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.45) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($13.45) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
SB bets $8, Hero raises all-in to $15.40, SB calls $7.40

Pot Size: $44.25 ($2.15 Rake)

SB had A/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (a full house, Aces full of Jacks)
Hero had Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (a full house, Queens full of Aces)

This post is rubbish I SHOULD HAVE WON THIS HAND!!!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif I only had like 98% equity on the flop......




Nice post Ama

[PJo336]

raise flop, ur fault

hi, i've another example, somewhat similar to this one.
for example, i am living within a family with 4 other siblings, and my 2 parents of course. so all together we are 7 people. nobody of us has suffered any serious diseases up to now.

but if we assume that the possibility to sicken from cancer (or any other bad disease) is approximately 90% (i don't know the exact number, of course),
then the probability that nobody of my family suffers from cancer in their whole life is only about 45%.

so nobody of my family should think of a big, sudden stroke of fate, if one member of his/her family gets cancer...rather than whining, we should take care of our health and go to good medical doctors more often than...

[Al P]

If you do "run bad" you probably won't play enough hands of poker in your lifetime to even things out. The same can be said about "running good".

For example I wrote a little program that can do billions of coinflips. Even after 10,000,000 flips it's possible that one side or the other is off by a few thousand. Now imagine each of those is a $1,000 flip and while you should be breakeven instead you're millions of dollars in the hole - while your opponent is up millions of dollars.

[fees]

stars is rigged

[Capone]

nice post

[kaz2107]

i have still yet to get a stamp. imma come to amsterdam or w/e u live and fight u /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Capone]

simple yet so many are guilty of this.