$50NL: Two KK Hands (No, Not Folding Preflop)

[OHFreak]

Sorry no HH on this computer, so this is from memory. 100BB effective stacks in both.

Hand 1:

Hero (UTG) raises to $2 with KK.
Button (stats around 18/11/3 and overall seemed reasonable) 3-bets to $6.
Hero 4-bets to $15.
Button calls.

Flop is 9 7 4 rainbow.

Hero checks.
Button bets $15.
Hero?

What range do you put him on here? Seems like a push or fold situation, eh?


Hand 2:

SB (virtually unknown over 15 hands or so) limps in.
Hero raises to $2 (again with KK).
SB calls.

Flop is Qh Th 3x.

SB donks out for $4 (pot-sized bet).
Hero raises to $16.
SB pushes.
Hero?

Again what range do you put him on here? BVB is difficult to tell whether he's got 2-pair, a set or something like KQ, KJ or two hearts. Profitable to call this bet from an unknown?

[HasPair]

#1:

I would propably push.. I guess he has something like TT-AA..

#2:

This is hard to comment. He could have QT or a set, or he could be a donk with KQ. Board is also very drawish, se he could very well be on a draw.

Hand 0: 53.084% 52.57% 00.51% 546.00 { 33, KQs, QTs, KQo, QTo }
Hand 1: 46.916% 46.41% 00.51% 546.00 { KK }

If we add some combo flush/straigh draws we are like 50/50ish so I would prolly call this.

[paulw]

Hand 1 I think it's all going in, definitely TT-AA here, I probably lead the flop, as played his half pot bet looks kinda weak to me, so I shove it in.

Hand 2 I think this is read dependant for me. Completely depends on how I've seen him play draws, if he has over played top pair like this before, against an unknown without reads, getting 2:1 or so here I think this is a call but only just.

[bluffbetter]

Hand 1

If button knows you are raising tight then he may well not reraise pre with 10 10 or JJ, although he does have quite a high PF raise %. Ideally you would have other hands on him where you know what he's reraised with in position or at least know his PF reraising %.

[juggler97531]

1. hand
you have 35BB behind in 30BB pot with KK on ragged flop.
i don't think about opponent range. it's not important. you are destined to loose your stack if he has better.
2. hand is difficult.
i would like more to raise him to 12 only. Then i would have easy fold to a push.
also calling flop bet and wait for safe turn is an option.

[stonescar]

#1:
Wtf? Are you serious about letting this go?
The only possible reason I can think of to check this flop is to check-raise all-in. FWIW I just bet flop and call if he pushes. I think felting this hand in a reraised pot is very standard. Since villain is "reasonable" he just about never has a set. If he has AA, so be it. He has QQ-TT a lot here, and could also have AK (although AK would fold to the push). Actually I like your flop check if you shove. I think you could gain an extra bet against AK, and TT-QQ might feel pot committed. Also, this flop is really good for you. Giving a freecard won't lose you the pot, and you'll get action from all the overpairs in his range.

#2:
I don't really know the nl50 games, so it's kind of hard to comment on the unknowns there.

When he shoves the pot is $68 and you have to call $32.
In other words you have to be good about 32% to make this profitable.

I'll throw out some numbers for worst-case scenarios:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.196% 37.09% 00.11% 76000 226.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 62.804% 62.69% 00.11% 128478 226.00 { QQ, TT, 33, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, KsQs, QTs, T3s, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs, QTo, T3o }

As you can see here, against this (IMO) VERY TIGHT range you can profitably call. I have even discounted AQ/KQ by 50%, since there might be some players at NL50 not willing to push with top pair here. I also added QQ even though I think it's unlikely to limp/call preflop. If you add the rest of AQ/KQ, and some combo draws, and discount QQ/TT you make lots of monies by calling here.

EDIT:
I misread the hand. I thought villain was in EP. I think that makes AQ/QQ/TT less likely. He still might have a KQ or QJ, since I think TPGK is more likely to end up allin blind vs blind. It might be a bit more marginal than my first ev calc, but against an unknown I'm having trouble folding here.

[crovax4444]

hand 1, I'm felting it, but our hand is practically face up. That being said, I'm still not letting it go

Crovax

[JadeRedstone]

If I had Q's in hand 1 I might go c/c to SD. With K's the only reason I don't 4 bet it PF is to trap him later on.
Unless I have a very good read I do not mind paying A's with K's every day.