AK flops top two, facing min raise on flop and turn shove

villain is 31/13/3.7, I`m 22/13/3.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($49.25)
SB ($56.50)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($50.30)</font>
UTG ($52.75)
MP ($36.15)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($170.95)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($38.50) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $33.8 (All-In)</font>,
Hero ?

[wildzer0]

Call, I usually push the flop.

[The_Bankroll]

I'd push the flop here. It's close but I think I call on the turn here too. but I suck at turn play, so don't listen to me.

[knifeparty]

I don't know if I would be able to lay this down. It would have to be based on what hands I've seen him show down until now. Out of the BB his range might be pairs 88+, AKs and AQs. Maybe KQ on occasion.

To me this does smell like he flopped a set. I want to say fold, but I don't know if I could be able to throw away top two pair without a concrete read. I'm calling here.

[wildzer0]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I would be able to lay this down. It would have to be based on what hands I've seen him show down until now. Out of the BB his range might be pairs 88+, AKs and AQs. Maybe KQ on occasion.

To me this does smell like he flopped a set. I want to say fold, but I don't know if I could be able to throw away top two pair without a concrete read. I'm calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's way too tight a range against a 31% - a fold BB to steal stat is helpful here too if it's a decent enough sample size, because many players in the 30-40% preflop range are often calling a range from the BB with nearly any two. You'll see something like AT or JJ or complete air way more than a flopped set IMO.

[knifeparty]

[ QUOTE ]
That's way too tight a range against a 31% - a fold BB to steal stat is helpful here too if it's a decent enough sample size, because many players in the 30-40% preflop range are often calling a range from the BB with nearly any two. You'll see something like AT or JJ or complete air way more than a flopped set IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm, yeah, I suppose you're right here. I don't know, at the time I was thinking 31% is still fairly tight, but after really thinking about it not so much.

Thanks for all the replies. Villain had 88, it smelled like a set. What else would he play like this ? However, I still think it was correct to call the turn shove getting more than 2 to 1.

[Bowlboy]

I think this guy could play A8s the same way, so I'm not getting away from this.

[knifeparty]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the replies. Villain had 88, it smelled like a set. What else would he play like this ? However, I still think it was correct to call the turn shove getting more than 2 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on it being correct to call. As already stated, you see a lot of trash in these situations at these limits as well.

He could have also been semi bluffing with A-X of clubs or even Q-10.

[tannenj]

push flop every time.

as played, call turn instantly. if you fold you HATE money.

[Pirelli]

I get it AI on the flop. Assuming you don't plan to fold, you are much better off doing this even against a set because you have better equity on the flop than turn if you get it AI there.

[sebbb]

*grunch*

to make a profitable call on the turn, you need:

33.8/(33.8+33.8+38.5)= 31.9% equity

What can villain possibly have?

AK
88
A8 maybe? he's pretty loose
AA KK sometimes?
a bluff/semi bluff QJ of hearts maybe?

If I keep it simple and it's 88,AKs,AKo, your equity is 31%

If I add some of the AA,KK,A8 and QJh, ie
AhAs,KhKs,88,AKs,Ah8h,As8s,QhJh,AKo,Ah8c,As8c,As8d

your equity is 48%


So even is he has only AK or 88, you are almost break even. Add a few weaker hands and the possbility of a bluff and it's a clear call IMO

now lemme read the other posts

[sebbb]

so after reading the other replies, it might seem a good idea to push on the flop. Maybe because you're going broke ayway against a set, which means that the villain's hand that matters is A8, so you don't want to lose the villain if a flush card comes on the turn???

btw cleaner, good job on moving up to 50NL

[creamfillin]

call with a smile on your face

As it's been said, flop is an easy 3BAI

[KLJ]

sure 3betting the flop is standard

if you flat the flop you have to instacall the turn

Ok, thanks again for all the replies.

[corsakh]

I only fold this when my AK flops bottom two.

[BoerfSt]

I also push this on the flop.But ye, most of the time you are against a set.No way I can fold this..

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
I only fold this when my AK flops bottom two.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Yeah push flop, you have good equity.

[Grim Reapa]

Push flop always.

As played your chips should be in the middle before his on the turn.