50NL; KK reraised pot; not best flop and he's raising me

[Lego05]

Villian is 15.03/9.59/1.64 over 386 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($56.80)
Hero ($50.70)
BB ($65.55)
UTG ($45.95)
MP ($51.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($17) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[mrw8419]

As much as I hate folding overpairs someone that tight and passive has a range that is heavily weighted towards hands that have you beat.

[Peter Harris]

you are beating QJs/o, JTs/o, AQ, JJ, diamond draws (assuming JJ, AKs&lt; don't 4b pf. I will omit AKs figuring villain to 4b PF)
you are seriously thin vs KJ, QQ, TT, 99.
you have some hidden outs vs QT, T9.

Let's stove it some!

Board: 9d Td Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.101% 52.79% 00.31% 27700 162.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 46.899% 46.59% 00.31% 24446 162.00 { QQ-99, AdQd, AdJd, QTs+, JTs, T9s, QTo+, JTo }

Assuming villain folds JTo, QJo, QTo PF:

Board: 9d Td Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.174% 43.87% 00.30% 10859 74.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 55.826% 55.53% 00.30% 13743 74.00 { QQ-99, AdQd, AdJd, QTs+, T9s }


So it goes to show, omit a few hands you beat and you're getting toasted. I guess KQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is also possible.

Anyway, this is probably one of those situations it's sometimes alright to fold, since you are sometimes ahead of 1 pair, or sometimes catch better 2/get a straight, but sometimes you're toast or they have the equity to flush on you.

I fold.


EDIT: LOLz forgot to add KJ into the mix. Only a few combos of that, i know, but they have you smoked, so it's an even easier fold.

Board: 9d Td Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.390% 33.67% 01.72% 10999 563.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 64.610% 62.89% 01.72% 20545 563.00 { QQ-99, AdQd, AdJd, KJs, QTs+, T9s, KJo }


better range i think and now an easy fold.

[Lordy]

These ranges are waaay too wide. We are talking about a 16/9 nit... Ruling out AK,AA and KK is a mistake. He's in position and can definitely call with these hands.

Pre-flop, I'd say a wide range is 77+,AQs,AK.
Flop raise = sets, KK+. If he plays decent draws aggressively, add JJ and AdKd.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]


Board: 9d Td Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.390% 33.67% 01.72% 10999 563.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 64.610% 62.89% 01.72% 20545 563.00 { QQ-99, AdQd, AdJd, KJs, QTs+, T9s, KJo }


better range i think and now an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
You realize off course that with 35% equity Hero is priced in? Which would make this a trivially easy push.

[mrw8419]

A 15/9's range is soooo small this situation is so way behind or slightly ahead that I don't like getting my stack in there.

[EMc]

A 15/9 is not doing this with JJ often, if ever. Easy fold here.

Lets hear some discussion into checking the flop here.

[munkey]

Villan's range is 99+, AQs+ , and may be some SCs

Vs this range you only really beat AQ/JJ and I doubt he'll get all aggro with AQ unless it's :dimaond: s

So 99+, AQd, AKd - it' a set/AA at least but if hes aggro with draws e.t.c then u can add JJ/ NFD and may be AKo/SCs.


I would stove it but i expect your ~ 30/70 vs most of these- as Lucky Jim shows in his calc. I agree with Lordy's range but I think I would fold here.

BTW villan must know you have QQ+, AKs but at least AA and says he can beat that so I fold.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
A 15/9 is not doing this with JJ often, if ever. Easy fold here.

Lets hear some discussion into checking the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop's really draw heavy and I c-bet most of the time after 3 betting. I doubt we get him to bluff very often. I don't really think checking the flop is a very good option.


And btw looking at this hand here I really hope I folded to that raise. I'm not at home so I can't check and I don't rememebr what I did.