25NL, folding hands where you most likely split

[Tomke]

Villain sat down about 2 orbits ago, so no good stats. He seems okay. Anyone who hates the low variance route of folding? My reasoning is:

1. Villain is BB, and could possibly hold 74 here
2. The extra rake I'll have to pay when splitting probably makes up for a good amount of the money I lose by giving up the pot.
3. He overbets, which a decent player would probably do when holding 74

Everest Poker 25NL
6 players

Stack sizes:
HERO: $46.25
BUTTON: $84.53
UTG: $8.50
CO: $48.76
BB: $24.40
MP: $19.60

Pre-flop: HERO has (4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif) (6 players):
MP calls for $0.25, CO calls for $0.25, 1 fold, HERO calls for $0.10, BB checks

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players, $1)
HERO checks, BB checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players, $1)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6</font>, 3 folds

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who hates the low variance route of folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Me. It's AWFUL if you fold here. You're giving up money (there's more money in the pot than the rake), the chance of villain having 74 is low (about a 1/13 chance, even if he has the 4), you STILL MIGHT BE WINNING!, and most importantly, even if you are splitting here, you have FOUR FREE OUTS TO WIN THE POT!

What more do you want?

[Tomke]

Hmm I didn't think of my free outs. That makes this a pretty horrible fold indeed.

&lt;-- idiot /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[jmgambler]

Maybe, if you didnt hold the 8, but a 7 will give you the nuts, so I am 99% not folding here