50 NL: Test Your Handreading Skills

[ButItWasSuited]

Ok Microstakers, tell me what you think villain has here.

Villain is 38/24 over a smallish sample. He likes to mix it up with me and probably gives me some credit. My only note on him is that he likes to slowplay (like most 50 NL retards...), but I don't think he would automatically slowplay as a default.

Some questions:

What is his range preflop when he cold calls a reraise?
What does his flop donk mean?
What do you put him on when he shoves the river?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $101.44
BB: $56.25
UTG: $19.54
MP: $52.86
CO: $88.05
HERO (BTN): $88.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, SB calls $6.75, 2 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($16.50) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($36.50) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $21</font>, SB calls $21

<font color="black">River:</font> ($78.50) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $63.44</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

Pot Size: $141.94

[RMLewis]

JJ, AK

[CobraGoat]

Villain has AJ. Final Answer.

[CobraGoat]

oooo, i wanna add JJ to my answer as well.

I think AK bets the turn again.

[mrw8419]

I say JJ. There's not too many sc in his range since he cold called a button 3 bet out of the sb. A 38/24 would probably reraise KK,AA,AK, and cold call 99-QQ. His flop lead is looking for a raise from AK. He c/c the turn because he no longer fears flush or straight draws, and shoves the river for value.

[Shizzle12345]

JJ? dunno what those numbers mean cos i dont use that software. If it means hes not really aggressive id put im on JJ or something, Or AK maybe. I dont think hell slowplay a set or TPTK. then when he hits his boat he slows down, and shoves the river.

KK could also be possible, he makes an afraid bet on the flop, to find out wether u got that ace, and then checks the turn, but cant fold his Kings. when his king hits, he pushes, cos he hopes u just got the ace?

I really dunno really, i do know that i would fold this on the river. If he's not that good u can get ur money in with better spots. I would also bet more on the turn.

[TheRenaissance]

Most people have some pocket pair they cant let go preflop, 22-99.
Depending on the level of donkishness, Ax is possible as well, definitely AJ+.
Again depending, but suited connectors are a possibility.

Many donks dont differentiate between a raise and a reraise preflop, meaning that they play anything they would play to a raise in a 3b pot as well.

Flop range: Ax/77/JJ/flushdraw/99-TT figuring out where they are at/other crap like QT
Turn range after check call: Ax/77/JJ/flushdraw/QT
River range: trips/fh/flush/straight roughly in that order

[ButItWasSuited]

A couple more thoughts:

This guy is only mildly retarded. He is certainly capable of some dumb cliche like "betting to see where he's at on the flop", but he is also giving a little thought to my hand as well.

So here's my question--what does he put ME on to shove this river?

[tarheeljks]

i think his pf range is actually pretty small TT,JJ,AK. I think you get reraised by anything higher and I don't see him calling w/anything lower very often.(maybe 99/AQs, but that seems like a reach and i think AJ is very unlikely). perhaps he's being tricky w/a big pair pf, but i doubt it.

for me the flop bet is an attempt to get some money into the pot. he can't really have you on a draw here, so i think he's just trying to get some value.

as a result i'm laying this down and i don't think it's that hard of a fold, granted i had much, much longer to think about this. we're not beating any Ace that cold called a pfrr. since you said he likes to slowplay, i'm inclined to think he has a fh, but the ai is fishy. i would expect a value bet from a fh here. however, i can't really put him on anything else. a flush seems very unlikely and i don't see him pushing w/something like AT on this board. I'm going to put him on either AK/JJ; not quite sure which, but we don't be either so its moot.

[Debaser]

This is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif like every single time. BASTARD!

[mrw8419]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple more thoughts:

This guy is only mildly retarded. He is certainly capable of some dumb cliche like "betting to see where he's at on the flop", but he is also giving a little thought to my hand as well.

So here's my question--what does he put ME on to shove this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

After a flop call and turn bet he knows you have trip aces, and doesn't seem to care either.

[Unknown Soldier]

he puts you on an A, you're beat he has a fh/flush can't see a hand that he could be bluffing here after the action, unless he's an idiot w/ something like TT. You beat AT i guess, but again he would have to be really bad to have that. And you need a read.

[Jihad]

it doesn't matter fold.

[Jihad]

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't matter fold.

[/ QUOTE ]although i'd be amazed if this wasn't a brag post about a great call.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A couple more thoughts:

This guy is only mildly retarded. He is certainly capable of some dumb cliche like "betting to see where he's at on the flop", but he is also giving a little thought to my hand as well.

So here's my question--what does he put ME on to shove this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

After a flop call and turn bet he knows you have trip aces, and doesn't seem to care either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he checks the turn ace (If hes somewhat skilled, idk i didnt play with him) because he knows he has it beat, and if you have it he can probably get you to bet. River bet I dont really get unless he A) has the flush or B) can beat the flush hoping for whatever reason you have a flush.
I put him on 77, JJ, or 2 clubs, Id have to think he woulda pushed turn with another Ace with those draws, but you never know at 50NL. I would have had to have played with him myself to make any more judgement

[bozzer]

preflop he could be something like AJ+,TT+,poss KQ. I really would put him that wide.

his line looks a lot like AJ or JJ to me.

[ButItWasSuited]

[ QUOTE ]
although i'd be amazed if this wasn't a brag post about a great call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am a 200 NL reg. I have better things to do than make brag posts on uNL. I posted this because I thought villain's line was interesting, and I had a tough time putting him on a hand.

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't matter fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Notice nowhere in my original post did I ask whether I should call or fold. You are missing the point.

[PJo336]

Do we ever get an answer? Im intrigued, you can PM it to me if you dont wanna post it

[Chomp]

Prelop range: 22+, A8+, KQs+

Flop donk range: 77, JJ+, Axs, AJ+, KQs+, air

Turn range: as flop

River range: AA, AK, JJ, AJ, XXs, busted draw/bluff

Final decision: We are beating one hand in that final range, and a bluff is unlikely, so fold.

[ButItWasSuited]

Chomp:

What does he expect to get called with on the river?

[CaptVimes]

Well all of you are deeper stacked + there is the likelyhood that the hand could be multi-way if CO calls so his calling range could be alot higher than what people think. It could include most smallpocket pairs, AK, AQ likely suited and some other suited connectors. With his preflop Agg stats he's re-raising JJ+. How small a sample is your stats?

Flop could be stack a donk, I have a monster draw please re-raise me so I can shove or like you said testing the waters.

River he either has you beat bad or nothing and hopes you can't beat a flush. I think a marginal hand will try to show down cheap.

Close?

[CaptVimes]

Question. You said he's thinking about your hand. How aggro have you been? How light have you been re-raising?

[mrw8419]

Would you have been more likely to call a half pot river bet? I think a push is greater ev than a smaller bet, and with a boat I'd be shoving the river. Villain knows you have trip aces, would he be crazy enough to try to push you off of that hand?

[ButItWasSuited]

[ QUOTE ]
Question. You said he's thinking about your hand. How aggro have you been? How light have you been re-raising?

[/ QUOTE ]
I've been repopping more than the average 50 NL'er which is to say he probably thinks my range is wider than JJ/QQ/KK/AA.
[ QUOTE ]
Villain knows you have trip aces

[/ QUOTE ]
If this is the case, do you really think he thinks my kicker is a 10 or worse? If not, then the odds are good that I have the nuts/2nd nuts.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
Chomp:

What does he expect to get called with on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]


Primarily A's that can't let go.

But looking at it again, I get your point: AK, AQ, AJ are a huge part of our range by the time we get to the end, so villain's move is pretty dumb without AK or AJ himself.

And my initial thought of him having JJ probably doesn't make sense actually - he's 3betting that on turn and c/c river.

Hmmmmmmm.....sheesh, I think he must have AK here and checked turn fearing we have AJ. Our range can only really be AJ+ here.

This s*** hurts my head.

[Dunkman]

a) I don't know what his PF range is because cold-calling a reraise in the SB is retarded and should happen exactly never. I'll assume for sake of dicussion he has a good hand.

b) It could mean I have KK and want to see if you have an A, I hit the flop, I hit the flop really hard and I need bets on all 3 streets to stack you. Calling his flop bet is fine I see very little value in raising, and folding is way too weak/tight.

c) His river pushing range is 99% hands that beat you and 1% bluff. You chop with AQ, lose to AK and AJ, JJ, KK, and a flush. To call you are saying he has QQ, TT, or AT like 30% of the time. There's no way that's the case here.

[yo5ty]

AJ, JJ, or a flush.

The check call makes me think it may have been a flush, particularly around QJs, based on the earlier action.

The more I read over this hand, the more I feel that is a fold situation.

[CaptDrew]

Honestly, based on what I've seen over the last couple of days, I'd say K6o.

[mrw8419]

If he's always going to be calling a river shove, why shouldn't he shove it in himself and try to get a call from other aces.

AK

[C4LL4W4Y]

Well 3 to a flush on a paired board...he knows you can't call without a boat. I think his range is wider than people are assuming, but I can't be sure if you're beating it without knowing the history.

[ButItWasSuited]

Ok, now for the twist: You have JJ.

Call or fold?

[Unknown Soldier]

you shouldnt be in that situation w/ JJ because you should have raised the flop. but JJ is a call, you beat a flush/AQ

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, now for the twist: You have JJ.

Call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]


I call.

And that's one of the reasons I suck so enormously at this stupid bloody game. No self control and little ability to spot the sucker punch in the heat of battle.

[ButItWasSuited]

[ QUOTE ]
you shouldnt be in that situation w/ JJ because you should have raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

[ QUOTE ]
but JJ is a call, you beat a flush/AQ

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think he's leading for 120 bb's without a boat after all the strength I've shown?

[mrw8419]

Umm I have the effective second nuts I doubt he got there with KK, if he has AA then good for him. AJ is very hard for him to have since I have two jacks. I only have to call 38 into about 116 I don't fold boats in big pots getting those kind of odds.

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you shouldnt be in that situation w/ JJ because you should have raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?



[/ QUOTE ]

Why not?

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]

So you think he's leading for 120 bb's without a boat after all the strength I've shown?

[/ QUOTE ]

The strongest play you've made was the 3-bet preflop. Floating the flop and betting the turn when checked to aren't necessarily strong plays. Wouldn't you play KK and QQ the same way?

[PJo336]

JJ at 50NL= call cmon, if he made his boat why didnt he push turn while you were showing all this strength? Villian seems to be getting too much credit in this discussion

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
you shouldnt be in that situation w/ JJ because you should have raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]



Are you serious?



[ QUOTE ]
My only note on him is that he likes to slowplay (like most 50 NL retards...)

[/ QUOTE ]





[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but JJ is a call, you beat a flush/AQ

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think he's leading for 120 bb's without a boat after all the strength I've shown?

[/ QUOTE ]

fh against bad LAG on poss flush board at 50nl (or any limit really)= dont fold.


This thread is dumb

[ButItWasSuited]

[ QUOTE ]
The strongest play you've made was the 3-bet preflop. Floating the flop and betting the turn when checked to aren't necessarily strong plays.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, lets back up then. Why do you think he leads for 120 bb's?
[ QUOTE ]
JJ at 50NL= call cmon, if he made his boat why didnt he push turn while you were showing all this strength?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are on to something here. Perhaps he doesn't have a boat on the turn?

[thac]

I think villain's range preflop is pretty wide (LDO) and he likes to mix it up with you so I would say any pair, any suited ace, any ace with broadway kicker, and probably Kxs down to K9.

He leads into you on the flop (aggression factors would help), so he hit some part of that - we've narrowed his range to 77, JJ, AA (very rarely indeed), A2s+, ATo+, and K9/images/graemlins/club.gif+.

When he checks the turn, he's either gonna raise or call, but I don't think he folds here ever. I think that since he just called, we can rule out AA and A2s+ (to like A9s), and still keep the rest of his range intact, although I would normally raise here with any ace that hasn't boated up yet because you can be re-popping me light with KQ/images/graemlins/club.gif or something that still has outs to hit, but villain likes to slowplay, so blah. So basically, if villain were me, his range here is 77, JJ, A7s, AJs and AJo (he has K9/images/graemlins/club.gif+ as well) but like I said, that's just me.

When he shoves the river like that, he is hoping and praying you hit your flush with your KQ/images/graemlins/club.gif or an ace that didn't boat up. I think I've narrowed his range here down to 77, JJ, AJs, AJo and AK (if he slowplayed it on the turn, like he has the tendency to do). K9/images/graemlins/club.gif+ drops out of his range since the K/images/graemlins/club.gif comes.

I think I put him on 77 here the most, followed by AJ (suited or not), then JJ, then AK (bluffs are somewhere in there, probably after JJ, it'd be nice to know a bit about his bluffing frequency at this point). I also know that 38/24 semi-tards like to bluff scare cards so I think this may be a call, especially if he is the type to slowplay his trip aces that didn't boat up (A2s+ and ATo+).

JJ plays better than AQ here, we're still losing to AJ (although it's far less likely since it'd be case J) and AK, but now we beat 77 and the random clubs that the 38/24 semi-tards call reraises with (QJ/images/graemlins/club.gif).

I think I call with JJ, and it's borderline with AQ.

[Dunkman]

I also agree that you need to be raising the flop with JJ. Why? Because if he doesn't have an A then the hand is over anyway. If he does you need to build a pot so that 1) you can get it AI eventually and 2) a scare card may come on the turn that kills your action. If you don't understand why this flop is a raise with JJ then you probably don't need to be doing one of these indulgent threads where you educate us about how to play.

[We Major]

Looks a lot like AK or KK to me with a flush possible (QJs, JTs), but less likely. The river card obviously helps him and he thinks he has the best hand and he's value shoving.
If he doesn't have the K, it's too risky to shove that much into someone who could have AK even if you have a flush. You'll fold out AQ, AJ and anything that's not a boat (which you are very likely to have). Very few people at this level can make that type of a play with air.

He goes from calling down all the way to shoving the river on what would be a scare card if he held AQ or even AJ. I'm also assuming JJ would have raised the flop or the turn on that board.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ at 50NL= call cmon, if he made his boat why didnt he push turn while you were showing all this strength?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are on to something here. Perhaps he doesn't have a boat on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

this could be correct, and in fact take out AJ slightly of the question...AK explains preflop passively, as well as the flop bet. However, why would he check the turn with TRIPS even with that board. Turn brings up 2 flush draws (i belive im not lookin at it right now) and gives him the "nut" trips without a boat. I rule out AK IMO aswell, it again makes it look like a total donk move falling into a flush, or a 77/JJ combo clever enough to try a trap.
However, you mentioned he slowplayed alot. SO why lead OOP on the flop flopping a set? merry-go-round of contradictions here, and Id prob have to play him, but I dont get the lead with a set. You let him cbet to at least ensure some flop profit. AQ maybe donking the river?

[PJo336]

However, based on the fact its party poker, i vote 10 10

[Dunkman]

I actually think villain has KK, and have the whole time. The PF is kinda weird, but he bets the flop hoping you don't have an A, c/c the turn because the second A makes him think you maybe don't have one, then fills up on the river and shoves.

edit: I guess the turn c/c could be a slowplay with some sort of A or FH...idk...the point is I'm not calling this river bet (with AQ I mean.)

[PJo336]

Define his slow playing? Flop or turn slow play on this hand?

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, now for the twist: You have JJ.

Call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call w/ JJ but I probably would have been all in already on the turn hoping to only be behind to AA or AJ, both of which are very unlikely (2 combos of AJ, and 1 combo of AA).

With JJ, getting the odds you're getting I'd still fold (although it's a close call and you can't be faulted for calling). AK, AA, KK make up the majority of his range...with a flush being possible, but less likely. His range is AA, AK, AJ and KK - you're losing to 11 of these hands. He could also possibly have QJ, JT, 78s, AQ, or an unlikely AT. Assuming you don't hold the Jc then there's about 16 combos...discount and make it 8 combos. You're getting beating 8 and losing to 11 combos or 1.375:1 which isn't quite good enough for a call getting 1.25:1. If you add in air to his range, it makes the call close...but I'd still lean towards a fold.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think villain has KK, and have the whole time. The PF is kinda weird, but he bets the flop hoping you don't have an A, c/c the turn because the second A makes him think you maybe don't have one, then fills up on the river and shoves.

edit: I guess the turn c/c could be a slowplay with some sort of A or FH...idk...the point is I'm not calling this river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I somewhat agree with this point as well. And as the real hand, I dont think Im ever calling, what do we beat?

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok Microstakers, tell me what you think villain has here.

Villain is 38/24 over a smallish sample. He likes to mix it up with me and probably gives me some credit. My only note on him is that he likes to slowplay (like most 50 NL retards...), but I don't think he would automatically slowplay as a default.

Some questions:

What is his range preflop when he cold calls a reraise?
What does his flop donk mean?
What do you put him on when he shoves the river?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $101.44
BB: $56.25
UTG: $19.54
MP: $52.86
CO: $88.05
HERO (BTN): $88.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, SB calls $6.75, 2 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($16.50) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($36.50) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $21</font>, SB calls $21

<font color="black">River:</font> ($78.50) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $63.44</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

Pot Size: $141.94

[/ QUOTE ]


GRUNCHED


What is his range preflop when he cold calls a reraise? [b]PPs, AQs,AKs/AKo/AQo/Sometimes AJs and slowplayed AA/KK.


Donks usually mean
"I want you to raise me, i hit hard"
"ha let me steal this pot from you"
"Uhho FD is out there let me protect"

Since you call and he c/cs it looks like Ax/JJ/AJ and i doubt he has a FD often here.

River id say boat, either AJ/JJ/AK/Flush in order of most likly IMO.

Now ill read the replys and think "Uhhh how did i miss that"

[Dunkman]

You didn't miss anything, this is a turbo muck.

[ButItWasSuited]

Dunkman,

I didn't mean for this post to be patronizing. I discussed this hand with a respected SSNL'er lastnight and we both thought it was interesting as far as putting villain on a hand.

Regarding raising the flop, the pot is 16 on the flop. It's going to be 36 on the turn if I call. A 2/3 bet on turn sets up an $88 pot on the river with $47 behind. Building the pot to get AI isn't really a problem. Scare cards aren't really that big a deal here because my range of hands is pretty narrow in his eyes, I think. I think if he has AK/AJ he's not going to be too worried about the 3flush hitting in a RR pot.

I think raising this flop folds out a lot of hands we can get value from.

Finally, are you from Greensboro? Where did you go to high school?
[ QUOTE ]
I actually think villain has KK, and have the whole time.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree. I think this is one of two hands that make up almost all of his range.

[PJo336]

he missed KK, but yeh muck and never speak of the hand again if you did call

[creamfillin]

I agree that this is a fold, but I would have a hell of a time laying this down if I was actually in the hand. Hand reading is taxing on the mind and body.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a fold, but I would have a hell of a time laying this down if I was actually in the hand. Hand reading is taxing on the mind and body.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why so many people get stuck here.

[doppelganger]

Grunch:

I think he's mixing it up and playing 77 or JJ fast. The standard line is to raise his donkbet on the flop, and I think it's especially important in a case where villain is making a play that's non-standard for him.

I would want to find out right away if he's decided to mix in a bluff or if he's protecting a large hand like a set. Your smooth call keeps the pot smaller but gives you no help in how to play the turn.

[ButItWasSuited]

I folded, FYI.

That's why I'm confident this isn't a BBV post /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[PJo336]

Good fold, and excellent hand, ive actually been discussing it with a friend the last 10 minutes. It is interesting

[godofPOPOV]

i think as a group people have covered all the likely posibilities - what did he hold? - so we can go backward and make sense of his plays

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
i think as a group people have covered all the likely posibilities - what did he hold? - so we can go backward and make sense of his plays

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree. I think results are interesting here.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think as a group people have covered all the likely posibilities - what did he hold? - so we can go backward and make sense of his plays

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree. I think results are interesting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results don't matter, only decisions do - and hero folded (I think correctly, like I said earlier, it seems borderline depending on villain's bluffing frequencies)

[Peter Harris]

Grunching

[ QUOTE ]
What is his range preflop when he cold calls a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

22-JJ/QQ. AQ-AJ (AT?) KQs, KJs. others i dont know.

[ QUOTE ]
What does his flop donk mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reduce range to all club draws. 77, JJ, AJ. when seen in line with his turn play, it looks like he doesn't mind a) check calling [slowplay?] and if has club draw, is willing to play with a top pair on board [mildly retarded imo]. both considerations are possible.


[ QUOTE ]
What do you put him on when he shoves the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

sometimes a flush. most likely usually a boat which is looking for value from a non-boat trips. I believe it's a comfortable fold knowing clubs may do this.

[PJo336]

Now I think there should be an honest poll given here on how many people ACTUALLY HONESTLY would have folded this on the spot. I think one of my leaks is I dont think things out till the hand has passed, and will admit I probably would have called then looked back at it in PT and castrated myself again

[chumofchance]

I haven't read many of the other comments yet (so maybe everyone has already agreed/disagreed with me), but I think KK is very, very likely. At first I thought he had JJ, but villain is supposed to be both bad and aggressive. Aggressive idiots don't flat-call a 3bet preflop with JJ (or with AJ+ - thoughts?) - I think he'd sometimes fold and probably shove. If villain were bad and passive then I think he would flat-call w JJ, and maybe make a smallish 4bet w KK. The goofy donk bet on the flop would then be entirely consistent with JJ, but I think a passive player would NEVER c/c the turn and shove the river. I think a large lead or a c/r shove on the turn would be more likely. If he pots the turn and is passive, I think he's got JJ like always.

But an aggressive idiot could definitely flat-call a 4bet w KK. When he donk bets the flop he's saying "eff! an ace! why didn't I shove preflop!". I think he calls your turn bet partially because he thinks KK looks cool, and partially because you didn't raise on the flop (which is interesting - I'm pretty new to poker, and I probably would have auto-raised the flop. But I guess that's not a very thoughtful play).

The river shove is basically Zeebo's theorem in action. He should be very worried about you having a higher boat, but I'm sure he's not.

[chumofchance]

Okay, newb strategy follow-up question: what lines would hero take with AK/AJ instead of AQ (obviously call the river - I'm wondering about flop and turn play).

Finally, in the heat of battle I would have called his shove after tanking all the way, and beat myself up about it afterwards /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ButItWasSuited]

Chum, he flat called a 3bet. Even though he's aggressive, not many people at 50 NL will 4bet JJ almost 180 big blinds deep.

Also, I think with AK I would take the same line. I don't want to build a huge pot with AK or AQ because I don't think he's going to play a huge pot with Ax. The guy isn't a great player, but he's not retarded, and he's not going to stack off for 2 buyins with A9, I don't think.

[Suaimhnea]

[ QUOTE ]
This is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif like every single time. BASTARD!

[/ QUOTE ]

I like J/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif too, but I'm pretty sure he'd put in a raise on one of the earlier streets with that strong of draw.

[Suaimhnea]

Given his range, what is your plan on a non-club, non-queen river?

[KLJ]

with JJ its an easy call, but obviously less so if you have the J/images/graemlins/club.gif. also a flop raise with JJ is good.

i fold AQ here easily though

[guitarizt]

What is he raising you with on the river that you can beat? Easy fold.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif like every single time. BASTARD!

[/ QUOTE ]

I like J/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif too, but I'm pretty sure he'd put in a raise on one of the earlier streets with that strong of draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

These both look right to me. He bets second pair with a flush draw on the flop, check/calls the turn, then shoves when he hits his flush on the river, hoping you didn't make the big boat (or quads) and can be convinced to fold.

As for the PFRR... Maybe he decided to gamble? Maybe he'd caught a bunch of weak hands running, and didn't want to be pushed off a reasonable starting hand?

[SirFelixCat]

I'm of the mind that he has you beat and that's what the river push is, thinking you have Ax and will pay him off. That said, the way he played this, I expect 77, AK, or the flush, heavily weighted towards AK.

Sure seems like he bets as a semi-bluff or hoping you have AQ or the like, but then c/c's the turn, thinking maybe you have AJ, or if you like the A or is trying to see a cheap river and either way, that's his money card, unless he's scared you have AK...But more likely, has AK himself.

[Dunkman]

I think my main problem with it being AK is him slowing down on the turn. I guess he could have realized he now had a big hand and decided he needed to go into fishy slowplay mode.

[jmc999]

Grunching:
There are a variety of legitimate hands that beat you that might play this way:
77, JJ, AJ, A7, AK, QcTc/Tc9c, other clubs (blocking bet on the flop).
However, AK and QcTc make less sense (clubs probably paid too much to draw, AK probably fires again on the turn). A7 being less likely as he should have folded preflop, but his range is a little loose (i think).

Your best case scenario is that he has AQ or AT, or some weird total bluff on the river. Don't think you beat very much here.

[tarheeljks]

i feel like his range is a little tighter, AQ+, TT+. why do you think the range is this wide?

[SZEppi]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I think there should be an honest poll given here on how many people ACTUALLY HONESTLY would have folded this on the spot. I think one of my leaks is I dont think things out till the hand has passed, and will admit I probably would have called then looked back at it in PT and castrated myself again

[/ QUOTE ]

When someone shoves into me on the river and I hold a hand like AQ here, I usually consider the fact that villain is holding a very strong hand (likely one that beats me), and often I still talk myself into calling (curiosity, small chance of a bluff, all the chips already in, etc). One of my biggest weaknesses for sure. Very dumb.