I fold, and then I go... "Hmm, I think I'll ask 2p2"

[ama0330]

Sanity check. Villain is 22/14, no history. Comments appreciated everywhere.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $38.85
BB: $43.50
UTG: $49.70
MP: $64.10
<font color="black">CO: $68.68</font>
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $49.75</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kc.png (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $4

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($12.75) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5c.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Jc.png (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $43</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $65.75

[Keys Myaths]

Yeah, his range for doing this is 55, QQ, JJ, KK, AA, QJs, and AQ and maybe KQ clubs.

Look at how many of those you're beating.

[barryc83]

Idk if I make this fold but I probably should. You're ahead of 1 hand, AQ, and flipping with 1 hand, AKs. Unless he's tilting or something I think this is ok. You provide no reads but stats so I'll assume you have no other reads. However, if he's one of these TAGs that never folds to 3bets (there are a lot of them) then I'm stacking off here. I note people who never fold to 3bets pf.

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
and flipping with 1 hand, AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain can't have AKclubs here.

[ocdscale]

Tough fold. As Keys pointed out, you're not ahead of much here.
He has to give you some credit for a hand after 3betting, range is probably all pocket pairs (small ones for set value), AK, AQ.
His check raise really narrows it to JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ.
Vomit inducing fold, but definitely +EV.

[Dunkman]

Yeah the PF action narrows his range to the point where I think you have to fold.

[ama0330]

The question is, can we ever be sure enough that villain is making a move on us, nomatter whether he is an unknown or not, to ever make this +EV?

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and flipping with 1 hand, AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain can't have AKclubs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right I need to pay more attention.

[derosnec]

AQ clubs makes sense as do QQ/JJ, but given that you defined your hand preflop, i'd lean towards him having QQ/JJ. you denied his implied odds pf (making his preflop call neutral ev, unless he outplays you postflop). you have backdoor flush and straight outs and two K outs. i always call here (unless deep) because of my 3bet pf (i 3bet pf so i can call here, make sense?).

(i might be way off)

yea, I think you have to fold this. His Stats look good, so I can only see him doing this with JJ-QQ. He lost a lot of value out of the hand tho.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
yea, I think you have to fold this. His Stats look good, so I can only see him doing this with JJ-QQ. He lost a lot of value out of the hand tho.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah IMO villain has played this poorly no matter what his holding.

[Jay Riall]

Easy shove imo.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Sanity check. Villain is 22/14, no history. Comments appreciated everywhere.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $38.85
BB: $43.50
UTG: $49.70
MP: $64.10
<font color="black">CO: $68.68</font>
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $49.75</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kc.png (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $4

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($12.75) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5c.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Jc.png (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $43</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $65.75

[/ QUOTE ]


push. This is AQ a lot.

[abcjnich]

from a game theory perspective, this a a bad fold. villian might as well push w/ any pair and any draw and you'll fold enough for him to win monies. because it looks like you're only calling with qq, jj, maybe aa, and akclubs.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ clubs makes sense as do QQ/JJ, but given that you defined your hand preflop, i'd lean towards him having QQ/JJ. you denied his implied odds pf (making his preflop call neutral ev, unless he outplays you postflop). you have backdoor flush and straight outs and two K outs. i always call here (unless deep) because of my 3bet pf (i 3bet pf so i can call here, make sense?).

(i might be way off)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree this is a call, or at least I know that's what I'd do rightly or wrongly. However, I think you guys may be off on your preflop ranges for villain and his perception of your range. All that happened was villain made a LP open raise, which he probably does with a lot of hands in the CO, and hero made a small 3-bet with position. Villain is not paying a lot to call it back and take a flop, and although it might be wrong for him to call hero with hands like Tc9c, QcTc, AcTc, etc, he may not think so, and it's certainly plausible that those hands are in his range. And it's also possible that he sees your bet as a whiffed AK c-bet or even some random hands that you're getting frisky with preflop.

Combine that preflop consideration with his checkraise push, which looks a lot like a draw or AQ protecting, and I can't help but look him up.

edit: Plus we're getting about 2:1 if I counted the bets right. Seems like the chance of sucking out combined with the chance we have the best hand swings it further toward a call.

[Vyse]

In the heat of the game, I'm calling. But what is in this thread makes sense -- seems like a good fold.

[avfletch]

What is your range in this spot and how does villain perceive you? I doubt I ever let this go but there might be cause for it somewhere in your range of hands.

If your range is pretty nitty eg JJ+/AK then you may as well felt it here along with everything except AK because you'll have the goods so damn often it doesn't matter.

If your range is pretty wide then you may as well felt it because you'll naturally fold this spot a fair amount so it doesn't matter.

Somewhere in between these two there might be a spot that makes folding correct but I doubt it. Personally I shove and get on with the next hand.

As a side note, if your range is nearer the first nitty one then I think your pfrr is too small. You're offering him pretty nice odds to see a flop and outplay you. I'd make it nearer $7.50 (and would possibly do that regardless of how wide I'm 3betting).

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah IMO villain has played this poorly no matter what his holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that? On the contarary, I can see how you missplayed it twice. First by making a milking raise preflop and second all of a sudden almost potting a 3bet board.

As played its villain dependant. If you think he is a fish, he has a queen here 80% of the time. If he is any where good, its either air or your toast. Most of the time toast, especially to 22/14. Whats more important here is his flop AF and c/r percentage.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ clubs makes sense as do QQ/JJ, but given that you defined your hand preflop, i'd lean towards him having QQ/JJ. you denied his implied odds pf

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. OP raised $4 and has $45 left whis is roughly 9%. So it's a thin call for small PPs.
The board is pretty wet though so I don't think that he tries to make a move with a smaller PP because he has to figure that his FE is pretty low (if he is a decent player). So I think he has a made hand here. AA is unlikely because he probably wouldn't flat call it oop preflop. So you basically beat AQ, KQ but that's it. I think it's a good fold notwithstanding that you were playing a very open game recently and he might figure you don't have much here.

[corsakh]

4 to 45 is roughly 9% ? Suppose its late /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy shove imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
4 to 45 is roughly 9% ? Suppose its late /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


those aren't odds but the 5/10 rule. I was considering how big OP's raise was in comparison to his (edit: remaining) stack.

4/45 = 0.0888888888
i.e.:
$4 is roughly 9% of $45.

[corsakh]

My bad I said it was late /images/graemlins/wink.gif I think of 5/10 rules in terms of odds not percentage.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy shove imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Please elaborate. Both of you. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
What range do you put villain/an unknown/a regular on so that you think you are ahead here often enough? And btw: villain is basically raising OP ai, since OP will only have 0.75 left. So there is no fold equity.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
My bad I said it was late /images/graemlins/wink.gif I think of 5/10 rules in terms of odds not percentage.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you want your villain to have at least 9x his raise left in his stack (10%) and ideally 20x his raise (5%)? Assuming you cover. I usually go with 15x his raise.

[corsakh]

10 - 20 respectively. Dpending on the villain, my position and my run.

[Brian O'Nolan]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if he's one of these TAGs that never folds to 3bets (there are a lot of them) then I'm stacking off here. I note people who never fold to 3bets pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
For realz, I think you have to get it in here w/ no reads other than he is 22/14. Yeah it's a lil high variance but I think this is something retarded like QT often enough to be +EV. Your 3bet is a little smaller than standard I think he calls w/ lots of garbage there.

[sww]

If villain is solid but passive, easy fold. If he is tricky, aggressive or donk, it gets a lot tougher. I don't think there is single right answer, if you look it first you understand that you aren't beating too much here. Then on second thought you see how exploitable your position is, you are giving your opponent +ev spots to run plays. Finally, you are in trouble. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough fold. As Keys pointed out, you're not ahead of much here.
He has to give you some credit for a hand after 3betting, range is probably all pocket pairs (small ones for set value), AK, AQ.
His check raise really narrows it to JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ.
Vomit inducing fold, but definitely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]If the C/R gives him that range then its a call (I'd throw in a single combo draw, and maybe a QJs) . Other than the combo draw the action is a bit off for all the range so the key to figuring out the the hand will come from the proper discounting of each possible holding.

[BoerfSt]

I can only see him do this with hands that beat you.Maybe AQ or a draw.In either way, I think folding is the best choice, if you call you are often dominated.

[ama0330]

Guys guys guys hold up.

There is some great discussion here about "what do I normally do this with" and what are my ranges, what are his ranges, someone even mentioned game theory etc etc. The point is that it is extremely rare for any of this to be relevant because to take that sort of thing into account we would have to assume that villain:

1. Is capable of making this sort of move with air
2. Is thinking on more than one level
3. Thinks that HERO is able to be bluffing/will fold here
4. Thinks that HERO is 3betting light preflop

etc etc etc.

IMO, this is just way way too much assumption to make a push here +EV. Remember, in my OP, I said that I have no history. I don't know what he is thinking, nor do I even know if he is on more than one level. I don't know how he plays. I've seen a LOT of players with stats like this who are just god awful at poker. Remember, we have no history, which is the case with most opponents at uNL because the player base is so large.

They say that assumption is the mother of all [censored] ups, well whatever reads we have on eachother, we are both assuming. So if we say "you could be good here", we are assuming that HE is assuming that I am 3betting less than AA-JJ AND subsequently leading flops for PSBs. Thats a hell of a lot of assuming. Yes, I very often have nothing at all here, but so what? How the hell does he know that? He knows as little about me as I do about him, and if you think otherwise, then thats just more assumption.

So far as I can see, the only hand that this player could possibly be doing this that I beat is AQ. Thats one hand. If he has any other hand at all, then he wins with the worst hand, but so what? I still can't call. I don't want to invent hands that he COULD have just so I can talk myself into a call, I want to know what he logically is LIKELY to hold so I can make a good decision.

I honestly feel like this is QQ/JJ 99% of the time.

[Kimo White Devil]

you know what, im more willing to stack-off here verus a 22/14 than a 35/9 guy. the 35/9 guy will have the QQ, JJ, QJ type of hand, the TAG can have AQ can have TT and is able to make a move.

I know I play too often for stacks but I have so many TAG do this type of play with draws/underpair/AQ that shove should be +ev this.

He does not have QQ most of the time by the way, except if your stats are like 12/10 and im sure he puts you on AK (you 3-bet for christ's sake!!!)

to Brian : He does not have QT here sorry.

last edit : the only hand that beat you here that I see him holding and could really be that one would be JJ...

[Gelford]

Well Ama it all depends as you say, this is 50NL, so ... ??? (My reads are off, no intention to talk down)

I am just used to QQ/JJ being an auto fourbet from the btn, then I 3bet, but then again ??? But I tend to discard QQ/JJ hands in these kinds of situations.

But, seeing a HHs on it own like this entails no table feel or reads, even tho you say you are readless, IRL it is rarely so, there are all the little things like timing and whatever.


But basically, neither the fold nor the push are socially unacceptable here, at least for 100BB.

This is just one of those marginal spots, where it all comes down to 'feel'

[avfletch]

A lot of this type of stuff is just assumption due to the lack of history. The range of hands that you could have in this spot is not an assumption though. It is fixed and, to a reasonable degree of accuracy, you know what it is.

If it includes the goods a lot of the time you can get it in because he's making a mistake to have played this way. In this case KK is very near the bottom of your range, probably only ahead of your AK holdings. This makes it a marginal spot and is thus bad for you but I usually lean towards giving action in a marginal spot like this. (I think it's worth adding that if you believe his range is JJ/QQ tight then this paragraph is obviously untrue.)

If it includes a lot of air then you can get it in because he's making a mistake to have played this way. In this case KK is very near the top of your range and you can felt it safe in the knowledge that your %s work out because of the air you hold a lot of the time. If he's capable of making plays then you definitely want to be felting KK here. If he's not then you still come out ahead in the long run because your range folds so much.

In my opinion it's far better to have a wider range than people expect and to thus make their set mining-esque plays wrong than to try and get all of these spots right when dealing with your overpairs.

Finally, if you are 99% certain this is QQ/JJ do you fold if you hold JJ?

---

Meh, this was written in a hurry during lunch and I don't think it's too well explained. I'll have another crack later.

[matrix]

"no history"

at all?? is this the first time you 3bet this guy preflop?

his stats suggest he is a 2p2 meh TAG and given the state of the games these days he might well put you on some CB with your flop bet and tried to move you off it.

I think this is a shove at $100 where the games are more aggro, I think I might fold this if this was the first time I'd 3bet villain preflop and give him the benefit of the doubt. He has QQ/JJ or AQ almost always and I think even if he "only" has Ax clubs he has 11 outs against us twice.

Also your flop lead is too big. Leading $7 I think is plenty big enough. We are only playing with 100BB here.

[Gullanian]

Ummm this is microstakes right? I push with a flop like that.

[Kimo White Devil]

why QQ, I am a bad TAG and I 4-bet QQ often OOP. Maybe thats why I am a bad TAG?

with position, I most often call with QQ tho...

maybe my hand reading skillz sucks but I just cant see QQ here...

[derosnec]

12 combos of AQ

we weight his range to favor JJ/QQ of course

so, to do so, let's say we reduce the number of AQ combos to three (including AcQc of course)

you have 34% of equity against this range of 9 total combos. it is barely +EV to get all in with this tight range. add in a few other hands he could do this with (draws, more AQ hands, etc) and you're looking even better. adding QJs to his range doesn't make much difference for the calculations either (like 1% difference)

[Jay Riall]

Gelford - people are way, way more likely to call a 3bet with JJ/QQ than to 4bet them imo. At every single stake.