Suited Ace play-along

[bozzer]

I played this hand this morning and thought it was worth running as a play along post. I'm no Pokey, but I think the correct decision on all the streets is very debatable, so let's have a go.

villain in this hand was Lucky_Luke15, a 25nl regular. Over 300 hands I've got him at 20/11/2.8. He might be 2p2 but probably isn't. He openlimps a bit too much for my taste and is quite nitty postflop but is basically a solid TAG/nit.

He was playing on quite a few of my tables, so he probably sees me as something similar to my stats for the session overall (500 hands):

30/24/4.1

He's probably seen me use position very aggressively. I've 3bet him a couple of times and he's folded. He probably has some respect for my play, but is probably also hoping to stack me when he gets a monster and I overplay a mediocre hand.


As usual, I'll post up a poll where you can select your action and then give your reasoning in the thread. Once there a few replies we'll head on to the next street.


Ok, on to the preflop action.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php)


SB ($48.70)
Hero ($62.60)


Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $1</font>

[bozzer]

[Sweir]

This deep I call because implied odds are high. Also his range is probably very wide. I think its call&gt;fold&gt;3bet.

[Fiksdal]

I probably fold here, because this is a hand I don't like so much to play.

Anyhow I still think a call is fine here given the deep stacks and position. And if he is predictable you might be able to outplay him every now and then.

[CobraGoat]

fold&gt;3bet&gt;call.

I just dont see any value in playing this type of hand out of the blinds for a call.

You are either going to be chasing/semibluffing OOP or wondering if your A is good or not, again, OOP.

Given your history at this table and with villain i really lean towards a fold.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
This deep I call because implied odds are high. Also his range is probably very wide. I think its call&gt;fold&gt;3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely call here, but you have to realize "his range is probably very wide" contradicts "implied odds are high". If we could limit his range to AQ+,TT+ this would be a super-instacall. "Implied odds" does not just mean that opponent has some amount &gt;x in his stack, it means he has &gt;x in his stack, AND will give it to you should the right cards come. That is way more likely to happen when he has a big hand and a narrow range, and our hand is disguised. The nut flush is not a disguised holding.

Here, a call is straightforward because we are ahead of his range, we are good enough to get away from reverse implied odds situations, and we will be in position postflop. No need to incorrectly invoke implied odds.

[Abelardo]

You should probably stay away from him, if I wanted to play this I'd probably 3-bet hoping to flop a monster and if not since we're in the BB and he's SB so we're in position against him so you can take the free card, I think there's a decent chance you can stack him if he doesn't fold to the 3-bet and you hit good.

[mrw8419]

In position with nearly 200bb this is a call, but in order for it to be +ev you need to win this hand with nothing sometimes. If he's nitty he's not going to two barrel you very much without a strong ace so there is not as much worry for you to fold a pair of aces to two strong barrels. He's waiting to trap you so this will means villain may be more likely to stack off lightly.

[bozzer]

A mixture of responses so far.

Encouraging us to play the hand are the following factors:

- We are in position
- Opponent is fairly predictable and well known
- We have a good implied odds hand
- We might be ahead of his range

additionally, several of the factors are enhance by the fact that we are deep stacked.

A fold is fine, but I couldn't resist playing this. I think most players will make a little bit of money playing this. But I agree with the person who said that you need to be able to win with nothing sometimes.

The question of whether to just call or to 3 bet is interesting. 3 betting the SB from the BB is absolutely killer. You can catch the SB with his pants down so often, and obviously if you don't pick it up immediately you have position in HU pot.

I think the correct answer depends a lot on his range. I'd say the main argument against 3 betting here is that it would turn our hand into a bluff. It's nice we have the flush outs, but I don't think that's enough to justify a raise vs his range. I think that he probably is raising reasonably tightly because of his general nittyness and his respect for my aggression. Additionally, I had 3 bet him a couple of times recently, reducing my FE, so I chose to take a flop.

Antimone made an excellent point about the implied odds situation varying with his range. A tight range does improve our implied odds, but lowers our all in equity. A loose range improves our all in equity but lowers our implied odds. I'd say we're mainly playing for implied odds here. If an ace comes we might pick off a cbet but that's about it.

On to the flop.


Flop: ($2) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.75</font>

[mrw8419]

I call on this flop with a large intention of betting or raising turn. I don't like raising flop because villain will not slow play a big hand oop with this much money behind and I don't want to have to lay down my nut draw. Also while our draw is pretty it is not a very powerful draw as it is very obvious, and the ace is likely not to help. Reasons raising is good villain will lay down mid pairs, weak kings, and queens, but this is why I like raising or betting turn as it allows us to see one cheap card while still getting villain to lay down his medium strength hands. Another advantage to raising is that he could also continue with an inferior draw in an even bigger pot.

I'm much happier laying down my draw on the turn to a 3 bet or c/r than being forced to fold on the flop. So I'm a fan of just calling with the intention of raising or betting turn.

[members_only]

i reckon call. from your description there is too much chance of him having a hand for raising to be a good idea. also as it's blind vs. blind he won't necessarily put you on a draw (you could have a queen etc.)

[members_only]

also raise to $7 is a bit vicious from bozzer

presumably you're playing for fold equity a bit so why not give yourself better odds?

[Lego05]

I picked call and were I going to raise it would be to 5 max. 7's a bit much don't you think? The all-in option is just ridiculous.

[C4LL4W4Y]

I like raising. A call only gives us just over 2 to 1, and I'm not sure implied odds are high enough to justify it. If we raise to $7 and he shoves, it's obviously a fold as we can assume we're drawing against a made hand (I'd be very reluctant to consider an A as one of our outs).

I'm not sure though. I'd like to hear some other responses.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
I call on this flop with a large intention of betting or raising turn. I don't like raising flop because villain will not slow play a big hand oop with this much money behind and I don't want to have to lay down my nut draw. Also while our draw is pretty it is not a very powerful draw as it is very obvious, and the ace is likely not to help. Reasons raising is good villain will lay down mid pairs, weak kings, and queens, but this is why I like raising or betting turn as it allows us to see one cheap card while still getting villain to lay down his medium strength hands. Another advantage to raising is that he could also continue with an inferior draw in an even bigger pot.

I'm much happier laying down my draw on the turn to a 3 bet or c/r than being forced to fold on the flop. So I'm a fan of just calling with the intention of raising or betting turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[bozzer]

Flop: ($2) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.1</font>, SB calls $5.35.

A split decision on the voting for raising or calling. Interestingly no-one likes a fold, but we did call to see a flop like this one. Obviously pushing would be wrong here.

I think mrw8419 gave some excellent reasons for the flat call. We don't really have the implied odds to quite justify the call IMO, but adding floating into the equation certainly helps.

I chose to raise as a semibluff:

- to pick off c-bets
- make life very difficult for dodgy kings now and on later streets
- potentially get a free turn card
etc. etc.

it's unclear whether this move increases or decreases our implied outs, since it begins to tie him to the pot if he calls.

on an immediate odds perspective a raise to $7.1 gives us:

7.1/10.85 = 65%

if spades are our only outs we have ~20% equity by the turn.
if we think an ace will put us ahead we have ~25% equity by the turn.

if the raise earns us a free card then we'll have 40% and 50% equity by the river obviously.

from an immediate odds perspective we need fold equity of something like 15-45% to justify a raise without using implied odds. I guess it's unlikely our FE is in the extremes of that range, but if he's cbetting this flop fairly frequently (which I think he probably is), then maybe we can pencil in a 30% chance of taking it down now?

Essentially I think it's really difficult to give a definite answer using a pot odds analysis, and obviously implied odds remain as elusive as ever.

Regarding the betsizing, I think this is a pot sized raise, which is standard for me. Offering better than 2:1 odds probably isn't a great idea.

A couple of reasons for smooth calling that weren't mentioned:

- according to Sklansky, we should semibluff less with a draw to the nuts because our implied odds are better and we don't want to get raised off it
- we're unusually deep: our implied odds are somewhat higher, but it may also mean it is harder to semibluff - if he adopts a passive line are we going to keep firing?

Anyway, I'm still not sure on the best option here, but after reading the comments I'm leaning towards the floating option.

Thanks for the comments so far.

Sorry about the delay in getting to the turn. Here it is at last:

Turn: ($16.20) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>

[fees]

I called, raised, raised all in.. seems fine

[members_only]

i think you've got to fold here. am i mad?

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
I called, raised, raised all in.. seems fine

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jaqrabbit]

I'm inclined to raise all in on this turn. You've got top pair now, and you still have the flush draw in case he's on two pair. Even if he does have two pair, your play so far also looks like it might have been AA, so he could put you on the set, and fold it here.

I'd be a little concerned he's playing Kx/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and he's now on his own flush draw, but that's really all I'd be worried about. And really, the push makes it very expensive for him to draw, if he is on /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs. So yeah, push this. He might fold it right here, leaving you with ~$23 of his money, and if he calls you've got a decent hand and a strong draw.

[mrw8419]

Raising all in on this turn is suicide. You just raised a tight player he called out of position deep stacked and fired a pot sized bet into you. Villain doesn't even care that an ace just peeled off the deck. He's still firing full pot, there is no way you have any decent fold equity versus him. Its not like he's floating OOP just to take the pot away on the turn, he's flat out telling you he loves his hand.

Villain will never believe you have a made hand other than J10 or bottom set, you'd reraise AK, AQ, QQ, KK, AA preflop. You wouldn't shove the turn with KQ so that makes your range consistent with bottom set, the straight, and draws.

[monkeymaps]

Dont like shoving very much we dont have alot of FE here and we only have flush outs IMO a three is prob not an out here. Calling is kind of gross too villian seems to love his hand but I dont know if we are getting big enough implied odds to chase, I fold.

[Dunkman]

I think I'd have to fold the turn. For the record I was call PF then raise the flop, although I would have done something in the 5-6 range, 7 seems excessive. That turn bet means business, and you have at most 9 outs. I don't think there's any way he's doing that without AQ or better.

[Triggerle]

We have a lot of clean spade outs as well as 2 or 3 more outs to pair the board if he has two-pair. These need to be discounted a bit for a possible set, though. If he indeed has two-pair, outs that pair our kicker are also good.

FE is not great but I'm sure there is some.

I push.

Edit: There is also a chance that we are actually ahead, which I would put at 5-15%.

[bozzer]

Turn: ($16.20) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15.

Yup. I kind of went into a weak-tight shell and just called. I couldn't work out whether he was in love with his hand (likely) or was really scared by the A but didn't want to show weakness to an obvious scarecard.

A rule of thumb that gets quoted a lot is only call if you can't find a reason to fold or raise. My problem was here I could find reasons to do both and to call.

The big question on whether to continue is assessing our implied odds if we hit. After villain bets he's got $25 left behind. A smooth call gives a river pot size of $46. So I think if I'm behind and hit a spade I'll get ~$20 extra from him on average (adjusting for possibility of him hitting a boat).

So the implied odds offered are 15/15+15+15+20 = 23%

I can see a fold, but I think continuing is probably better, given that there is a chance we are ahead. I'd put this more at 15-20% I'm just not sure how nitty this player would be in this situation. Triggle, was your number for an unknown, or influenced by my background info.

Pushing could well be the best play. Let's punch some numbers.

Let's say we've got a 25% chance to win the hand if called, and a FE of 15% (I can't see much we fold out that we beat).

EV(called)= .25($100) - .75($50) = -$12.5

EV(folds) = +$30

0.85(-$12.5) + 0.15($30) = -$6

If I've got it right we need ~30% FE to break even. Easy push fellas?

Anyway, at the time I decided to call and see if I could hit my spade and stack him, or hope he gives up. Can calling really be the best play? I didn't think it was but I've convinced myself.


River: ($46.20) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>

[Roger Mainfield]

4-1 is so nice, but I really can't see you being ahead ever, unless he has something like 78s and was semibluffing the whole way or he is a crazy bad donk (you said he wasn't).

[Triggerle]

Since I would have pushed turn after flat calling flop I'm now pretty much out of sync with how you played the hand. I think FE is almost zero now. So I would fold barring any reads that tell me differently.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I would have pushed turn after flat calling flop I'm now pretty much out of sync with how you played the hand. I think FE is almost zero now. So I would fold barring any reads that tell me differently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto. If he was on a flush draw, he made it, and you missed yours. The only likely hands you beat now are KJo and a complete bluff (I don't think Qxo is likely. I don't see these bets with third pair after the turn in the face of two flush draws.) Plus, it really looks like he's trying to sell his hand here to induce a call. Time to fold, for me.