VB this river? - 50NL

[Kasane]

I had no real read on villain. He seemed to like betting pot a lot, I'd seem him donk flop for full pot and get folds fairly often. I hadn't seen him show down much. Thoughts on other streets welcome.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $47.70
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $115.75</font>
UTG: $63.10
CO: $153.90
BTN: $61.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5.25) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($5.25) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $5.25</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, CO folds, SB calls $8.75

<font color="black">River:</font> ($33.25) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero ...

[FullyBoat]

I think betting the flop (2/3 pot) on hands like this and seeing what happens will make your play on further streets much earlier.

As played, I probably put the villain all-in on the river. If he has AJ, he'd probably get it in on the turn since he's pretty short. To me this looks like a worse jack or maybe 99 / 10's ?

[fees]

lol @ not betting the flop dont bet the river

[Keys Myaths]

Wow, did you really not bet this flop?

[Chomp]

For me, pf is meh. I mean a fold is probably too nitty, and a 3b means we are committing ourselves to a biggish pot, 3 way, OOP with a hand that can get us in a lot of trouble. So maybe a call is ok, but I hate these spots.

And flop kinda bears this out...we have hit one of our cards and yet still really have no clue about the relative strength of our hand. A $3.25 bet might win it there and then, but you'd hate a call and a lot of turns are nasty for us. No idea which is the most EV move.

You have shown a ton of strength on the turn and villain calls anyway. I think his range to b/c must be: {AJ, QJ, JT, maybe TT, 99, FD+overs, maybe AK stabbing} That said, it is very hard to understand why those J hands don't bet flop. Hmmmmmmm. Odd.

So on river if we vbet (say 15) we are called by probably 2 worse hands and one better one. We fold out missed draws/TT/random pairs. We get c/r by random monsters, which is very unlikely. It's doubtful he'd look us up with a bluff catcher given turnaction.

Meh, I check behind as I think the vb is too thin and we are not called by enough worse hands to make it good. That said, I am starting to think 88-TT might be villain's holding here.

(Opinion, not advice).

[Kasane]

Yes, I really didn't bet this flop. And I don't think it's stupid. We've got a pf raiser in position against us. We've probably got the better hand. We're going to usually see a c-bet on this flop, pick that off and see the turn and play from there.

Betting out on this flop, and we can easily get pushed off the best hand (I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU) or be playing a bigger pot than we need to with a marginal hand OOP. C/c is much better IMO. I used to bet this flop often to balance out my donks with a set -- but I realized I was often burning money doing so.

What are you looking for when you bet this flop? A fold? A call? A raise from your opponent? None of those outcomes are particularly good.

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
(I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU)

[/ QUOTE ]

I make a lot of money off people like you.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU)

[/ QUOTE ]

I make a lot of money off people like you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you do -- I doubt it. Works a ton, try it. It's opponent specific, obviously. Lot of people donk weak made hands like second pair, top pair weak kicker. They donk to see if they're good against your pf raise, or if you have a big pair. You raise, they fold. Next hand.

This post wasn't particularly about the flop play, but I guess that's what it turned into. I've gone your guys' way in the past, bet flop -- and I've come around to the c/c flop line. I want to play a medium size pot with a medium size hand. Betting this flop does almost nothing for me. I'm OOP with a made hand, I don't have a flush draw or a 4x hand. I'm not putting my stack in for TP2K. I donk this flop I'm bloating a pot with little chance of improvement OOP. If I check and it gets checked around, I can bet turn and reasonably get calls from 55-QQ, flush draws, and a lot of other stuff on the turn and river. If I c/c a bet from villain, I see turn and can act accordingly.

What does betting get you on this flop? Value from JT-QJ? 55-QQ? How many streets are we going to be betting for value OOP? I don't think you get more than 2 streets out of TP2K, and I'm more likely to go with getting them on turn, river with some good post flop play. Or on the flop and river, skipping turn.

[IshiP2U]

How fast did Villain call and then check the river? If I bet here it probably wouldn't be for value in the bet itself but it would be a weak bet to induce a river c/r AI bluff which I would be happy to call if I thought the previous action indicated villain was on a draw, etc....

[czGLoRy]

value bet flop and value bet river

[Kasane]

Wasn't instant -- and didn't time down that far either. I don't think we can induce bluffs at 50NL.

Really cool suggestion though -- 5-10 bucks like I was on a draw or something and hope he pushes? A draw is a big part of his range. Any J he has leans towards the AJ though. If I was playing one table I might try something fancy that doesn't cost me much (unlike FPS stuff that does) like this. Hmmm.

[IshiP2U]

Well I think it's a big generalization to say you can't induce bluffs "at 50NL", I mean it depends on the dynamics between you and Villain and the type of Villain. This is also why I would encourage you to only play as many tables as you can pay attention to (it may be one it may be eight), but I understand using uNL poker as an income strategy to build your BR as you aren't punished very much for not having good reads. But yes the idea of this play would be to make it look like you hoped he was on a draw and you some mid pocket pair or something marginal. Bad move to try against unknown villain though. Those were just my thoughts on betting the river, but in a vacuum I have no idea if Villain is advanced enough to check raise here or not. I guess if you have no reads of your own and are using PA HUD for that I would look at how often Villain goes to showdown versus how often villain wins at showdown and villain's c/r river percentage and river agression or something like that.

[Kasane]

I actually haven't used a PAHUD for 5 months now -- at first just because I was fooling around playing on my mac and too busy at work to take poker seriously. I found that playing without has vastly improved my game. I may not get instant "reads" from history, but reading how someone's actually playing is more accurate than stats. Coming from limit originally, I thought stats were the best thing since sliced bread -- NL has taught me different.

I was too new to the table for this specific hand for something that fancy to work. It's the rare beast -- though they exist -- that you can induce a c/r bluff out of at 50NL.

Still wondering on my vb or no. Most of his range is simply going to fold that river. I might get a hero call out of Jcxc, QJ though.

[IshiP2U]

I agree that using no HUD helps your game. Okay, so I guess the problem is this: You think that Villain will fold most of the time, but you may get a hero call as you say. However, in pricing in a hero call you need to bet just big enough that you don't get cr/ed off your hand (I'm used to games where you c/r with air on the river isn't that uncommon if a river bet looks weak) but just small enough so that it's actually value bet and he calls with QJ or whichever worse jack you think he has. Without prior experience I would probably check behind here and gain some information on Villain's opening range for the CO and how lightly Villain is willing to call a turn raise on a draw heavy board. That's the argument I could see for checking, and it seems a fairly strong one.

[Kasane]

I'm not playing CO, it's SB. Kinda big difference.

[IshiP2U]

Sorry, I'm tired and I misread your post. Yes that's a huge difference and makes a much stronger case for checking, as SB has just seen you raise into two people on a paired board, making your flop check possibly look liked a missed c/r to some. I think checking, showing it down, and gaining some information against an unknown is probably a good idea here. Sorry about misreading the action.

(Depending on Villain the idea about inducing bluff still stands though, and it's a nice play if the situation is right.)

[IshiP2U]

So, what happened?

[Pirelli]

I don't raise the turn here, I don't think you're strong enough to do so.

As played, I definitely check behind on the river.

[ASC-what]

i don't like the turn raise... just call and bet or call most rivers.

but as played, i'd VB river.

[Kasane]

To those who don't like the turn raise -- please say why.

Once we've checked the flop (I think it's good - others don't) we have to raise this turn. We've under-repped the strength of our hand up to now. The range on my opponent is strong J, 4x SB special, mid pair or flush draw -- flush draws don't reraise you here and the only thing that reraises is the 4x or aggro J, or some other slowplayed monster (unlikely - it's not really in my calcs). That strong a bet into a checked around pot makes me think that the range leans towards weak J, mid-pair and flush draw. All of those hand I either want to raise for value, or charge to draw.

Remember, CO is still in the hand and we've got a two tone flop on the turn. CO's check means he's got whiffed high cards or suited connector. I think all pairs bet that flop. I'm charging anyone drawing some money here. If this is a mistake, tell me why. Pot control is the only reason I can think of, and that doesn't work here if it's still 3-way. And since I'll act behind to SB on the river, I control pot better by r/f here and checking behind on river.

Results:

I checked behind SB on the river and he had the QJos. MHIG. Kicked myself for no more value on river though.

[dodgybob]

I don't have a problem with the flop check, as long as you aren't raising the turn.

You're raise on the turn is a bluff. If you are betting river after that raise its also a bluff. If you had just called the turn you might be able to put in a small vb on the river.

[sww]

I'd like to say a word about the turn raise. It depends. Sometimes there are situations, or villains, that you can get called by relatively weak hands. Sometimes only better hands will call. If you never raise on turn unless you have a monster and the villain is solid, then I hate the turn raise. Then again, you made the turn raise and I have to assume you had good reasons so I would say you have to valuebet the river too. By checking you are almost admitting that you were wrong and turn raise was too strong line for that place.

[dodgybob]

I'd rather raise the turn with air than with KJ.

[IshiP2U]

Just because your hand was good doesn't mean you should've made a value bet though....I would just keep that in mind. Looks like the SB is overvaluing mediocre hands on draw heavy boards, that's a nice read to have.

[IshiP2U]

Without any reads I don't think a turn raise is a big mistake since your line looks so weird now, and much of the time you will be protecting yourself against getting bluffed on the river. Knowing what you know now about SB, I think playing AJ this way and overbet shoving the river on a fake bluff isn't the worst move in the world either, but that also may be a terrible move....

Adam