50NL: Deep stack poker vs known tourney pro. Proper play?

[SirFelixCat]

Tourney pro is 48/28/2.4 over @100 hands. Not sure how he got deep stacked, but seems pretty doggone aggressive, but a thinking player. Not a monkey by any means.

Now, keep in mind that this was my first day moving up in limits (few days ago) and I was still adjusting to the stack size differences (hey, I'm human...after 25NL, these are real deep to me). That said, what do you think villain has and is there a good chance to bluff the river and it working? Thoughts on all streets appreciated.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/))

SB: $114.80
BB: $51.50
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $113.10</font>
CO: $29.10
BTN: $37.15

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($6.50) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $5.50</font>, SB calls $5.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $18.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($60) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($60) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

[doppelganger]

This sure looks like he missed a draw to me. (QTs maybe?) I can't decide. In the heat of the moment I probably admit defeat and check, but I bet there's some real value in a bluff here. If you're going to try it, it needs to be big enough to be believable, so around $50.

edit: You also still have a pretty darn good semibluffing hand on the turn. I might put another $40 in when he checks and fold to a c/r.

edit2: Ok, folding to a c/r on the turn would be ridiculous, since you'd have to call based on pot odds. Which means I probably plan on going broke on the turn.

[thac]

I think if you're gonna do anything, you need to bet the turn, but I don't see him folding after cold-calling twice. It seems really fishy. Like, it confuses me. You could probably bet/3bet the flop, but since you didn't, betting the turn seems really strong and it looks like JJ. Raise UTG, check-raise flop and bet the turn..

You wanna bet an amount to where you price yourself in and if he shoves, complain and call because you're still around 30% to hit on the river.

I think betting around 45-50 on the turn is VERY strong looking, and unless he has a set, he doesn't beat anything there. It leaves you like ~30 left into a huge pot and it's MUCH more believable than you checking your set/overpair here on such a draw-heavy board.. ya know?


--This is spewy, but I guess I'm commenting on if you WANT to bluff, do it on the turn, not the river. It's best to just give up unless you hit your hand, just save your losses.

[Spechel EDD]

what are his showdown stats

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
what are his showdown stats

[/ QUOTE ]

28/60

[Keys Myaths]

This is a draw more than 1/3 of the time, especially with the flop action.

Beauty of that is, it doesn't take more than $20 to get him off it.

Bet $20. That'll make the other draws fold, and it's +EV enough.

[ocdscale]

I like semi-bluffing turn again. You have double gut-shot and a flush draw.

[KriStuS]

I don't like the CR on the flop, very unnecessary. Yes, your draw is supersolid, but it just get you into trouble if you get a call and are OOP. And why do you even think that button will bet in the first place? I think that we will see him check behind a lot of the time.

I would just fire on the flop and hopefully get them both to fold or get position. If one of the reraises it's shoving time. If they call I just hope to hit or get a free river (if we get button to fold with the flop bet and therefore have position it's easy to get a free river).

It's not mandatory to get deep even with a draw like this.