50NL; JJ 3bets pre - Holy overbet Batman

[Lego05]

Villian is 22.58/14.52/1.42 over 62 hands

Bet the flop?
Now call? fold? (I'm gettin 1.375 to 1)
What the hell is he doing this with?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($61.55)
Hero ($52)
BB ($60.35)
UTG ($72.45)
MP ($145.10)
CO ($44.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($16.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $53.55 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[Quester]

Bleh, that's a nasty bet. I'm thinking this is a hand like ATd. I doubt he does this with a set.

This is probably one of those situations where I embrace variance, assume I'm slightly better than a coinflip, and call it anyway.

Edit: I'm not sure why you checked the flop here.

[Skleice]

I would've led the flop. You wouldn't be in such a tough spot. My guess is he has the diamonds. If he had a set would he bet so much after you checked? It's one thing to come over the top if you bet...he could put you on a high pair that you can't get away from. But, since you checked he's prob putting you on some high cards. I call...though I'm worried I'm crushed (but I doubt it)

[Peter Harris]

Quester, AT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a favourite over JJ:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.475% 47.47% 00.00% 470 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 52.525% 52.53% 00.00% 520 0.00 { AdTd }


However, I think that should put his range at QQ-TT, AK-AT:diamonds:, 33, 44.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.134% 15.75% 02.39% 3118 472.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 81.866% 79.48% 02.39% 15737 472.50 { QQ-TT, 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd }

This is assuming villain doesn't flat call AA/KK, fears flush draw boards with sets, will raise small pairs early and will not push 99-55 on a Txx flush draw board thinking you're on AK.

Change the parlay a bit and assume villain will push any pair QQ-22 including sets thinking you're on whiffed overs, but also adding in AK-AT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.602% 61.75% 00.85% 34234 472.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 37.398% 36.55% 00.85% 20261 472.50 { QQ-22, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd }

and it's a call.

So it depends entirely on villain - could be 47-52, could be a 4-1 dog, could be a 3-2 favourite.

FWIW i probably fold there, but it's close. And i'm new.


EDIT: i forgot, yeah as the above poster said, wtf with no flop bet.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Quester, AT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a favourite over JJ:


[/ QUOTE ]

I know, but:
a) it's close
b) I didn't say/don't think his range is exactly ATd, just that I think ATd is played this way by this type of opponent.

[Spanky1974]

Bet the flop. Checking here looks weak, and he could possibly be doing this with AK-AT, any two diamonds and smaller pairs. I doubt he has AA or KK. I think it's a close call.

[urubu111]

OMG!!! Bet flop please!! As played INSTA CALL!!!!!

[Chomp]

Nice post Peter.

[fatman20]

You 3-bet pre-flop and didn't c-bet. My guess is that villian has you on AK or AQ and senses weakness. Def. need to bet that flop.

Let's say hero leads flop for $12 and villian pushes this flop. What do we do here?

[Pirelli]

You induced a bluff by checking the flop. I call so fast opponent has 5% misclick equity.

[thejackel69]

im tempted by the fold here, however the check does induce a bluff leaving a massive range i "think" youve got pot odds to call against ATd and i doubt he plays trips this fast and doubt he calls 3-bet pre-flop with anything that can make two pair. Im swaying towards a call. but i always like to call all-ins on the flop because they always seem a little strange. Flip your favourite coin!