NL 50: Am I crazy to fold a set of queens ?

[Gesangsverein]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players

Seat 2: villain ($59.45)
Seat 5: hero ($50)
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2.75</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $7.5</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($15.75, 2 players)
hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($15.75, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $16</font>, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $16 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $15.75
Do you have any ideas about this hand ? I thought about bet flop and push if raised...but I`m actually quite unsure how to handle this situation.

[stonescar]

Fix the converter...

Why are you not betting this flop?
You 3-bet preflop and represent a big pair/AK, this flop looks more dangerous to him than it does to you. He could have a lot of holdings, including 22-99 and SCs. He might have AK or AQ here, but with any other hands than AQ he has to worry about a set.

You made a difficult situation on turn by not betting flop, so I don't think I manage to fold here. I would probably shove it as you are still ahead of a good part of his range, and you have outs vs the aces.

[fingersmith]

Definitely a scary flop, but if you 3bet preflop, I think you have to take a shot at it. With 9.5 outs I wouldn't feel terrible about reraising all-in if you get minraised. Your stack size means you wouldn't have that much fold equity, but it would still be a tough decision for Villain. If he has AQ oh well.

Edit: as played, I'd probably push to his turn raise and puke. He probably has the A, but there are times when he won't, and you can still fill up on the river.

[kayfish77]

the advice given above me is horrible. dont push over his raise. cbet the flop. as played instamuck the turn.

[fingersmith]

kay, villains range includes about a bazillion hands that we beat. More importantly, villain CHECKED THE FLOP, and Hero has checked twice in a row, showing major weakness, so Villain is making this turn bet with ANY of those holdings, as well as others like KQ, KJ, JJ, TT, which we crush. Plus we have full house outs. Pushing is not "horrible"

[thac]

Reads would help. Betting the flop would help.


Fingersmith - KQ and KJ don't call that 3-bet preflop, nor do they bet the turn there. Nothing but an ace bets that turn, and if you think they do, you are sadly mistaken (disclaimer: if villain is a 85/45 retard, sure, other than that, nothing but an ace bets this turn).

[Pegasus]

Your pre flop reraise is way too small, make more like 10 to 12...

then lead flop 2/3 to 3/4 pot...

if called then you just made a set and have 10 outs to fill up or hit quads which youre about 4-1 to hit so if he bets turn and youre getting correct pot odds (don't forget implied odds either) you should call.

as played you dont have odds so it's a clear fold

[Bowlboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Reads would help. Betting the flop would help.


Fingersmith - KQ and KJ don't call that 3-bet preflop, nor do they bet the turn there. Nothing but an ace bets that turn, and if you think they do, you are sadly mistaken (disclaimer: if villain is a 85/45 retard, sure, other than that, nothing but an ace bets this turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, nothing but an ace or a boat bets that turn. But ya, villain would have to be a huge donk to bet without having the straight here.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reads would help. Betting the flop would help.


Fingersmith - KQ and KJ don't call that 3-bet preflop, nor do they bet the turn there. Nothing but an ace bets that turn, and if you think they do, you are sadly mistaken (disclaimer: if villain is a 85/45 retard, sure, other than that, nothing but an ace bets this turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, nothing but an ace or a boat bets that turn. But ya, villain would have to be a huge donk to bet without having the straight here.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol and how exactly do you plan on getting a boat on this board?

[ocdscale]

[ QUOTE ]
cbet the flop. as played instamuck the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Machavelli]

Why aren't you leading this flop? You showed a lot of strength pre-flop with a solid re-raise, you land a flop with 2nd pair and an OESD, why check? You can probably take this down right now and if not you have outs.

As played, damn.....fold?

[Ramana]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
cbet the flop. as played instamuck the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

If we bet flop and get called, do we call a turn push? We would need to call 30 into a 70 pot having about 25% equity. Or do we push turn ourselves?

[Vinetou]

If you push turn, you are only going to get called with an ace so Bet flop check fold turn.

[Knight Vision]

- buy-in full
- give the donks credit for an ace every time
- profit

[matrix]

bet 3bet all-in on this flop.

you 3bet pre - then checked a broadway flop - then checked the turn.

Any villain is betting with pretty much ATC here hoping you fold.

Ace broadway will bet the flop for you cos they hit.

as played you got to fold the turn (ugh) cos pot odds are horrible - bet the flop and you can often get all-in here before the turn even comes I think.

[Lordy]

[ QUOTE ]
bet 3bet all-in on this flop.

you 3bet pre - then checked a broadway flop - then checked the turn.

Any villain is betting with pretty much ATC here hoping you fold.

Ace broadway will bet the flop for you cos they hit.

as played you got to fold the turn (ugh) cos pot odds are horrible - bet the flop and you can often get all-in here before the turn even comes I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, I'd bet/fold the flop. 25% equity against TT+/AQ+ and I don't see anything else raising... Maybe I'm giving too much credit.

[Vinetou]

How can you 3 bet on such a scary board?

[stonescar]

[ QUOTE ]
the advice given above me is horrible. dont push over his raise. cbet the flop. as played instamuck the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/frown.gif You're right. I have this urge to spew all my money away if I screw up on the previous street.

I'm glad I don't get into these situations. Problem is that villain could bet ATC after you've checked twice - but of course, pushing won't help, unless he's a super donk. I just never fold sets 100bb deep, and that's normally a good rule. Calling is less horrible than raising, but folding is probably best.

[fingersmith]

Agreed. After reading all the responses I see how pushing the turn is probably the worst play. My thinking was similar to stonescar's.

Glad we all agree on betting the flop, which would have avoided the situation entirely...

[Brian O'Nolan]

Are you checking the flop to CRAI? I think a lead is better but c/r is definitely better than c/c and might be preferable to leading against some villains. PSB would be good on this wet a flop- if you get raised you pretty much have to shove. Villain could have KQ/KJ here easily... the other day a guy who I had a couple hundred hands of playing solid 18/14 @ 50NL called my 3bet OOP w/ KT and no weird meta considerations. So I wouldn't be super happy about getting raised on the flop but you easily have enough equity to get it AI.

[Xanta]

If we're in position, we are checking this flop, correct?

I think that if he raises the flop, we're absolutely toast against his range. Consider how scary our hand looks to him, we 3bet an early position raiser and then led out on a broadway flop. Our range is very narrow here and villain knows it, unless he's an absolute drooler. His raising range is consequentially really narrow, basically TT+, AK, AQ, or air if he's suicidal. Our equity is garbage against his range, so a bet/3bet AI is a big big spew I think. I bet/fold here.

[Brian O'Nolan]

I would give a little wider range to an unknown (some air, naked FD) but vs KQ/AK/AA/2pr+ you have 32% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

64,350 games 0.005 secs 12,870,000 games/sec

Board: Tc Kc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.307% 29.65% 02.66% 19077 1712.50 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 67.693% 65.03% 02.66% 41848 1712.50 { AA, JJ-TT, AQs+, KTs+, JTs, AQo+, KTo+, JTo }

[Xanta]

Half of that range is really unrealistic given preflop and no reads from the OP.

[jmgambler]

I dont get why you checked the flop?... you R/R PF there is a broadway flop (opp must assume this is good for you, no?) and you check, then a Q comes and you check the turn..... so UTG and his ragged A, now have the nuts and bet accordingly

[Xanta]

I'm guessing he checked the flop because villains range is really polarized by this kind of flop. If villain is behind, he'll know it and he'll fold (22-99, A2-AJ). If villain is ahead, he'll be loving his hand (AQ, TT, JJ, KK, less so but still with AK and AA) and he's never gonna fold. The only problem with checking the flop is that it leaves us completely in the dark and very very prone to getting bluffed by the part of villains range that we beat.

[Suaimhnea]

Lead the flop.

As played, it's an easy fold.

[Xanta]

I still haven't heard a convincing reason to bet the flop. The advice in this flop has been basically 'your hand looks really scary on this board, bet and make 22-99 fold.' Checking makes a blank turn really tough to play but I feel like it's more +EV than cbetting.

I'd like a little more discussion on this one. Betting and then not putting another dime in the pot just feels dirty in this spot, but it might be the right play. I remain convinced that b/3b is wrong though.

[Bantam222]

[ QUOTE ]
dont push over his raise. cbet the flop. as played instamuck the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mikechops]

I don't mind the flop check - though betting is fine - and I call the turn. We have 25% chance to fill up or spike an Ace for the tie. We get the boat we stack him - $50 pot $25 behind - easy fold if we miss.