Baluga theorem? TPTK

[Fiksdal]

Villain is 51/14/0.75 over 87 hands His turn agression factor is 1.75.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.05/$0.10 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

SB: $9.90
<u>BB: $18.80</u>
<u>Hero (UTG): $10.15</u>
CO: $7.30
BTN: $5.90

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.85) T/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.80</font>, BB calls $0.80

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($2.45) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.80</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $17.60</font>, Hero calls all-in for $7.15

Is this a good call?

[matrix]

no.

fold turn. but standard otherwise.

[Machavelli]

Fold. Take note.

[jmgambler]

NO, its not........ You only beat AQ/AJ and I cannot see a player doing this on the turn, he would raise you on the flop with such a hand.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
You only beat AQ/AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

prob doesn't matter in this hand or at this particular level, but it's thinking like this that keeps people from learning how to move up

[Machavelli]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You only beat AQ/AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

prob doesn't matter in this hand or at this particular level, but it's thinking like this that keeps people from learning how to move up

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you implying we should be looking at hands like combo draws as a possible holding for villain?

[0evg0]

prob not at 10nl, but even at 50nl against some regs ya

[jmgambler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You only beat AQ/AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

prob doesn't matter in this hand or at this particular level, but it's thinking like this that keeps people from learning how to move up

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry, do me a favor and step down from your pedastal for a second, and explain exactly what you mean by that?

I was under the assumption, that this forum was an exchange of ideas, This has often helped me when forum contributors explain why such &amp; such action is wrong or why its better to do something a different way etc etc.

When you start getting sanctamonious, without explaining the rationale for your comments, all it does is lose any respect people have for you.

[tarheeljks]

why would a combo draw wait until the turn to force the action?

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
why would a combo draw wait until the turn to force the action?

[/ QUOTE ] EG. T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
why would a combo draw wait until the turn to force the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

because he just made another $1.80

[Xanta]

That doesn't make any sense, his equity versus villain's calling range plummets with the blank turn. Villain's calling range expands a little too. I mean, this logic probably doesn't apply because villain is a drooler but against a half decent player I expect to never see a combo draw there.

[0evg0]

i didn't say he was playing well if he showed up with a combo draw, but people misapply things all the time

and the real reason you do something like shove a draw here is so that the stacks work out for it (which it obv does not here)

i'm done posting strat in here for a bit. this is not a complicated theory at all and i just dont have the energy and charity to explain everything. especially since there are losing 10nl players getting on my case about "my attitude" (not Xanta)

[barryc83]

This is a fold againt this opponent IMO. I doubt hes pushing a draw, he could however overvalue Ax.

[EMc]

Im never folding here. Baluga is great, but often mis-applied. You are going to be WA here a lot. Im calling and seeing a river, its very possible you are overvaluing Ax.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
Im never folding here. Baluga is great, but often mis-applied. You are going to be WA here a lot. Im calling and seeing a river, its very possible you are overvaluing Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make this call against what appears to be a typical loose passive calling station fish @ 50nl? Balugas usually right in these spots IME.

[evazan]

I am not calling here. At micro-stakes the line the majority of bad players take with their good hands is call-flop, raise turn. This move radiates strength at these limits. Villains AF is only .75. I do not see him playing a combo draw or Ax like this. The only way I make this call is if a I have a read that villain will play weak hands overly aggressive.

[kayfish77]

fold... why is this even a question? the pot is 2 dollars we have one pair and no redraw. people saying call what are u putting the villian on? like its possible were ahead but if you consisntely play for stacks in situations like this you will go busto.

[EMc]

Ok, I thought he min-raised, which is what Baluga states. In this situation, im more torn here, ill fold the first time he does this but if I see him do it again ill call.

[cubase]

It's already been said but I'll elaborate a little further.

The 0.75 aggression factor makes this a clear fold for me unless I have notes/reads on the player that tells me otherwise. Being 51 VPIP, he's calling with any dry ace and he will call to the river with it, unless he hits his kicker. When he hits his kicker, he will get very aggressive as long as the board is safe (in his eyes). I've seen calling stations call me to the river with sets before so this is semi-read dependent. Some calling stations are afraid to bet, period.

While calling stations vary their behavior slightly, my overall impression at this level is that they check-raise or check/call the flop if he they hit their hand on the flop. Another percentage will wait until the turn before they raise. If for whatever reason you check behind on the turn and they lead/raise the river, I also find that you are beat. These guys just do not bet without TPTK or two-pair+.

If they do bet, I find that they either weak-lead with their dry ace (and check-call to the river), or they check-raise, except on the river, where they will lead unless the board is scary to them (for example, I just looked up a hand where the calling station checked the flop when he flopped the nut straight, raised on the turn, and checked the river when the board paired).

Without any additional reads than his stats, I'm folding here and will continue to watch him. If I see him make that move with anything less than two-pair, I will note it. It is rare to see this player shove without a made hand unless he is on tilt, extremely short-stacked, or both.

This is just in my experience, mind you, at this level. I've only played 23k hands @ 10NL, and just recently made the move to 25NL.

One interesting excercise you can do is find the calling stations in PokerTracker that you've met at this level and find their big winning hands. Study their betting patterns. I think you will find that unless they have two-pair+, most of the time they are check-calling to the river. The nice thing about these guys is that most of the time, they let you know when they hit.

Edit: Just wanted to add that I obviously cannot account for all behaviors of calling stations, but those are some general ideas I use in a readless situation. Some will check to the raiser, some will weak-donk bet with a huge hand, call the raise, weak-donk the turn, call the raise, and finally lead into you on the river for a 3/4+ bet. Again, I encourage you to visit your PT history and analyze the betting patterns.

[Bowlboy]

[ QUOTE ]
fold... why is this even a question? the pot is 2 dollars

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the pot is $11.40 as far as hero is concerned. Calling $7.15 into an $11.40 pot with TPTK at 10NL is'nt all that bad imo, though i'm not too happy that it's coming from a guy who's AF is .75 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Folding is probably good here but I think it's a lot closer than most think given the level of play and the pot odds.

And why does somebody have to be raising the flop with AQ or AJ when their overall aggression is .75 and their turn aggression is double that? Maybe I'm reading into this too much but is that not an indication that villain could be one who slowplays like any made hand on the flop and then starts jamming the turn?

Edit: Come to think of it you wouldnt believe how many people will play JJ-KK like this as well at 10NL. It's a joke. I dont understand their reasoning for making moves on turn but it happens a lot.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]

Folding is probably good here but I think it's a lot closer than most think given the level of play and the pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thoughts.

And Cubase

Great post, really. Thanks for the effort.