KK in 50NL, proper odds to push??

[sj2010]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($15)
CO ($105.30)
Button ($32.25)
Hero ($58.65)
BB ($74.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.5</font>, MP folds, Button folds, Hero calls $4.50.

Flop: ($15.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $11</font> Hero ????

villain seems fairly solid from what i had seen so far. i had been raising good run of cards first 2-3 orbits and had pushed allin on the turn 6 hands ago and won without showing, so i look pretty laggy, if hes been paying attention. however, a 3bet into 3 people makes me put him on JJ-AA or AK. flop hit every single one of those hands, so i assume im behind at the flop. ive got 10 outs if he has Jacks or Queens, 0 if hes got AK, and 6 if hes got Aces. i doubt that pushing gives me much fold equity. do i go allin, or fold?

[wdead]

make it like 18 to go pre

[kayfish77]

fold because you beat absolutely nothing.

[fuze]

Calling his reraise is your mistake imo. Like wdead said, 3bet him preflop, 18 sounds pretty good.

This will narrow down your read on his hand, then you can evaluate the flop.

As played, fold.

[Gelford]

Fourbet pre ... push now

[Pirelli]

I agree with the range you've assigned him. It sucks but you have to fold it, there's nothing you beat. If you push here you're getting your stack in with bad equity. 4-bet PF next time and try to get it AIPF.

[poon]

If we make it 18 to go preflop do we still check fold turn?


1,189,311 games 20.906 secs 56,888 games/sec

Board: Ts Jd Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.908% 72.27% 04.64% 859518 55231.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.092% 18.45% 04.64% 219422 55231.50 { KcKh }


pot will be about 40 and we'll have 40 left in stack. If we get it all in pot will be about 117. Winning 18% of the time gives us an equity of about 21$ (117*.18). three more dollars then the 18$ raise we made. I still lean towards folding but did i do the math right and if we call we make 3$ here? Or is the correct answer we lose 58.65-21=37.65$ every time here?

[fatman20]

I think if we 4 bet this pre-flop we get in all in or we will take it down. If we 4 bet and BB smooth calls would anyone push this flop because of how much is already invested?

[.xxxx.]

[ QUOTE ]
Fourbet pre ... push now

[/ QUOTE ]

so pushing 100BB's into a 31BB pot makes up for not 4betting pre?

As shown here, you're wb:
Hand 0: 76.908% 72.27% 04.64% 859518 55231.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.092% 18.45% 04.64% 219422 55231.50 { KcKh }

[HBomb]

Have we ruled out the possibility of AQ maybe here? What about 99 possibly? KQs? We're ahead of all those by far.

[Quester]

Jamming in these situations is one of my biggest leaks. I need to learn to let these go more often, and I'd recommend you do too.

[Rafpig]

When you do these calculations with poker stove you discount completely the possibilty of a bluff? I think Harrington wrote that you should always put at least a 10% chance of a bluff. In this case, villain could be attentive and thought you were LAG, so decided to make a play on you and now is just making a cbet. I don´t know if this changes anything beetween a push or a fold, but I think it is a possiblity to be counted.

[HBomb]

Harrington probably sucks at cash games too.

[Rafpig]

Ok, you might be right, but that doesn´t answer the question. Do you completely rule out a bluff? BTW a hand like 99, one that you are not sure can be ruled out, might be considered a bluff on this spot (at least a semi-bluff).

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you might be right, but that doesn´t answer the question. Do you completely rule out a bluff? BTW a hand like 99, one that you are not sure can be ruled out, might be considered a bluff on this spot (at least a semi-bluff).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would be a mistake to completely rule out a bluff here. But, we need to adjust the percentage based on the opponent and situation.

[.xxxx.]

Why not call and reevaluate the turn?
The bet is 22BB's into a 31BB pot, giving you 22 to call 53 ~~ 1 to 2.5...given the chance that villain holds AQ/99 might make this a call, but for the most part you're up against TT/JJ/QQ/AK

[sj2010]

-if i 4 bet and opponent goes all in, is this instacall, or should i consider folding? also, if im position preflop, should i still 4 bet?

-.xxxx., i considered doing this, but i think the biggest problem with calling is that im OOP. if i call, i still have to act first on the turn, and the only real safe card is an A. after calling i think id be commited to the pot anyways, at least if i improved at all, so wouldnt pushing and hoping to gain any fold equity be better than calling?

-i think 99 and AQ are small possibilities, but to push 40 to win about 37 means i need better than a 50% chance to win the pot to make it EV (my math might be way off). even considering the bluff possibilities, i think i could be getting my money in in a much better place. the way i played it, im only losing 7 bucks if i fold.

[sj2010]

one other thing, how do you calculate redraw outs for your opponent in a situation like this? say i hit an ace for the nut straight and he has JJ and board pairs on the river for a full house. any idea how to adjust probabilities in ones head accordingly?

[ukdentisto32]

4-bet preflop, if he goes all-in its an instant call, u need to be much deeper to fold KK in this scenario

[fees]

you don't have to reraise prf, it is ok if you are good at playing after the flop. If you aren't very confident you are better than him then 4bet. If he's a tag fold. If he's a retard raise all in. What you beat here is thin, very thin.

[Rafpig]

[ QUOTE ]
-i think 99 and AQ are small possibilities, but to push 40 to win about 37 means i need better than a 50% chance to win the pot to make it EV (my math might be way off). even considering the bluff possibilities, i think i could be getting my money in in a much better place. the way i played it, im only losing 7 bucks if i fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just tried to make the math here, but made a mistake cause I thought you were playing againt the button. Will have to do it again /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Rafpig]

Ok, finally did it. If you plan to go all in you are getting odds of about 1.5 to 1, so you need more or less 40% winning chances, much less than what you though.

[djkelly69]

Anyone else like a donk bet on this flop? After 3-betting preflop, he is c-betting almost every time. If we lead into him i think we are forcing him to define his hand more.

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
Have we ruled out the possibility of AQ maybe here? What about 99 possibly? KQs? We're ahead of all those by far.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just c-bet here after 3-bet preflop. He could have 77-99.

Lets just push. I don't think his range is much ahead.

[corsakh]

A solid villain call/reraising preflop on the button? Nooo /images/graemlins/smile.gif He either has AA or attempts to resteal with some very mediocre hand. AF and preflop raise is a big tell here. Perhaps I fold this pre to anyone with both maniac and extremely nitty stats, since a nit does not resteal and a maniac does not call preflop on the button. Anyone average push preflop.

Those who advise to 4bet OOP, whats exactly your plan for the flop? I'm really curious to know /images/graemlins/smile.gif