50NL - TPTK IP, fairly deep, do you value raise on the river?

[chumofchance]

Villain is a solid TAG multi-tabler running at 15/13/3 or so over about 1k hands. We've been playing together quite a bit recently, and we both respect each other's game. I haven't seen him do anything too tricky yet, and if anything he seems to play made hands very fast rather than slow.

My stats are quite a bit looser, something like 20/17/3.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<u>SB: $85.05</u>
BB: $19.45
UTG: $64.20
<u>Hero (BTN): $254.35</u>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.50) Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, SB calls $3.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($11.50) 3http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($11.50) 5http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

Villain called my cbet very very quickly. Thoughts on what he might do that with? I'm not sure how many tables he was on but it was probably 6+, so I'm not sure how much the timing tell matters.

I checked behind on the turn because there weren't any draws to worry about, plus I wasn't really sure about his range. I think it's pretty unlikely he'd call another bet with a worse hand though.

On the river he leads for half pot. Does it make sense to raise for value? By checking the turn I think I've inreased the likelihood I could get a medium pair like 88-JJ to call another bet, whereas he probably would have folded those hands to a turn bet. But would he lead here with an underpair? Etc.

Thoughts?

[Veron]

I call here. I don't see him calling all too many hands you beat when you raise the river. And you have to let your hand go when he reraises.

I like your turn check.

[trixter23]

I like a call. No raise for the reasons veron stated. JJ hes probably going to fold to a raise. A set you're just going to get re raised. Kings will call you. The only thing you would be getting value out of is the weaker queen. I dont think he has a set since you said he plays hands fast. I'm gonna lean towards JJ or KQ

[CazicT]

If he is a decent player than I would probably just call since he probably is either bluffing or has a monster, with bluffing being more likely.

[Lurker.]

this seems like a pretty standard call. nice line OP.

[Antinome]

I would put in a smallish raise here- to 18- we are easily deep enough to dump it if he reraises.

The conversation that is this hand has been very short-

You said preflop that you have a good hand, you cbet flop which he knows you would do in any case, he called indicating 22+, QJ+ you checked turn and he says he can beat Ace high on river. A raise here only says, "No, actually the flop hit me, that wasn't a cbet." but doesn't promise any more than one pair, so worse one pair hands can still call. expect TT+, QJ+ to call, 22, 77 to reraise.

Calling is safe, but I think there is more value to be had here.

[HANABI]

raise/fold

[CazicT]

Wouldn't you normally expect hands like those to check the river hoping to induce a bluff against an aggressive hero?

I know you can't necassarily count 100% on that, I guess villian may value bet KQ or JQ on river hoping hero has a lower pair maybe. This might make sense especially since the hero checked the turn indicating he probably doesn't have a monster.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't you normally expect hands like those to check the river hoping to induce a bluff against an aggressive hero?

I know you can't necassarily count 100% on that, I guess villian may value bet KQ or JQ on river hoping hero has a lower pair maybe. This might make sense especially since the hero checked the turn indicating he probably doesn't have a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain absolutely would value bet QK and probably QJ some of the time. He can't be on a pure bluff because he would have to have called your flop bet with no hand and no draw OOP. No way a multitabling TAG is doing anything that elaborate, especially against a player he respects. The argument that he can only have a monster or air is wrong. He will often have a made hand that you beat that will at least sometimes call a small raise.

Having said that, I usually chicken out in these spots and just call, but this looks like a good spot to go for a value raise.

edit: Only problem here is how likely a 15/13 TAG is calling you preflop OOP with the hands you beat. Maybe that swings it back to a call.

[SirFelixCat]

Lemme start by saying that I normally don't read responses but I did this time, first.

That said, Antinome is perfectly correct, since OP played the hand well, imo. Now, that said, I must lose a TON of value as I NEVER raise the river in this spot. I just don't have that part of my game developed at ALL. I would love to delve deeper into this and learn how/when we can value raise on the river w/ 1 pr hands...I just don't know the spots.

And CazicT, no way does villain try and induce a bluff on the river here. We (OP) have given him ZERO idea that we will in fact lead the river as we checked behind on the turn. It very well could be a CB on the flop that whiffed and OP has given up, so if villain c/r river, I SNAP call this as there is no way he can anticipate a bet from us, since we checked behind on the river.

Therefore this very well could be a big hand, set etc, or a value bet from villain w/ KQ or the like. I really would like to discuss the idea of raising the river for value and getting worse hands to call though....

[Dilznoofus]

Maybe a raise isn't in order here but it can't be nonsense to consider it. Seems like very narrow thinking.

[renotime]

[ QUOTE ]
raise/fold

[/ QUOTE ]


i concur

[Kasane]

The only hands that will possibly call a raise are Qx and a set. Sets might reraise as well. There are more Qx hands than sets. You're ahead or splitting a vast majority of the time. It's thin, but I think this is a raise. I think that in the heat of the moment I snap call this nearly always and it might be a mistake.

Villain might think you're leveling him and call with KQ, QJ; or fold AQ figuring you can't raise a hand that doesn't beat his. AQ is probably 3betting pf too, though.

Villain doesn't possibly have JJ or KK as some have suggested. He would've reraised pf to a button raise with those stats. Won't call with the mid-pairs 88-JJ on the river I don't think.

[mrw8419]

On this board and that strong of a hand I am betting the turn here very often. I don't see why pot control is important considering villain hasn't shown any aggression. Another point is that if you never two barrel here with tptk then it takes away from two barreling with air more often.

On the river a call is fine, but if you ever bluff raise in that spot than raising tptk is very good. As played I think a raise looks very bluffy so you might get a curious call from villain, but oods are he's a nit and won't pay off without 1 pair being beat.

[Antinome]

Situations for river raises with 1 pair hands are rare. I believe this is one of them.

The first key for identifying these spots is information. There has to be a nearly complete lack of it, on both sides. Usually, by the time we reach the river, if we are competent, we have a fair idea whether our opponent has top pair, better than 1 pair, &amp;tc. Here we don't know, and he knows less! As a consequence, ranges are still pretty wide. We suspect he has a pair of some sort because he called on the flop, but it does not have to be TP. Because he's tight, I'll allow it is probably 88+ or a set, or a good Queen. We're way ahead of that range, and that's what makes calling so easy. Our range as far as he is concerned is infinite. We probably don't have a monster, but that's all he knows. A button raise, and a cbet? Please. We could have anything or nothing, and he knows it. Because there is an information void, there is still room to manouvre.

The second key is stack size. Stacks cannot be so shallow that we pot-commit ourselves to calling a push. Here we're both pretty deep, so we're good.

The third is player dependant. A lot of nits are incapable of calling a raise with 1 pair. I'm not naming names, but a lot of them post here. If we're playing one of them, we should under no circumstances raise. They will only call when we are beat.

Now a lot of those same nits engage in methodological solipsism- they assume their opponents play like they play and will therefore not call with 1 pair. This is not true. Even otherwise good players caught in the information vacuum that is this hand will make the wrong choice, and call a raise with hands as bad as a pair of sixes.

[Isura]

24, fold to a raise.

[chumofchance]

Wow, thanks everyone, some of the responses have been awesome. Wish I had started posting on 2p2 a couple months ago /images/graemlins/smile.gif