50NL - I have a read, should I go with it? Or, check these EV calcs

[chumofchance]

Before you read any further, let me just go on record as saying "I know I know, you're not supposed to bluff at microstakes."

But having said that...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $151
<u>BB: $48</u>
<u>Hero (UTG): $58.35</u>
MP: $51.75
CO: $49
BTN: $69

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is running at 24/22/7 over 45 hands. He seems to have at least some idea of what he's doing, and he's been aggressive so far. My stats are very tagy, 19/16/3ish probably. </font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Ahttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.25) 2http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $15</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

Ok, I think it's pretty obvious the BB doesn't have 99. He probably thinks he's doing an awesome job repping the boat, but his huge c/r on the flop is just silly. What do you think villain's actual range is? (Does he c/r here with an underpair? TT? Etc.)

Having put villain on a range, does anyone think a shove would be +EV? By shoving I'm representing something like JJ+, AJcc+, which is pretty reasonable given that I'm a TAG opening from UTG. Unless he decided to crazy slowplay preflop, this ought to crush his range.

More quantitatively, let's say he'll fold to a shove with probability X. Assuming that 99 and freak trip 2s are completely out of his range, I should have about 25% equity on the flop. The pot size after his c/r is about $22, and I've invested about $5. Therefore the EV of a shove is approximately (assuming 100BB starting stacks, etc.)

EV ~ 72X + (1-X)[0.25*100 - 0.75*45] ~ 81X - 9.

This means we only need a fold 11% of the time for shoving to be +EV! I don't know, personally I find this kind of amazing. Now the question is, do you think villain will fold this frequently?

Thoughts? Obvious errors?

[Larude]

You don't win 72 if he folds to your shove you win 22,5. With 25% equity this shove cannot be profitable unless you read him for complete air big time.

[prodonkey]

Hmmm.. I think you prolly have more than 25% equity first of all. Personally I think his check raise screams either some random 9, a mid pair or a club draw. Giving him all the suited connectors and 1 gappers down to 45... and every pair except 99 and 22 gives u about 29%.

I did not check your calculation as I'm too tired for math. I'm sure you have 10%+ fold equity, and you might even be ahead of quite a few of his hands, the problem is when you're ahead you're still flipping vs something like 45c. I guess it comes down to your gut.. do u think he has anything? While I'm not keen on shoving AQo on a whiffed flop, a play on a flop like that vs a very agressive person can have it's merits.

[chumofchance]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't win 72 if he folds to your shove you win 22,5. With 25% equity this shove cannot be profitable unless you read him for complete air big time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol woops, that's what happens when you do math at 6AM /images/graemlins/blush.gif

So to correct that goofy mistake, you need a fold approximately 9/31 = 29% of the time, right?

[prodonkey]

You don't have 30% fold equity. Cuz he'll look you up with those mid pairs sometimes.. and he's not folding the flush draws like ever, you may or may not get him to fold 9x.

[Dastone]

3 bet bluffs like this are very read dependant, and I don't know if you have a good enough one here to justify it. I still like it a bit though based on betting patterns, since villain is often probably not very strong here. So while he may have a mid pair, or a 9 and be trying to protect it, unfortunately with the size of his raise I think he may get stubborn, and despite believing that he may be beat, will end up calling anyways thinking he's committed now. Or some other nonsense where there's a lingering doubt in his mind that you have what you're representing. Plus any flush draw that villain played this way is not folding. So if you had a good read that villain has air here more often than a draw or marginal made hand then I would like it more. But if he has any of the other hands than I think it's much closer, and is completely up to your math and/or your read that he is the type to lay these hands down.

[mrw8419]

The yeti theorem says that 3 bets on paired boards are bluffs, so hopefully villain isn't a 2+2er. I just wonder how much FE you have against someone that aggressive.

[chumofchance]

Great, thanks everyone for the comments.

Follow-up question: if you actually did have one the hands I'm representing (something like JJ+, big club draws), would you shove?

[mrw8419]

Against a villain this aggressive I call flop and let him shove on turn.