25NL - AKo easy PF question

[Superman26gt]

75/41/3 - 12 hands

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($6.31)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($26.69)</font>
UTG ($77.37)
MP ($23.80)
CO ($11.52)
Hero ($55.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.35</font>, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $10.20

Just want to check this really quick with you guys

[Grunch]

All-in.

[Gullanian]

The thing is, at worst (forgetting AA/KK) you are 50/50 to win the hand.

Becuase you have already invested $2.25 in the pot, you are priced in. You have to call unless you have a rock solid read that your opponent has AA/KK.

[Superman26gt]

[ QUOTE ]
All-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of villain?

or

AI unless strong reads otherwise?

[Superman26gt]

[ QUOTE ]
Becuase you have already invested $2.25 in the pot, you are priced in. You have to call unless you have a rock solid read that your opponent has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we need a strong read he has AA/KK?

What if he has AA/KK here 25%?

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of villain?

or

AI unless strong reads otherwise?

[/ QUOTE ]

All-in because you have a great deal of equity against his entire range (virtually regardless of your reads of him), but only if you see all 5 cards. And also because you have a great deal of fold equity against many hands that have an edge against you; namely small to mid pocket pairs.

[Superman26gt]

ok, makes sense, but lets say his range is..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.059% 43.09% 04.97% 70831646 8168272.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 51.941% 46.97% 04.97% 77212994 8168272.00 { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

I'm assuming he is calling a shove with almost all of this range. He seems like one of those players that wants to gamble and once he puts in $7 he is not going to let go

[SwingVelvet]

so even with your calculations (no fold equity), it's still a coin flip. Since you already invested some money, you are priced in

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
75/41/3 - 12 hands

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($6.31)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($26.69)</font>
UTG ($77.37)
MP ($23.80)
CO ($11.52)
Hero ($55.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.35</font>, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $10.20

Just want to check this really quick with you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well I don't think the Deuces is calling every time, but w/e. Let's use your own equity assumptions:

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.059% 43.09% 04.97% 70831646 8168272.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 51.941% 46.97% 04.97% 77212994 8168272.00 { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

When the action comes back to you there is 10.10 in the pot and you have 19.34 behind. The EV of a push is:

EV = (.48*29.44)-(.52*19.34) = 14.13-10.06 = +4.07

Which is a huge ammount of equity. Folding has an EV of zero by definition, so pushing is much better than folding.

[Superman26gt]

ohhhh...ok now I get it. Thanks Grunch

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
ohhhh...ok now I get it. Thanks Grunch

[/ QUOTE ]

You're welcome, just don't try this at my tables. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ssdex]

I agree, this is a pretty standard shove against a monkey villian, if he has aces... damn, if he has kings, the ace is coming so dont worry, and if he has anything else, ship it......... but overall its super +ev, 4betting, even against monkeys, gets a lot more folds than you would think. the guy has to be super tight for me to fold AK here for less than 150bb's.

[DakotaKid]

There's a great section near the back of NLT&amp;P that goes into great detail about how profitable shoving AK is, and they only mention it with regards to open-shoving to steal the blinds. So when the pot has even more money (granted you can narrow opponents hand away from being random) it's even better.