50NL: Turn set but get c/raised...suddenly unsure

[Chomp]

Villain 55/3/2. So clearly a world champion in the making.

Pretty unsure about the maths and poker theory here, so help on my thought process much appreciated.

On turn, I'm being offered 4/1 on my money after villain's c/r, there's quite a bit of dead money in the middle, and although I have zero FE, I probably have the best hand at least 20% of the time. So is that a call or a push?

On river, as I'm getting 3/1 on my money and thus only need to be good c.25% of the time, a call is ok.


Thanks.

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($65.45)</font>
Button ($14.94)
SB ($56.15)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($37.50)</font>
UTG ($69.16)
MP ($71.39)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.25) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $7.

River: ($38.25) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB calls $18.50 (All-In), Hero calls $18.50.

Final Pot: $75.25

[barryc83]

Everything is standard besides the cbet IMO. So many 2 pair hands out there.

[jmgambler]

Absolutely........ I hit my 2-outter on the turn? you better believe its gonna get called.

[Machavelli]

This hand is played fine.

[0evg0]

3bet shove turn

he never folds his pair + gutshot/2pair if he is c/minraising it here, but he might fold on river

and you have 2nd practical nuts dude, were you implying you should fold?

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
3bet shove turn

he never folds his pair + gutshot/2pair if he is c/minraising it here, but he might fold on river

and you have 2nd practical nuts dude, were you implying you should fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, good point on his wide turn calling range v. narrower river one.

Didn't mean to imply I'd ever fold river, just doing mental gymnastics.