Simple EV question that for some reason is confusing me right now

[Lego05]

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Td 2d 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.465% 26.46% 00.00% 2358 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 73.535% 73.54% 00.00% 6552 0.00 { TT-99, 22 }

So if you are surely vs a set, you need 3:1 to be break even. The pot is already $31 and you have $37 left. Assuming you push and get called 100% of the time, you're getting 2:1, so it's definitely a bad play.


That quote is from another thread.
Is that right?
If we win 25% of the time then we need 3 to 1 since say we have to call 4 into 12. We win once and win 12. We lose 3 times and lose 12 so breakeven is 3 to 1.

But the EV that Poker Stove calculate sis not a winning percentage, correct?

Example: $105 dollar pot
If you have 25% equity then you win $105 25% of the time or $26.25 on average. (To make this simpler say we're calling a push.) Say we need to call $35. That's us getting 3 to 1: calling $35 into pot of $105. But $35 is more than the $26.25 that we make on average.

Now if we were getting 4 to 1 we would have to call $26.25 which equals the amount that we make on average so isn't that the breakeven point?

So this makes it seem like we need 4 to 1.



Anybody?

[corsakh]

Errr... You are confusing yourself. Calling $15 in $30 pot is breakeven in this situation, anything more than that your are wasting chips. Thing is, how can you ever put someone stricktly on a set.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Errr... You are confusing yourself. Calling $15 in $30 pot is breakeven in this situation, anything more than that your are wasting chips. Thing is, how can you ever put someone stricktly on a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point. Assuming you have 25% equity what do you need to be getting to make the call is basically my question?

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Errr... You are confusing yourself. Calling $15 in $30 pot is breakeven in this situation, anything more than that your are wasting chips. Thing is, how can you ever put someone stricktly on a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point. Assuming you have 25% equity what do you need to be getting to make the call is basically my question?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have 25% equity when you go all in, the pot has to offer you 3-1.
Let's say you ahave $10 left (opponent has you covered), pot is $20, and opponent pushes, making the pot $30 total.
25% equity=you win one time in 4.So you call and lose 3 times, losing 3*$10=$30 and you call and win 1 time, winning $30.

So bottomline with 25% equity, the pot, INCLUDING opponents bet, has to offer you 3-1.

[derosnec]

your equity in the pot $7.75 (25% of 31). yet you are betting $37 knowing you will be called. assuming he has $37 left, your push gives you an equity of $26.25 ($105 x .25). so you're betting $37 to win $26.25.

[Ramana]

If you wanna be even money, You'll need to make only 0 profit. You put in $35 each time, and get back $26.25 back every time you play that hand. $26.25*4=105. You've lost 105, that is 35*3. And won 105 once, that's the pot.

Now, if you were getting 4:1 instead of 3:1, that is 20% instead of 25%. You'd need to make $21 with each bet to be even: $21*5=105. The max you can call if you want to be even is exactly $26.25. Here's the simple math behind it:

1(105)-4(x)=0 |+4x
105=4x |:4
26.25=x