Wakefield in a dome, I missed it again

[youtalkfunny]

Will somebody please bump this thread next time Wake is scheduled to pitch in a dome? I'm tired of saying, "I should have bet that."

[Moneyline]

Why do you suspect Wakefield will pitch worse in a dome? The only "dome" angle I know of is that groundball pitchers have it a bit tougher on a fast rug because it's more difficult for infielders to get to sharply hit balls. Wakefield is not a groundball pitcher, so this wouldn't apply to him... and besides, the new astro turf is a lot slower than the old type.

Back when I was seriously capping games, the main adjustment to make when Wakefield pitched was to alter the Red Sox's projected offensive production to account for Wakefield's "personal caddy" being substantially inferior at the plate to Jason Varitek. Also, Wakefield induces (or at least used to induce) a bit more popups than typical pitchers, so he would fare slightly better in parks that have a lot of foul territory. I never found that these angles alone were worth justifying a bet for or against him.

So anyway... why do you think it's important if he's pitching in a dome?

[Limpfold]

He don't expect him to pitch worse, he expect him to pitch better since his knuckler for some reason gets extra movement in a dome.

[Moneyline]

[ QUOTE ]
He don't expect him to pitch worse, he expect him to pitch better since his knuckler for some reason gets extra movement in a dome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are there data to back this up, and is the sample size non-trivial. I don't mean to be rude, but in my experience angles in baseball that aren't backed up by data are almost 100% -EV. Unless the stats are extraordinarily skewed, I would guess Wakefield (and other knucklers) haven't pitched enough in domes for the data to be worthwhile.

[Spence]

Knuckle ballers tend to get more movement when there is wind etc, but also on that same breath, he may be able to control it better in a more controlled environment.

I'd love for somebody to research this, and get back to us. I'm busy programming a 'system' so I'm a bit busy.

[Limpfold]

I didn't watch the game, just read the postgame commentaries on ESPN where the following was said:

"Wakefield has always had success indoors at Minnesota, so much so that Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has often talked longingly about adding a knuckler to his staff."

"I love pitching inside, obviously," Wakefield said. "And I like pitching in here. ... I can't explain it. I really don't know, but it's one of those things where the ball moves a little bit more here."

"This Metrodome, I think, is his friend," Gardenhire said. "The ball does some pretty good things in here, moves around. We've seen his ball darting and diving before. Doesn't make it any easier to hit him."


However I found his career stats in the Metrodome before this game.

G GS W L CG IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA

10 10 6 3 1 63.2 54 34 31 6 22 51 4.38 1.19 .224

Not particularly impressive but then again there could be other factors to weigh in before drawing to many conclusions about those stats.

[Your Mom]

Dome team should sign him

[Moneyline]

[ QUOTE ]
Not particularly impressive but then again there could be other factors to weigh in before drawing to many conclusions about those stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limpfold, you certainly deserve an "A" for effort for digging that up. I think you are drawing the right conclusion too. Given the sample size, any major league pitcher could have put up those stats.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
Dome team should sign him

[/ QUOTE ]

When he was negotiating his most recent contract, the only teams he would consider signing with were Boston, and any team that played its home games indoors (Min, Tor, Tam, etc).

Sharpies have been onto the "Knuckler in a Dome" angle for years. There's some debate as to whether or not the oddsmakers have adjusted for this, and negated the advantage by shading the numbers.

Wake's other dome start this year, at Toronto:

7 IP, 4 H, 1 R.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
Limpfold, you certainly deserve an "A" for effort for digging that up. I think you are drawing the right conclusion too. Given the sample size, any major league pitcher could have put up those stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you also find his career numbers at the SkyDome? Trop? Any other indoor stadiums?

[Limpfold]

In SkyDome/Rogers Centre:

G GS W L CG IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
22 15 5 3 0 103.2 107 61 52 9 50 83 4.51 1.51 .268


In Tropicana Field:

G GS W L CG IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
17 11 7 0 0 83.0 54 33 22 8 32 61 2.39 1.04 .185

Maybe this is more due to the Rays inability than any other thing.

[youtalkfunny]

Or, more likely, that they can't open up the roof in Tampa like they can in Toronto. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[youtalkfunny]

Thursday night, at Toronto, vs Halladay.

Somebody let me know if the roof is opened or closed, plz.

[PropPlayer]

Came here to bump thread and ask same, but see you already got it covered. I'm sure someone will post before I know but I'll be in MA and will check the pregame show if no one else posts 1st.

[PropPlayer]

I'm taking a little at +133 now and going to add a little if dome is closed.

[Scary_Tiger]

Rain is in the forecast... and Ricciardi says he plans on keeping the dome open even if it's pouring rain whenever Wakefield starts.

I suspect it's a bluff, and with Halladay going and Wakefield a predominantly flyball pitcher, it makes sense to close the dome. The open dome in Toronto tends to help flyball pitchers.

[brendanb438]

Bump, any word on this? Wakefield is now +141ish.

-Brendan

[PropPlayer]

I've been watching for 20 min and they still have not said.

[PropPlayer]

The roof is open

[brendanb438]

Well good start for Wakefield, he got out of the bases loaded situation with 1 out in the first. Now in the top of the 3rd 4-0 Boston!

[PropPlayer]

7-0 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

That double play in 1st was nice. I always love strike him out, throw him out double plays.

[rafiki]

I took them ! couldn't resist them as the dogs !

[youtalkfunny]

Wake's cruising so far tonight!

[MrFeelNothin]

bump


Wake and the BoSox visiting TB and Kazmir tomorrow.

[youtalkfunny]

Thanks, I meant to bump this, but for a different reason:

BE CAREFUL WITH THIS. Kazmir has been great his last two starts vs Boston (the only times I ever see him pitch). I think his last one was something like 6 IP, 0 R, and about 2 H, before the bullpen coughed it up.

[youtalkfunny]

Kazmir's last two starts vs Boston:

8/14/07 6 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K (no decision, Sox win 2-1)
7/29/07 6 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K (no decision, Rays win 5-2)

The July game was a duel vs Dice-K. The August was a duel vs Lester.

[MrFeelNothin]

Kazmir has been in his 2006 form for the last month, which the line takes into account.

[MicroBob]

Wakefield has a new catcher for tonight's game.

Cash played catch with Wakefield over the weekend and believes he's ready to handle his knuckleball for the game.

Who knows if he's actually correct or not OR how comfortable Wakefield might feel throwing to this new catcher.

TB most certainly will try to be more patient waiting for their pitch if they can. They certainly are well aware of how well Wakefield has done there.

Should be interesting to see.

Still though, even considering how well Kazmir has done, I like a BOS bet here as they are by far the superior team of course. This is their 3rd time facing Kazmir in less than a month. After his previous 2 dominating performances I expect the BOS batters to be more deliberate in solving the puzzle this time and to come up with more success than they have been showing.

Chances of Wakefield still getting his dome-swerve on to match Kazmir zero for zero if necessary combined with BOS being the better team in the first place adds up to me liking BOS as slightly better than a 50/50 shot which is about where the line is.
I think there's barely value on the BOS side.

[youtalkfunny]

Tampa's bullpen is so horrible, I think we've got to like Boston at pick'em.

The Sawx may not have scored on Kazmir on either of those last two starts, but they did run up his pitch count to the high-90's, getting him out of there after 6 IP.

I'll go against the TB bullpen tonight at a bargain price. We'll miss Mirabelli, but his absence won't hurt us nearly as much as Tampa's bullpen will hurt them.

[MrFeelNothin]

True, Kazmir rarely ever makes it into the 7th inning.

Plus rotowire has this blurb:
"Expect the Rays to limit Kazmir to about six innings per start the rest of the way, and the Rays could shut Kazmir down a week or so early, or even sooner should should the slightest owie surface."

[MrFeelNothin]

BoSox now +104 on Pinny and +101 at 5dimes and BetJm,
TB +100 at BoDog.

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
bump


Wake and the BoSox visiting TB and Kazmir tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

after missing out on this trend all year, i eagerly made this play following the bump, without considering all the variables mentioned later in the day

ignorance is bliss

[youtalkfunny]

I chickened out at the last minute, and instead of taking BOS and the under, I passed. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
Will somebody please bump this thread next time Wake is scheduled to pitch in a dome? I'm tired of saying, "I should have bet that."

[/ QUOTE ]

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Will somebody please bump this thread next time Wake is scheduled to pitch in a dome? I'm tired of saying, "I should have bet that."

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

In my best Monster Truck Show Hype Voice:

SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY!!!

And he won't have to face Kazmir this time, either.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Will somebody please bump this thread next time Wake is scheduled to pitch in a dome? I'm tired of saying, "I should have bet that."

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[youtalkfunny]

No Manny, no Youkilis, no Pedroia.

I wish I would've chickened out today.