NL50 6m - Put to the test on the turn

[kazana]

Villain is around 30/18/2 over a smallish sample (~75 hands).
Not much history, but we have tangled a bit. Usually in steal situations, where he 3-bet my raises from BTN or SB a few times rather light. I made him fold some of those 3-bets preflop or on the turn.

My image is rather solid, but with plenty of c-bets (~90%). So far, I've only shown down pretty good hands, including stackage AA > KK, and a few orbits ago against this particular villain, a boat vs his slowplayed low trips for a big chunk of his stack.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/))

SB: $70.96
BB: $50
UTG: $66.60
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $140</font>
BTN: $41.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kc.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kd.png (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($6.25) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/3h.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Jc.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9h.png (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.25</font>, BTN calls $4.25, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($14.75) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8d.png (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.25</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $35.50</font>, Hero ...

Discuss.

[ocdscale]

This looks like Baluga here.
You need 30% to call. Even if you include a larger (optimistic) range (TPTK, 1P+OESD) you only have 40%, and I'm inclined to discount some of the more speculative holdings significantly.

Board: 3h Jc 9h 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.341% 40.34% 00.00% 426 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 59.659% 59.66% 00.00% 630 0.00 { JJ-99, AJs, QTs, J9s+ }

[jmgambler]

Your Toast, Fold

[kazana]

Baluga? I can't see any Baluga going on here, unless I'm unaware of another theorem from him (other than the one that no one ever folds a boat).

[OHFreak]

Zeebo Theorem: no one ever folds a boat

Baluga Theorem: turn raise means one pair is toast

Yeti Theorem: some crap about nobody 3-bets trips (also some anti-Yeti theorem)

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
Your Toast, Fold

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, one liners and such are pretty cool. But I'd like to hear some more reasoning.

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
Zeebo Theorem: no one ever folds a boat

Baluga Theorem: turn raise means one pair is toast

Yeti Theorem: some crap about nobody 3-bets trips (also some anti-Yeti theorem)

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, cool, thanks.
I had zeebo and baluga mixed up in my mind.

What do you think are the chances that villain does this with air, assuming he knows I should be aware of that?

[OHFreak]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Zeebo Theorem: no one ever folds a boat

Baluga Theorem: turn raise means one pair is toast

Yeti Theorem: some crap about nobody 3-bets trips (also some anti-Yeti theorem)

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, cool, thanks.
I had zeebo and baluga mixed up in my mind.

What do you think are the chances that villain does this with air, assuming he knows I should be aware of that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I normally wouldn't attribute that many layers of thought to my opponents.

Pretty straightforwardly, you've done nothing but show strength and he doesn't seem to care. I think he's expecting to get called.

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
I normally wouldn't attribute that many layers of thought to my opponents.

Pretty straightforwardly, you've done nothing but show strength and he doesn't seem to care. I think he's expecting to get called.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty certain, this villain could do that with air. He's been bluffing a few times and going nuts with air preflop just to keep the pressure up postflop without a hand. Like in those cases where I forced him to fold after he's been 3-betting me preflop.

In this situation, I did fold, though.
If he had 3-bet me again preflop (like many times before), I'd probably be more inclined to call - well, actually I prolly would've pushed preflop then.
It's his rather unusual cold-call that made me wary, and I felt his hand was tilted towards a medium/low pocket pair or medium range suited connectors. And against that range, I'm either in a lot of trouble, or not too far ahead.
That, and the last time he went all-out aggro (albeit on the river) he had slowplayed trips, is what made me fold.

Just wanted to see what other uNLers think of this.
Thanks for your replies.

[kazana]

And here, just for completeness' sake, is that other hand we played about 2-3 orbits prior to this hand:

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/))

SB: $72.71
BB: $99.40
UTG: $46.55
MP: $56.35
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $80.75</font>
BTN: $60.50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.png (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($6.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qh.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5d.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5s.png (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($6.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9s.png (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $8</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $4.50

<font color="black">River:</font> ($22.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Ks.png (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $11</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $39.50</font>, BTN calls $28.50

Pot Size: $101.50 ($3 Rake)

BTN had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5h.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4h.png (three of a kind, Fives) and LOST (-$49.50)
Hero had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qd.png http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.png (a full house, Queens full of Fives) and WON (+$49)


It's that contrast between how he raised on the turn, that made it difficult in the first place. Here he was raising just a tad more than a minraise as opposed to his shove on the other turn.

[Genz]

The board is pretty coordinated. He could be semi-bluffing with a combo-draw. But I think that is basically all you can hope for. He really played this hand slowly which is atypical for him. So he seems to have an implied-odds-hand like a small pair or some suited connector. This board is a Dorado for these hands. I don't even think that he will play a big pair like this because he knows that you will play back preflop or on the flop with all kinds of hands. So he doesn't even have to trap with QQ-AA if he wants to get it all-in early. I think a fold is good here.

[Genz]

Well. Looking at the other hand he seems to slowplay sometimes. He still beats TP or overpair when he does, though...

[ciro bonano]

I'm betting a bit more on the flop in OP's hand, being coordinated and 3-way.

I fold this, you can only beat a bluff, unless you have a read that he is capable of semibluffing here with a big combo draw, but this seems unreasonable.