Combo Draw, too fast?

[ocdscale]

No reads on villain, but he was running 25/1.4/2 (yes, PFR of 1.35%) over ~70 hands.

My understanding is that a lot of value from combo draws is fold equity, was shoving too much?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($15.10)</font>
SB ($47.15)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($25.70)</font>
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.60) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25.95 (All-In)</font>

[Bramsterdam]

A OESFD is favorite to anything but a set. Plan to get it AI as fast as possible, so this is pretty standard. I might reraise to ~$8 and go AI on the turn.

You actually have FE, since villain did NOT raise pf.

[FullyBoat]

I would probably just call here.

Villain just basically gave you a free card with a giant draw, so why not keep the pot manageable until we have more than ten high?

[jschaud]

I think shoving is a little much. Raising to $5 or so gets 1/3 of his stack in and a PSB on the turn puts him all in. If you get there on the turn he may call. If you dont get there on the turn, you may push him off a weak queen.

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably just call here.

Villain just basically gave you a free card with a giant draw, so why not keep the pot manageable until we have more than ten high?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we're more than 50% to win this hand. We want all the money in here. Plus, if we push it hard, he might fold, and we get free money.

[IshiP2U]

No raise preflop?

(Yes, I know you're "out of position a drawing hand")

[FullyBoat]

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I would probably just call here.

Villain just basically gave you a free card with a giant draw, so why not keep the pot manageable until we have more than ten high?

[/ QUOTE ]


Because we're more than 50% to win this hand. We want all the money in here. Plus, if we push it hard, he might fold, and we get free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing $26 into a ~2.50 pot with a OESFD is +EV?

[IshiP2U]

That depends on Villain's calling range....

[Keys Myaths]

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I would probably just call here.

Villain just basically gave you a free card with a giant draw, so why not keep the pot manageable until we have more than ten high?

[/ QUOTE ]


Because we're more than 50% to win this hand. We want all the money in here. Plus, if we push it hard, he might fold, and we get free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing $26 into a ~2.50 pot with a OESFD is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Whether it's AS EV+ as other options is up for debate, but it is 100% EV+ against everything but sets.

[prodonkey]

Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[creamfillin]

You're losing value. You can either take a cheap card/3-bet and built a pot, get some fold equity/shove and get called only by 2 pair+ which you're like flipping against, and I don't really play poker to flip coins for cash

[sputum]

I hate shoving here. He's only in for 60BB he's minraised a drawy flop and he's passive. Why flip this guy when you can get him calling thin when you hit and have lots of options when you miss the turn?
FE is OK but the pot is still pretty small when you shove and if this guy's as bad as all the pointers indicate why not try taking him down properly?

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this. reraise to 5$ should have as much FE as a shove. If you AI he might put you on a big draw.

[poker_n00b]

Shoving is mathematically definately correct here. In terms of metagame... no. Unless you shove bluffs and sets here as well, you become predictable to some extent.

[prodonkey]

Why is it mathemically correct? don't say things like that then not back it up.. and nobody ever plays a set like that.

[poker_n00b]

It is mathematically correct because against his assumed calling range you are not a big underdog. Besides you still have some folding equity to pick up those $$$ already in the pot.

Do you want me to show you calculations?

Second, that is exactly what I mean, nobody plays a set like this. So when I see this his push I can deduce that he has no set and therefore some of his folding equity is gone because I may call him now more lightly, with QJ for example.

Instead if he had raised to $5 I should be worried about a set in his range because that is a line a set would take. So I might fold AQ or something, so T9s gains because he played his hand in the way a set would play it.

[prodonkey]

I did a lot of calculating.. Say he folds 60% of time vs 80% AI that's a 1.26 vs 1.68 ev on flop. so fairly small

Now say on the turn we give him a 25%? chance of folding some missed draw or he thinks his middle pair is no good now or he misclicks or whatever.. maybe this is too high or low.. not sure.

So we're going to hit our hand what 35% of time? he's going to fold 25% of time.. and the other 40% he's calling the all in and we're going to be something like a 65/35 dog.

The ev from him folding on the turn is 12 * .25 or whatever % he's going to fold. So in this case 3.

The ev from us hitting has to be seperated to when he folds and when he calls. 35% * 30pot * .75 = 7.875

35% * 12pot * .25= 1.05

And finally when we miss the turn and get our money in as a 65/35 dog for the $30 pot 40% of the time.

65% * -30 *.4= -7.8 + 35% * 30 * .4= 4.2

add all that garbage up and it's 9.585.. can adjust that down a little for less fold equity on turn if you don't think he'll fold that often after calling the 5$.

If I made an error somewhere please correct me. This all assumes he doesn't have a hand that can suck out on us if we hit.. so you could knock a few points of ev off there for that.

I love doing ev calculations at 9am when I haven't been to bed! WOOOOOOOOOO

[prodonkey]

Yes i'd like to see your calculations where it's correct to win a $2 pot with a big hand

[Ace0fSpades]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[poker_n00b]

prodonkey, i stated that pushing on the flop is +EV, not that it is EV maximizing...

Proof that shoving the flop has a positive mathematical expectation:

pot size at decision point shoving all in: 2.1
stacks at decision point of going all in: 13.85

tight range of hands that he calls an all-in with:
QQ, 78, Q8, 88, 77

Our equity against this range is: 47.73% of a 13.85 x 2 + 2.1 = 29.8 pot.
That sets our EV at 14.22 - 13.85 = 0.374

However this is only if he has this range of hands 100% of the time. If we relax
this assumption by putting more weaker hands into his calling range and making
him fold preflop to a push some % of the time, THEN our EV goes up.

I admit, that the EV of pushing is marginal, but it is positive. I expected it
to be somewhat higher than that though.


Equity calcs:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.032 secs 835,312 games/sec

Board: Qc 7h 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.733% 47.73% 00.00% 12759 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 52.267% 52.27% 00.00% 13971 0.00 { QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, 8c8d, 8c8s, 8d8s,
7c7d, 7c7s, 7d7s, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qs8s, 8c7c, 8d7d, 8s7s, Qd8c, Qd8s, Qh8c,

Qh8d, Qh8s, Qs8c, Qs8d, 8c7d, 8c7s, 8d7c, 8d7s, 8s7c, 8s7d }

</pre><hr />

[poker_n00b]

prodonkey, you have to use pokerstove and assign villain some hands to come up with a more precise equity for our hand. i think ur ev calculations are off.

On a second note, nowhere did I state that it is correc to win $2 with a big hand.

Besides, 50% equity hand is not a big hand. The hand has great potential to win $$$ when it hits though. Big hand has at least 70% all in equity on the flop in my books.


peace out

[Remas367]

Thar depands on vilans calling range...

[MirroRobin]

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Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[Triggerle]

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Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with waiting for the turn to shove is that your equity dramatically decreases with only one card to come. So no, it is not standard.

[Antinome]

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Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

We should be pushing flops on draw heavy boards with sets so we can push here. That said, both a PSR and a call will end up being +EV here, as long as we don't start pushing the money in once our equity drops versus an opponent that already indicated a propensity for calling. That's a good way to lose money.

Versus a sophisticated opponent where pushing will look like a draw and a PSR will look like a protection raise, maybe a raise is better. Versus a calling station who will pay off even if the obvious draw comes in maybe a call is better.

But standard? Standard is pushing.

[Sean Fraley]

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Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with waiting for the turn to shove is that your equity dramatically decreases with only one card to come. So no, it is not standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

On a blank turn we are only 2:1 to win the hand, against a player who likes his hand enough to call a nice reraise on the flop with it. Now we are in a nasty position since the pot is big enough that villain is most likely committed, and just about anyway that this goes down we are now losing a big pot one third of the time. This is why trying to felt on the flop is best. If villain folds, we managed to take down the pot without actually making a hand. If villain calls, we are getting his stack enough to be profitable.

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

We should be pushing flops on draw heavy boards with sets so we can push here. That said, both a PSR and a call will end up being +EV here, as long as we don't start pushing the money in once our equity drops versus an opponent that already indicated a propensity for calling. That's a good way to lose money.

Versus a sophisticated opponent where pushing will look like a draw and a PSR will look like a protection raise, maybe a raise is better. Versus a calling station who will pay off even if the obvious draw comes in maybe a call is better.

But standard? Standard is pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not for me.
Although your hand equity decreases with one card to come your fold equity increases (because the pot is bigger) but I don't think it compensates (he won't fold the turn enough) so I'm just being nitty /images/graemlins/grin.gif
I like a call best as I seem to get pot bets called thin when I hit and a cheap turn card when I don't. The $5 raise I'm not keen on and if I had to raise I probably would shove.
It just seems silly semibluffing him out or flipping with him when you can often get a good look at the turn and river cards (I might bet the turn small on a blank so another minraise leaves me well-in) against someone who seems to be non-professional /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Let him make turn and river mistakes. I bet he's good at it /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ocdscale]

Thanks on all this input guys, I (admittedly) did not think through all of this when making my decision.
I basically saw a big combo draw (that I got for free in BB, sunk cost I know, but still...) and wanted to win it then and there.

Calling his min-raise is definitely the safest play since I'm getting a free card on a massive draw, but it seems like I'm losing a lot of equity if the turn blanks. I may be a favorite on the flop, so it seems like I should be building the pot.

After reading these suggestions, I like a reraise to $5 a lot, but I'm lost on how to play turn, C/c on blank turn (2/images/graemlins/club.gif) seems to turn my hand face up. I'll usually have odds to call close to a PSB with (hopefully) 15 clean outs, so do I c/c Turn and c/f River if I miss? (Note, because Villain is short, PSB from him is a shove, so suppose he had 100BB instead)

On a side note, don't I want Villain to put me on a (weaker) draw, as opposed to something like a set? His calling range should be wider if he puts me on something like T/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif than if he thought I flopped a set/two pair.

Lot of good analysis here, btw. I'm curious to see how it all pans out.