50NL getting played back at

[Supwithbates]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $54.10
BB: $50.00
UTG: $67.80
MP: $50.80
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $65.95</font>
BTN: $44.20

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $6.00</font>, Hero calls $3.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($16.50) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $9.50</font>, Hero calls $9.50

<font color="black">River:</font> ($35.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $23.50</font>, Hero calls $23.50

Pot Size: $82.50 ($3 Rake)

Villain is 41/25 and has specifically been calling a lot of my raises from the blinds, then check/folding flop. This is the first time he's done anything but fold to my c-bet.

Because he's c/f flop like 5 or 6 times in a row over the past 20 hands, how would you play this hand?

[Chomp]

I think I would play it the same but am pretty sure I could find a fold on the river.

Every day on these boards we discuss minraises and what they mean. A lot of people say it is weakness, and I suppose on lots of occasions it is. But, to me this c/mr line is trouble far, far more often than it's a bluff/a move/air etc.

Another example is here in this current thread, where many people seem to think hero is beaten:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...;gonew=1#UNREAD (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=10377139&amp;an=0&amp;page=0&amp;gon ew=1#UNREAD)


Anyway, IMO unless there's a chance villain doesn't raise a premium preflop and then hopelessly overplays it post, this is a river fold, especially given previous actions you cite.

All just IMO.

[Maneh]

why u dont raise the turn ?!

U know he probally had a big hand, like an overpair... so, put your money in!

Now u have a dificult decision... But i call /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[0evg0]

riv is close, but call

turn is also close to a raise, but call is best

[Supwithbates]

Here are the reasons I called river:
Villain is loose, and could potentially have a worse 8, although unlikely.
Villain doesn't seem too good, so he could possibly take this line with TT/99, though also unlikely.
My personal history with villain is likely to frustrate him and I think he is going to be bluffing fairly often at this point.

[Supwithbates]

Also, by choosing to just call turn, I was conceding the pot if river came a Jack or a spade

[karlwig]

i'd expect to see another 8 in his hand here a lot of the time. if he's loose, i could get myself to think he could have a weaker one. if he's tighter, he probably has more like A-8. however, tight could also mean he's got a big PP and can't let go of it. Just hope it's not the rockets.

as you describe the villian, it seems like a call would be correct.

i like your line here btw, as you say he's loose. by not raising, you make it more likely that he bets with a hand you can beat. i think your play is good.

[Supwithbates]

since no one seems to be discussing it:
what are the odds we see a whiffed draw/air here?

[DannyOcean_]

This is a really tough hand. One one hand, villian check minraised the flop. That just screams I HAVE A HUGE HAND in most scenarios, but if villian is poor and has been bullied by you, as you say, he could be doing this with an overpair easily. I think 99-JJ are possible here, QQ-AA he probably repops pf. Maybe he was being sneaky, but more likely 99-JJ. I usually fold the flop, but a call is not that bad. The turn i call, always. overpairs enough to profit from. River I am unsure of, can't say. I would love to hear what some experienced players think.

[Check_The_Nuts]

fold flop, raise turn. Raise turn for value because its got two flush draws on it, so some of the time he's semi-bluffing a draw, the other times he has an overpair and puts you on a draw. There's lots of value on a turn shove.

I think the river is closer than you think.

I grunched above, ev0 how is turn even close? I definitely raise here with a bad image.

edit: the more I look at this hand, the more I think the river is a fold. I dunno why he would bet so small with a nut flush draw on every street. A check-minraise on the flop, and a 2/3ish bet on the turn? I think this looks more like FH than anything else. Seems like if he was blocking or looking for a light call he'd bet either much bigger or much smaller.

[Supwithbates]

[ QUOTE ]
fold flop, raise turn. Raise turn for value because its got two flush draws on it, so some of the time he's semi-bluffing a draw, the other times he has an overpair and puts you on a draw. There's lots of value on a turn shove.

I think the river is closer than you think.

I grunched above, ev0 how is turn even close? I definitely raise here with a bad image.

edit: the more I look at this hand, the more I think the river is a fold. I dunno why he would bet so small with a nut flush draw on every street. A check-minraise on the flop, and a 2/3ish bet on the turn? I think this looks more like FH than anything else. Seems like if he was blocking or looking for a light call he'd bet either much bigger or much smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]
Normally I fold flop, but I think folding flop in this case is bad given villain's extreme likelihood to be raising any two cards here. Since I've established by now that villain isn't one to donkbet into the raiser, check/raise is the line he would take to bluff here instead.
That's not to say he can't have a real hand, but it is to say that he's more likely to be bluffing, which is often enough I think to merit a call.

On the turn, he bets for about 2/3 pot. By this time, if he's on a naked draw, he's paid enough to see it already to make it unprofitable. Sometimes you see people raise draws in position, but it's truly rare to see someone check/raise a draw and then lead it on the turn unless it was a pair+draw or something like that. He probably also folds if we raise and he is on a draw since the pot is already very big, there's no way he can call a legitimate raise. That being said, if he does have air or a made hand, which I deem to be much more likely, then he can pretty much play perfectly. It's unlikely he's calling a turn raise with a weak overpair like TT/99 since that 8 would be a scary card, and his high PFR stat indicates that he doesn't have JJ+ here almost ever since he called preflop.

River, he's basically betting almost nothing we beat for value. Yep, that means unless he's bluffing a pretty good amount of the time, this is probably a fold... the chances that he has a boat or better trips is high enough to make this a very close decision.

Results:<font color="white">
As it played out, I relied on instincts, and since I'm a showdown monkey and I think he's bluffing a high % of the time, I called. He showed down T6s for a whiffed gutshot draw and I took the pot. Unsure whether he actually would be bluffing enough to make it a profitable call, I decided to post it here. </font>

[wildzer0]

This smells like an overpair to me hoping to finally get even with you for stealing his blinds. Flush draws, sets (now full houses) and better 8's also make up a decent part of his range. I would say that in general you're pretty far ahead often enough, and with your lousy image and a drawy board, a turn push looks good.