turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?

[nukewell]

villian is 40/9/1 over bout 60 hands

my stats are 27/16/3


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

BB ($22.20)
UTG ($10.10)
MP ($34.50)
CO ($13.05)
Hero ($49.35)
SB ($40.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75</font>, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold[/i]</font>.

Flop: ($1.75) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif 2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($4.75) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75</font>, SB calls $4.75.

River: ($14.25) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
SB bets $8</font>, <font color="red"> </font>



what is the move on the river, call, push???

[jezmond]

I would call, seems like he might be crazy enough to call J8

[poon]

you lose to Jc8c, T9, Q9, 55. you win agiant annother nine, QJ, QT, I think QQ,TT raises pf here or flop or turn. I think theres lots of hands he could have here that you beat. If you raise to like 24 I think you'll get a call enough of the time out of QJ.

[nukewell]

thats what im getting at

its a call at the least, but is it profitable in the long run to raise this bet. i know i will lose sometimes, but will the times i raise, get called and take it down more than make up for this??

is it just a call every time??


villian is too passive to push j8 on a paired board imo

[Tito]

There is really no way to calculate how many times you will get called because it is player dependant. It seems you are being to results oriented with your decisions. I don't feel like a big raise on the river is going to do anything for your winrate but bring it down. Most times villain isn't going to call a push unless he has a hand that beats you. If you're raising on the river then raise for value.

[nukewell]

i guess im asking is it spew to raise here without the nuts or is it better just call and show it down

[Fiksdal]

This is an interesting question, and this is really close.

Personally I would probably just call, but I'm a scared nit. I am starting to think that raisin here is probably +EV.

[mrw8419]

I would just call with this board villian is either block betting and won't call a raise, or he sucks and is poorly value betting a big hand. With his low AF I'm leaning towards him having a big hand. The only hands I can see him maybe calling a river raise is Q10cc, AQcc, KQcc, QJcc.