50NL; 200BB's - JTs flops pair+flush draw; turns gutshot straight draw

[Lego05]

Villian is 14.59/9.81/2.08 over 377 hand

How's pre-flop, flop look to everyone?
What's the acction on turn and plan for river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($51.55)
MP ($172.20)
Button ($7.50)
Hero ($92.10)
BB ($111.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($8) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $5.

Turn: ($18) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $15</font>, Hero ???

[Lurker.]

you're pretty deep. i think calling/re-evaluating is fine.
Preflop is a bit loose, but not terrible by any means.

[tomo10]

I agree that with implied odds a call is ok and the same with a fold. Again I agree and say the preflop call is too loose. I would fold the turn because given the villains stats the only card that comes and helps for sure is a K and probably a 10. If a J comes he couls have AK and rivered a straight and then your put in a tough spot with two pair. I think the easiest play is to fold and wait for a better spot. It does not look like he is getting too out of line over the 300 plus hands

[0evg0]

looks pretty good. if villain is decent enough to fold AK UI on the river, then i'll bet ~14 on turn and pot pretty much any river as well on occassion.

donk most rivers that hit you, c/shove like maybe a T i guess. river is kinda dependent on villain, use judgment but as a default best value is to lead it

[jmgambler]

I am folding this OOP, PF.... I do not know if I like the flop lead? maybe its me, I call the turn I give you 12 clean outs and C/F the river UI

[Lego05]

What does anyone think about check raising on the turn. (What if we were shorter?) I've just tried to do some ev calcs for check raising all-in.

So what do you think about check-raising all-in? And also does this calc look correct assuming that he has AK 30% and always folds, AQ 30% and folds half the time, TT,QQ,AA 40% and never folds. (Also what do you think about the range and percentages?)

33(.3) + 33(.15) + 103 (.045) + -85(.105) + 103(.1) + -85(.3) = -4.64

So I guess he's gotta have AK, AQ way more and/or be folding AQ all the time for a check-raise push to be good.

I didn't actually check-raise all-in but I thought about it.

[tarheeljks]

what about going for a c/r on the flop?

[Dootch]

Fold PF

On the turn check folding is fine, making a $10 blockbet is good too. Bet more on the turn if you think he will fold AK to a river bet, then follow up the river some of the time.

[BevillTheDevil]

id fold preflop, as played IMO its a pretty much close to neutral EV call on turn...I dont think all your outs are clean and implied odds probably arent as great as expected b/c such a nitty villian most likely wont stack off with TP hands or less...

[jungy121]

wtf @ fold preflop and check folding turn?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
what about going for a c/r on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look one post above yours.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold PF

On the turn check folding is fine, making a $10 blockbet is good too. Bet more on the turn if you think he will fold AK to a river bet, then follow up the river some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would definitely fold preflop if we were 100 BB's deep. However, as deep as we are a call is for a little less than 2.5% of effective stacks and since he raises less than 10% he prolly has a decent hand meaning he'll put in money post-flop.

I dunno why you wanna check fold turn. I'm getting a little better than 2 to 1 with at least 12 outs (diamonds and a K), a J may be good. A blockbet on the turn may have been a good idea.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about going for a c/r on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look one post above yours.


[/ QUOTE ]
The post above his was talking about c/r'ing the turn (which I think is a bad play, btw). I personally like a c/c on flop, donk bet on turn.

yeah - and folding pre-flop with 200bb's behind with our hand is just playing weak tight.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about going for a c/r on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look one post above yours.


[/ QUOTE ]
The post above his was talking about c/r'ing the turn (which I think is a bad play, btw). I personally like a c/c on flop, donk bet on turn.

yeah - and folding pre-flop with 200bb's behind with our hand is just playing weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops my bad. Ok what about check raising on the flop? I guess he'd probably fold AQ, AK right there and if not then almost definitely when I followed up on turn. He'd fold QQ, KK on flop. But if he has TT, AA then it'll start getting real expensive and I'd pretty much know that only my flush outs are good.

[0evg0]

unless he really sucks, c/r is really bad because he's never bet/folding turn.

only way c/r is profitable is if he's betting AJ/AK on turn - which he probably shouldn't be. if he does though, then c/r very often.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally like a c/c on flop, donk bet on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. Call pre-flop, check/call flop, blocking bet on turn (as played, call), evaluate river and hope for a king or a diamond.

If it's a king, you know you've got the nuts, so try to stack the guy. If it's a diamond, he could conceivably have a higher flush so I'd be a bit more cautious, but I'd still bet it for value.