Once more: The 5/10 rule

[hra146]

Im not exactly clear on the sentence "when between 5 and 10 percent use your judgement".

What things do you consider?

-position
-pf raiser
-your cards

okay.. got that.

-Position is always good. Even better with speculative hands. Obvious.

-the raiser. Is he tight? Is he loose? Whats his range. Obvious

- your cards. The higher your pair the better since your risk of flopping an underset lessens. Right?


Now, with the raiser for example. When Im UTG raising with 22 and I get reraised. Say I raise 2 villain makes it 6.50$ to go. Its 4.50$ to me and remaining effective stacks are 45$.

Its exactly 10% now, can I call?
What about if I had JJ?
What if the raiser is VERY VERY loose, or VERY VERY tight?

I feel that tight raisers are better because the chance is good that he has a premium pair that he wont let go postflop. Is that correct?

Generally, question for you:

WHAT do you consider when its between 5 and 10%, and HOW do you value these factors?

Is position most important? Your cards? Villain?

Under what conditions would you definitely call a 10% and under what conditions fold if its only 5%?


gimme a hint,


greets

[Bramsterdam]

1. Villain is very important. You'll stack a 3% pf raiser when you hit your sit, while a 25% pf raiser will probably not pay you off. This is the most important consideration in my opinion.

2. Being in position doesn't give your opponent the opportunity to exercise pot control by checking turn behind. You therefore take a passive line, to let your opponent hang himself.

3. Set over set rarely ever happans and I don't really value 99 to be different then 22 when I decide to play for set value.

[prodonkey]

If I'm heads up, out of position against a rerasier, I just normally muck the small pairs, unless you are against someone you are almost 100% sure you stack if you hit a set. If the villain can fold a hand I really don't see any point in putting 10% of your stack in and then getting his c-bet the 1 time you do hit your set.

[Triggerle]

You need to average $45 in your example. This makes this a clear fold as set-over-set will happen some precent of the time (not to speak of the possibility of villian folding post-flop once in a while).

[MrMysterious]

in some respects 22 is > jj bcs if the flop is 9 high, you may take your weak overpair too far, 22 is still an easy fold.

still, i rarely play small pocket pairs in reraised pot unless there is some dead money in there somewhere. in a reraised pot your better off folding.

also, prodonkey has a good post on this.

[hra146]

thanks for the replies, but im not quite there yet.

Obviously for a 10% you need a very very good reason (or metagame) , but now what about

9
8
7
6 ?

where do you cut it?

and why?

[Grunch]

When you are using your judgement here, what you are judging is your implied odds. It's really just as simple, and as devilishly complex as that.

The point is this. If you play a pair before the flop, you are a 7.5:1 dog to flop a set. If you flop that set, you are (over the long run) a 3:1 favorite to win the hand. 7.5:1 comes out to 8.5/1 = 11.8% and 3:1 comes to 3/4=75%, so when you play a PP preflop, you are going to win with a set about 11.8*75 = 8.85% of the time.

What that means is that in order for playing a PP preflop for set value, you need to win 1/0.0885 = 11 times your preflop investment in order to break even. This is generally rounded to 10.

So that's the judment you're making. If you play this PP preflop, taking in to consideration the millions of things that effect implied odds -- the opponent's postflop tendancies, effective stacks, etc -- will you get 10x your initial investment when you hit the set?

These days I don't use the rule of 5/10 much. I've skewed it way up to be more like the rule of 3/7. I think that's a lot closer to reality than 5/10.

[TheRenaissance]

Whenever you want to play a small pocket for set value you need to get back 11.7 times your preflop investment to break even. No more, no less.
<font color="red">11.7</font>
<font color="blue">11.7</font>
<font color="green">11.7</font>
<font color="black">11.7</font>

End of story.