NL TP + Nutflushdraw Questionable call

[bigoliver]

Villan was unknown. I should fold turn right? Bet is too strong.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $27.90
BB: $26.55
UTG: $29.75
<font color="black">Hero (MP): $50.00</font>
CO: $69.90
BTN: $55.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5.50) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.75</font>, BTN calls $3.75, BB calls $3.75

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($16.75) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $15.00</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $15.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($46.75) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Pot Size: $46.75 ($2.30 Rake)

[CazicT]

I think calling is probably fine on the turn here. It's not impossible you're ahead now, and you have lots of outs against 2 pair and sets and some outs against a straight.

The only question in my mind is if leading out would have been better, I'm thinking no, but i'm not sure about that.

[monkeymaps]

I prob lead that turn OOP, in postion if would check if checked to. as played I would fold turn Im not sure how often if ever you are ahead right now and dpends on villian how much in implied odds your getting if you hit your flush.

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
I prob lead that turn OOP, in postion if would check if checked to. as played I would fold turn Im not sure how often if ever you are ahead right now and dpends on villian how much in implied odds your getting if you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I came up with about 4.11:1 odds on the call if you thought you could get his whole stack if you got your flush. Because it is a backdoor flush I think you can stack a straight almost all the time. If you also consider you have 4 outs to tie the straight if he has it, I think the call is about even EV even if you believe he has the straight.

Any flaws in my thinking?

Edit: Heh, I already found 1 really minor flaw, if we assume he has a straight we only have 3 outs to tie the straight.

[monkeymaps]

I just think there are too many cards that kill your action on the river if villian has a 2 pair hand which is a large part of his range.

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
I just think there are too many cards that kill your action on the river if villian has a 2 pair hand which is a large part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all he has is two pair, then we have an enormous amount of outs though.

Unless he has AK which I doubt alot since I would think AK would want to raise that drawy flop, we have 15 outs vs. AT and 17 vs. any other two pair.

So if he has two pair, we have about the right immediate pot odds, if he has a straight, we probably have correct implied odds. If he has trips, it's tough to say, we might not get the implied odds for trips if he can lay it down on the river, that depends on his tendencies.

The sum of it is, that I think calling is OK here, it probably isn't a big mistake if at all. That being said, leading may be better, but that is harder to analyze using just numbers.

[Superman26gt]

deleted

[Nick C]

Tough spot, but I think what you did was okay. If Villain's hand is strong like his turn hand represents, then I don't think he's going to fold to a river donkbet if the backdoor flush hits. So you've got reasonable implied odds to go along with your murky outs plus the possibility that you're currently ahead versus KQ or something.

[drj003]

I would have bet the turn as well.