NL25: KK facing flop push

[ciro bonano]

Villain was a bit loose and aggressive over a small sample size:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) handconverter.com (http://www.handconverter.com)

MP ($160.00)
Button ($40.85)
Hero ($57.70)
BB ($42.65)
UTG ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4.50.

Flop: ($13) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $153.75</font>, Hero calls $41.45 (All-In).

Did I bet too much on the flop?
What kind of read (if any) do you need before folding the flop?

[TheDivineRod]

well you only really beat AQ and KQ. KJ is a stretch, but villan may play it if hes loose. I may call because its NL50 and a lot of sets will wait till turn to raise. AK is a possibility for an aggro villan.

[juggler97531]

for normal stacks, in reraised pot with overpair to this board i get stacked always.
and i believe it is proper play at any stakes let alone micros.

[Genz]

I think I snapcall this. There are some draws possible that he might overplay and he has a big stack. Loose aggressive big stacks tend to overvalue some hands because everything worked out perfectly in the recent past.

[Wondercall]

I just don't know what hands we beat besides AQ, KQ type hands. I think this is a fold.

[Genz]

If he is loose and aggressive and runnig hot, we beat AQ, AT, KQ, QJ, KTs, JJ, 98s. And we have outs against QT.

[Sweir]

I call here, villain is probably 4betting AA pf and should fold 2pair hands, so I think you see TP/draw here and sometimes air often enough to make it +EV. Ofcourse sometimes you will lose to 77/TT and maybe AA/QT.

[Wondercall]

Let me know where I can find 50NL players who are pushing AT, JJ or 98s because I would love to play there.

[TheDivineRod]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know where I can find 50NL players who are pushing AT, JJ or 98s because I would love to play there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Full tilt definatly has them, but they bust out quickly.

[Wondercall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me know where I can find 50NL players who are pushing AT, JJ or 98s because I would love to play there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Full tilt definatly has them, but they bust out quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[juggler97531]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't know what hands we beat besides AQ, KQ type hands. I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if his range is only sets, QT two pair and AQ there are only 9 sets , 4 two pair hand and 12 AQ!!
so this call is a must even if we give his super-tight range.
If we add to his range KJ, J9 (all of them 16 combinations) then we just crush his range.
It is call like always. not calling here is very big leak.

Now try to think about a hand not from point of view of villains range but heros range.
After our flop bet hero's range is likely AA-TT, AK (given preflop reraise). and you say that on this flop you will call shove only with sets and AA.
so out of possible 18 pairs + 6 sets + 16 AKs you are calling only 12 hands???
this makes villain shove +EV with any two.

every analysis i try to make puts me more and more into thinking that call is the only play and it is not even close

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know where I can find 50NL players who are pushing AT, JJ or 98s because I would love to play there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is described as being loose and aggro. If I were hero then I would be cbetting this flop almost every time and 3betting pf with a decent range if I saw villain raise/folding pf. So villain could think we are weak and push a fairly wide range here including OESDs and pair+overcard type hands, under the assumption that he is going to take the pot down a reasonable % of the time, and when he doesnt he will still have outs to the best hand.

[TheDivineRod]

Do you think villan calls the PF reraise with KJ,9J, QT, Etc?

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think villan calls the PF reraise with KJ,9J, QT, Etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never played with villain so I could be well off here but: KJ probably, QTs/J9s/89s might do, QTo/J9o/89o probably not but maybe. Remeber he could have air here, and AK could play like this with a gutshot and 2 overs.

[ciro bonano]

I haven't read all responses carefully yet (posting at work :]), but I only did see villain being a bit loose/aggro (smth like 30/20 iirc) during a small sample size. I don't know where he got his huge stack from and I don't know about his post-flop tendencies.

How was my flop-bet sizing?

[Genz]

Your flop sizing was ok. If you make it a full pot, you set up stack sizes a little nicer if you want to push on a safe turn, though.