$50NL - AK river problem

[Hanibbal]

I don't have a read on villain, but someone limp / calling PF OTB is bad like 99% of the time.
How much should I valuebet on this river? Or is check/calling better to induce a bluf from villains (most likely) missed draw?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $25.35
CO: $49.75
Button: $145.55
Hero: $64.40
BB: $12.15

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($7.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($17.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, Button calls.

River: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($41.5, 2 players)
Hero ?

[Chomp]

I always have a hard time working this out too.

You put him on some kind of missed draw, but I don't think that's all his range here. I would have thought after his turn call, QT, KQ, KT are all in his range, as are AT, A5 and maybe J9. Those are all reasonable btn limp-call hands IMO for an unknown. Premiums are unlikely.

His missed draws - considering flop/turn action and rainbow flop - are Ax, AQ, AJ, KJ, TJ. His other random hands I suppose could include Q9, K9, 9T.

So I actually think you may not be in as good shape as you think here. Perhaps you are a bit ahead of his range, but I don't think by a lot.

If you bet, he calls all 2p hands IMO, but I doubt he'll bet all of them them as often if checked to. He checks behind with all 1 pair hands, ie the hands you are beating, and he may indeed fold them to a bet.

So here, I go for c/c on the basis he'll sometime bluff, he'll not always bet his 2p hands and he won't always call his 1p hands &lt; AK.

I suck hard so please take this as opinion rather than advice.

[jonyy6788]

I c/c because it allows him to bruff us

I may even consider checking the turn...keep the pot small

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

i dont like this spot at all...you are getting stacked by anything that beats you and getting zero value from anything that you beat...(if he missed a draw, he folds, if he has a set, youre stacked) and i doubt that he is just calling calling calling with some weak pair and is willing to pay off unless he is REALLY bad(although some nl 50 players are) moral of the story, no reason to cbet this flop OOP because you could be getting rope a doped for your whole stack...this flop texture is just to scary to cbet.

that said, i have been in this situation many times and the pot on the flop is juicy enough to want to fire out a cbet... but try to assess the future consequences of the hand before betting (especially because being OOP sucks)

[Waingro]

I like a bet of $20. He checks behind every one pair hand you beat, bets 2pair+. Also what missed draws with no showdown value could he have? I think he bluffs very rarely in the end. If you would check, I like a c/f to anything reasonable, I really doubt he fires big with KJ on the river.

[china_hard]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a bet of $20. He checks behind every one pair hand you beat, bets 2pair+. Also what missed draws with no showdown value could he have? I think he bluffs very rarely in the end. If you would check, I like a c/f to anything reasonable, I really doubt he fires big with KJ on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting betting $20 and folding to a re-raise? Thats not really possible giving the pot odds you give yourself there.

I would definitely take a weak line here, which is something I rarely do. I do like to c-bet this flop as you did. However, I would c/c the turn when your K hits, up to around $12, and then be prepared to c/f the river to a large bet. Your primary aim here should be to avoid playing a big pot with just TPTK oop to a button limp-caller.

[dirtylobster]

I check river and call a small bet.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like a bet of $20. He checks behind every one pair hand you beat, bets 2pair+. Also what missed draws with no showdown value could he have? I think he bluffs very rarely in the end. If you would check, I like a c/f to anything reasonable, I really doubt he fires big with KJ on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting betting $20 and folding to a re-raise? Thats not really possible giving the pot odds you give yourself there.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero would have $25 left, I think we could safely disregard pot odds and fold if villain pushes. If we check river and villain bets something like $15-20, it is very easy to talk oneself into a call, even though villains betting range is soo much narrower than his calling range. I think that would be a bigger mistake than betting $20 and folding to a push.

Edit: Obviously betting and simply c/f is pretty close.