is stealing the blinds +ev in $10nl?

[jerryf1914]

it just doesn't seem to work for me like it does in the $50nl+ videos i've seen. i seem to get called so often its very -ev. are there some other ways to keep your head above water while you're not getting cards?

[JoseRijo]

I have a small sample size, but it is definitely +EV for me. Even if you get called, you're in position as a pre-flop raiser.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
it just doesn't seem to work for me like it does in the $50nl+ videos i've seen. i seem to get called so often its very -ev. are there some other ways to keep your head above water while you're not getting cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

The great part about open-raising on the button against the blinds is that a lot of the time if you don't get the blinds right away, you'll take the pot down on the flop with a c-bet. Stealing the blinds is +EV at any level.

That said, if you are getting called often, tighten up your range. It is easier to steal from tight opponents than loose opponents. This is especially necessary if you are card dead. Just wait it out, we all go through spats where we've seen 62o 5 times in the last 10 hands.

[jerryf1914]

i think i need to make a video or something. i always get called pre flop and then my cbets always get called. and this is over 13k+ hands i got to be doing someything wrong

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i need to make a video or something. i always get called pre flop and then my cbets always get called. and this is over 13k+ hands i got to be doing someything wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

[bozzer]

he he yes.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]


Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this example am i playing too weak?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($8.80)
Button ($6.05)
SB ($11.60)
BB ($2.65)
UTG ($5.65)
Hero ($6.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.3</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.35

[dirtylobster]

[ QUOTE ]
in this example am i playing too weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't raise 65s from MP at NL10. Maybe sometimes from the button when folded to. And you didn't connect on the flop in any way so it should be an easy fold.

[dirtylobster]

And reload to $10, always keep a full stack.

[dirtylobster]

And..... Blind stealing is +EV even at NL2.

[Leviathan101]

that hand doesn't demonstrate anything about stealing the blinds. Standard though.

Post a hand where you attempted to steal.

[Mr_Pathetic]

This is an obvious re-raise. J/K. I steal blinds at NL 2 on stars and here what's happened to me. I go in pokertracker and filter by chance to steal and raised and I see a profit of 0.89 BB/Hand. This is over 18,000 hands. I only attempt the steal about 24% of the time however.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this example am i playing too weak?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($8.80)
Button ($6.05)
SB ($11.60)
BB ($2.65)
UTG ($5.65)
Hero ($6.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.3</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.35

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised this flop strongly and expected to win either right waway or on the turn when I fired again. When I say strongly I mean making it $2.00 to go.

Actually given your stack you cant 2nd barrel on the turn. You should have a full stack.

[CaseS87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this example am i playing too weak?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($8.80)
Button ($6.05)
SB ($11.60)
BB ($2.65)
UTG ($5.65)
Hero ($6.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.3</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.35

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised this flop strongly and expected to win either right waway or on the turn when I fired again. When I say strongly I mean making it $2.00 to go.

Actually given your stack you cant 2nd barrel on the turn. You should have a full stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like raising this flop with air. Villain is calling with hands as weak as ace high.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an obvious re-raise. J/K. I steal blinds at NL 2 on stars and here what's happened to me. I go in pokertracker and filter by chance to steal and raised and I see a profit of 0.89 BB/Hand. This is over 18,000 hands. I only attempt the steal about 24% of the time however.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW when i filter by attempts to steal i see i attempted 12% of the time (830 hands) and i am down $70.............

so it's +ev huh????

[guitarizt]

[ QUOTE ]
And..... Blind stealing is +EV even at NL2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do it all the time.

[Fiksdal]

<font color="blue">FINAL ANSWER TO OP's QUESTION:</font>

It depends on your position and your table. Only steal from CO and BTN. Only steal if the villains left to act behind you have low VPIP/folded to flop bet numbers.

[lautzutao]

I'd rather steal their stacks than the blinds. What hands are you stealing with?

[CPHoya]

Couple of thoughts:

1) Stealing the blinds is +EV anywhere.

2) Do you ever raise in any other position? In other words, does it look blatantly obvious that you're stealing the blinds because raising is something you don't otherwise do? If so, you need to work on this.

3) If you honestly feel like you're losing every time you try to steal, you can make up some of it by making timely 3-bets light when you're SB or BB after someone attempts a steal. You can do this with much less frequency and probably break even with your failed steals. Plus the raises give you a little credibility.

4) Don't try to steal with a bad hand against some dude with like 55/2/0 stats, because you're getting called. So open up your range some and get him to play back at you out of position! Make the c-bets, like Grunch said, and see what happens from there.

5) Reload your stack.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather steal their stacks than the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a connection. If you raise it up enough, and start playing a 22/17 game, villains get angry with you. Then they think you are full of [censored] when you pot all streets, and they pay you off with all kinds of stuff.

Some people claim image is unimportant at uNL. I really disagree. In the session this hand was taken from, I had been very loose from CO/BTN, taking down the blinds or cbetting the flop. I know that SB noticed this, because he started calling me preflop. In some of those hands I took the pot on the flop, sometimes he played back at me and got the pot. Certainly those fights would not have occurred if I had been nitting it up and playing a standard late position range. Because villain wasn't that stupid.

It didn't take long before this hand took place:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.05/$0.10 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $16.15
BB: $27.05
UTG: $17.45
CO: $4.20
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $9.95</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, SB calls $0.35, BB folds
Uncalled bet of $0 returned to Hero

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.90) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.85</font>, SB calls $0.85

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($2.60) 9http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, SB calls $2

<font color="black">River:</font> ($6.60) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $6.70</font>, SB calls $6.70

Pot Size: $20 ($1 Rake)

SB had 8http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Thttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (two pair, Tens and Nines) and LOST (-$9.95)
Hero had J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (a straight, Queen high) and WON (+$9.05)

I am confident that villain would not have put his stack in here if it wasn't for my blind stealing image. He knows I am bluffing preflop, and on the flop, so the fish inside him convinces main control that I will be bluffing for my entire stack for the rest of the hand also. Players loose control when playing with loose aggressive people. It induces them to make irrational decisions.

Stealing the blinds against this guy might, in a vacuum, have been slightly +EV, neutral EV or even a little -EV. However, when we see what it caused villain to do, it was certainly +EV seen as a whole.

And no, getting payed off here by that hand is not standard, even at 10NL. Against even slightly fishy opponents, I just get the pot when I bet the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
What hands are you stealing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like everything in poker, this depends on my opponents. If the blinds have VPIP's &lt; 20 or high folded to flop bet numbers, my BTN opening range is any two cards.

Obviously if my opponents are pure retards, I don't steal blinds at all. It will be -EV, and there is no need to try and put them off balance, because they already are. When I have a huge hand I am going to get their stacks no matter what their impression of me is.

So when making the decision whether or not to be stealing the blinds at a table, look at the stats of the two villains sitting to your left. If they are fish, great, sit back and wait for hands. If they are tight/passive, open up! You have a job to do!

[lautzutao]

The SB in your hand's obviously an idiot(a good thing of course/images/graemlins/grin.gif ) calling an AI w/ middle pair, so why would you want to steal from him? Think of how many hands he folded that you could have possibly played against him after the flop before this particular hand came up.

I find it very rare in games at the micro limits to have two players to my left that are so tight that I'd want to raise w/ hands like J8s and not get to see a flop.

If anything I'd raise w/ crap that's almost unplayable postflop.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]

If anything I'd raise w/ crap that's almost unplayable postflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Think of how many hands he folded that you could have possibly played against him after the flop


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting limping the speculative hands on the button?

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you suggesting limping the speculative hands on the button?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why potentially drive out terrible blind players for 1/100th of their stack when you can limp and potentially take all of it? *shrugs*

Just something to think about.

[guitarizt]

Find your own style. I like to play a solid game with 4+ people at the table, pretty much giving up when my cbets are called and not try anything too tricky. 3 handed or hu I do whatever I feel like and I get more aggressive. I found if I try to do this when the table's more than 3 handed I get myself into trouble a lot and it leads to a high variance style that I don't like.

[crushednuts]

look at what stealing alot accomplished in the J8 hand. He got the SB to start calling OOP w/ marginal hands. I don't think there is a better way to get someones stack than playing raised pots in position with better hands than them consistently. Calling never stops me from stealing. The only thing that slows me down is if I get 3bet light.

[lexxor]

Im on 0.34 BB/Hand on nl10 (filtered to Attempt to Steal &amp; Raised (409 hands))

[bozzer]

at 10nl I ran at 0.89 BB/hand when I had a chance to steal and raised (400 hands). obviously i ran good, but blind stealing is sooooooooo profitable. in the hand OP quoted above I would raise the donk bet since it's likely it's a blocker for a FD. That is definately profitable at 10nl. You can still make money stealing blinds if you don't do that sort of thing though.

according to PT I attempted to steal the blinds ~40% of the time.

[ciro bonano]

[ QUOTE ]
at 10nl I ran at 0.89 BB/hand when I had a chance to steal and raised (400 hands). blind stealing is sooooooooo profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]If I understand correctly what lautzutao is saying, you don't know if it's profitable. If the blinds fold a lot to your raises but do stack off with middle pair it might be even more +EV than your 0.9BB/hand to limp and get a shot at their stack every hand (which of course is more difficult as the pot is smaller, but we assume they are donkeys anyway). I don't think it is, in general, but if I can flop top pair and stack somebody with it I might need to limp some more.

[ben wb]

I think blind stealing is hugely +ev at $10nl, my attempt to steal blinds at nl10 is about 36% and profit is 0.54BB/hand.

It's not just about stealing the blinds, it's about playing raised pots in position against players you can outplay post flop, that's one reason raising is much better than limping on the button because it's far easier to stack someone in a raised pot and the fish do not adapt well tosomeone raising a lot in late position, Fiksdal is right, villain's get angry that they can't see cheap flops and start playing even worse and as the pots are bigger their mistakes are bigger. I've had plenty of players accuse me of raising every hand so they do notice but they don't know what to do about it and start calling down with weak hands in big pots and throw their money away.

Here's a hand where I was called on the river with ace high and I know this was because villain had seen me raise about half of the last 20 hands (it was 3 handed) and decided he wasn't going to fold this time. Probably could have raised more on the river.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $22.05
BB: $9.80
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $14.15</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Th.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7s.png (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.85) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/3c.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/2d.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7c.png (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.60</font>, BB calls $0.60

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($2.05) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Ks.png (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($2.05) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7h.png (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, BB calls $2

Pot Size: $8.05 ($0.35 Rake)

BB had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qh.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/As.png and LOST (-$4)
Hero had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Th.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7s.png (three of a kind, Sevens) and WON (+$3.70)

After that he tilted away most of the rest of his stack.

I'm sure I get called a lot more with my monster hands now than when I didn't steal the blinds very often.