Chance to play full time - take my shot?

[BingoChimp]

Not sure where to start so I’ll just pile in and see what happens. Apologies if this gets a little long…

I’m 35, married, no kids and am in a boring IT job that sends me to sleep.

I have been playing “winning” poker for about 18 months. I don’t have any charts to post or even PT stats because, so far, I haven’t used them. I know I am winning as my original deposit to the site I mainly play at I have multiplied by x 30. I don’t play huge stakes – mainly $20 or $30 STT and MTT with a bit of ring game play thrown in..all NL.

A situation has come about at work where some staff are to be released on a voluntary basis due to a reorganisation of our services. If I have done my sums right then I stand to take about $70k if I apply for early severance. That’s after tax.

So here’s my dilemma – I have a chance at playing full time. I should also point out that if I pass this opportunity, in about 12 to 18 months time our services are going to be reconsidered and I may end up being forced into a job that I don’t want to do in a place that I probably don’t want to be – but it’s not guaranteed. I could end up being the same as I am now. The chances are the cash offer is just this one time though.

My wife will fully support me if I choose to apply to be paid off.

I’d like to think I have really thought this through. I would have plenty to use as a bankroll, with a separate amount to use if I didn’t make my target for the month. I would need to take about $1700 a month to basically have the same standard of living I have now. I should point out that I’m in the UK and tax is not an issue. I play mainly online but do have good results when I play live. Assuming that most will be online play though. If I went on an appalling downswing for some reason I would still have enough to cover living expenses for around 15 months.

I believe I will have the motivation to put in the hours required but I do know I will need to work on my mentality towards bad beats and idiotic calls. I know I should welcome them as they ultimately earn me money.I'm not a bad tilter though, If i get that annoyed I just take a break and remind myself that I made the right decisions.

Even after re-reading this I still feel weak tight – should I pass up what is considered to be a good job, with good money or should I thank my lucky stars that I have a chance of doing something I really do want to do and jump at it feet first?

I guess I’m looking for advice on things I may have overlooked, or perhaps theres a person or two who has been in exactly this position and doesn’t mind sharing their experiences?

I have a friend who plays full time in a very similar manner and has been doing fine for 2 years. He’s a good source of experience in this situation and especially If I do take the payoff as I know I will have to look at bonus whoring, pokertracker stats etc to help fix my leaks. It’s also good to have someone I can chat to face to face who knows EXACTLY what I’m talking about.

Thanks for listening

BingoChimp

[Jeff Oneye]

I think you have answered your own question. I know many people would love to be in your situation with that opportunity. My suggestion would be to accept the severance pay and set aside the bulk of that money in case you don't perform well.

I would proceed with caution and set a strict limit on how much you're willing to LOSE. For example, use 10K as your bankroll and if you bust out consider finding a new job. This might mean playing lower limits than you're accustomed to but if you're as strong a player as your stated results indicate this will be only temporary.

Build a comfortable bankroll before you even think about moving up. Do not rationalize going back into your funds if you bust out. You have plenty of funds if you start at modest limits and work your way up or just accept a modest win rate.

Many people would dream of being in your position. The freedom it would entail would be very nice I imagine. Futhermore, you're in the UK and are not subject to many concerns faced by your American rivals. That being said, this is a pretty important decision, not to be taken lightly. My only fear is that you will start to lose and not accept the proposition that looking for conventional work is a better alternative. Of course, this is my own perspective and it assumes you're a winning player. Lastly, TILT sounds like a potential issue for you. Remember that you're never entitled to a pot unless you take it down. The outcome of a hand is irrelevant in the scheme of things; it's the outcome over time that's important. I would encourage bad beats and remember you becoming upset about them results from irrational thinking. Anyways, I wish you success in whatever pursuit you choose.

JeffreyREBT

[Mr. Curious]

[ QUOTE ]
in a boring IT job that sends me to sleep

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I stand to take about $70k

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not take the cash and spend a few months figuring out what you really want to do next? If it ends up being poker, that's cool, but don't push yourself into full time poker if you do not have to.

[phydaux]

The thing I keep tripping over is you don't use PT.

You concider yourself a serious poker player, but you don't take the game seriously enough to document and examin your own play?

I bet you constantly use over a dozen simple utility programs to help manage your network as part of your IT job. PT is just a utility that you can use to manage your poker play.

Anyway, I'd say if you're not jumping up & down and yelling & screaming for joy about how your boss is funding your new poker career, the you don't have the enthusiasm for pro play. I'd hate to see you posting here in six months about how you can bearly force yourself to turn on your computer monitor.

That's not to say you won't ever get the enthusiasm, you just don't seem to have it now. Perhaps six months of grinding, frustration job search will change things?

Regardless, you seem to have a fantastic opertunity. Thank your boss for the nice, big check. Pay off your credit cards, take the wife on a nice holiday, then bank the rest of the money. Spend a month or so deciding what you're really enthusiastic about and pursue that.

Keep the poker as a part time job. From what you say, it won't take long until your BR grows to 70k all by itself.

[Pog0]

You can give it a shot, but I wouldn't consider myself a professional until I have reasonable evidence that I can make $x/hour where x is an acceptable rate of pay. Having only played recreationally, I don't think you can make any claim of the sort. 1-tabling $30 tourneys will have you stand to make less than $10 an hour, so you'll have to experiment with different games and more tables until you find something that will allow you to live comfortably.

And just because you can fund yourself a 5-digit bankroll, doesn't mean you should jump into the 30/60 games right away. Make sure you can win there by playing lower. Mediocre players can make livable money in games as low as 3/6.

[mongoose51]

If you can get back into a well paying job easily if you fail at poker, it might be alright to take the 70k and give it a shot. If you lose 15k, then start looking for a new job. Poker for most good players is a good part time job.

[phydaux]

[ QUOTE ]
Make sure you can win there by playing lower. Mediocre players can make livable money in games as low as 3/6.

[/ QUOTE ]

My wife doesn't know it yet, but when I can four-table 2/4 I'm quitting my job. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[oddsock]

Have to agree with above - not using PT is something that must be reconsidered - especially when using the game as a living as opposed to a bit of profitable fun.

I don't think the OP is considering jumping into 30/60 games or anything like that - it sounds like he can spend a little while (even before quitting his job) looking at different games and seeing what works for him. There are plenty of people out there that make a good living multi-tabling mid-level STTs or 100NL games. I am even aware of a guy that claims to make his living at the 1-3 limit tables at the Excalibur Las Vegas! Of course, he lives in sheltered accomodation and claims he invented stairs.

I'd go for it - because lets face it, if you don't take the chance it will annoy you in the years to come.

[andyexpat]

Every year, I look back and realise how much I have learned, and naieve I was a year ago. The Russians have a saying, " Who never takes any risks, never gets to drink champagne".
GO FOR IT ! /images/graemlins/wink.gif
You live once, and will only have regrets in your old age for not giving it a go. You don't have any family responsibilities, so put away $30k for living expenses, $20k in the bank for a very rainy day, and use $20k as your bankroll. Lose the $20k and go back to the shity boring day job. What more stimulation do you need to succeed...?
Good Luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

P.S
Start to write a poker blog. It helps to concetrate on your own game, by writing about it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[BingoChimp]

Many thanks for the replies everyone, appreciated.

Just to confirm / deny a few things...

Enthusiasm - I would say the reason that I'm not jumping for joy at this opportunity is simply because there is a decision to be made. Remember I have a reasonable (if boring) and relatively well paid job for the area I'm in. If I don't apply to be paid off I still have a job. It would be different If I had just been told - thats it, you're out - here's a bag of cash. I'm a naturally cautious person I guess, meaning that I've been thinking..is this enough money to have a go at what I want to do? Will I be successful? It's just the way I am..I don't like to set myself up for disappointment by assuming everything is going to be rosy, I like to have it planned. That's what stops me jumping at it feet first.

Up to now my playing has been serious but on a casual basis only (if that makes sense). I appreciate that tools like pokertracker are helpful and I have downloaded the trial version and will be paying for full version in next couple of days. That was a foregone conclusion if I was having a go at playing for a living I would be using PT along with other tools. That said, I still analyse my play at every turn even though I havent been using it, it will just be an additional tool to help me improve my game even further. My results are good but I'm under no illusion that I don't have large holes in my game that need to be sorted. With Poker as an income this is the first thing that would be dissected to maximise my game.

And yes - I mainly play $20 to $30 STTs but I generally play 2 or 3 a time comfortably. I know I can't make a living playing one a time but this is exactly the kind of information I'm looking at now. How many hours do I need / want to put in and at what levels. To start I certainly won't be jumping out of the levels I feel comfortable at for the moment. I will put in more hours than currently (of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) and see how that works and adjust as needed.

The Blog idea is one I'll look at. Even if only I read it, it's something to look back on and /images/graemlins/cool.gif or /images/graemlins/blush.gif

BingoChimp

[boogiemang]

do it..severance is niiiice

[Newt_Buggs]

If you're 2-3 tabling $22s/$33s then you aren't ready yet, but its possible that you could be ready soon. Are you playing on party? If you could get up to 4 tabling with a 15% $22 ROI or 10% $33 ROI for $3 a tourney that would be about $15 an hour (5 tourneys an hour). If you can get a rakeback deal on top of that it will add $1-2 more an hour.

[sawseech]

you lack ring experience and i find that very troubling

however, you're being offered a 70k freeroll for leaving a job that "sends you to sleep" and only need to win 1700/month AND your wife is supporting your decision and there are no kids to worry about

[Tommy Angelo]

I don't think you should step into a life where the future is unknown. I think you should jump.

Tommy

[Riverman]

You are not playing high enough to support yourself. I would play bigger games and make sure I could beat them before quitting my job.

[BigPoppa]

Take the serverance, continue playing "part time" for a bit.

If you find that you can survive this as your only source of income emotionally, then start playing more and higher.

If not, keep making money at your current level and enjoy the $70k cushion you've given yourself to find what you truly want to do.

[Chamonyx]

Sorry, Dude, but 30x in 18 months suggests that you are not (yet) a very good player (assuming at least 10 hours per week on average).


Yes, it's nice to have a hobby that actually adds a bit of money rather than costing you. Yes, you MIGHT be able to make a 1700/month nut - but only because there are so many bad players out there at the moment.

If you want to try, why not dedicate the first 2 months to really trying to improve your game - and for god's sake buy PokerTracker! Then after this 2 month period, see what your average win rate really is and then decide if that sounds like a worthwhile wage for someone of your age, experience and responsibilities.

[Weatherhead03]

After you do:

[ QUOTE ]
dedicate the first 2 months to really trying to improve your game

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Buy PokerTracker

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
after this 2 month period, see what your average win rate really is

[/ QUOTE ]

You will be able to judge whether it is the right move or not more better than anyone on here.

[BingoChimp]

Thanks again for the replies.

I have pokertracker up and running now, and am hassling a RL friend to come and show me how best to use it. It seems to really struggle with my crypto hands - I need to look into that. It does get some of them but hangs up badly If I try to ask it to retrieve all thats in the folder at once.

The 2 month stint is a good idea. I will at least have stats to back up exactly what is going on.

For the record - I put in for the payoff....but..(isn't there always a but) ..we have been warned that if too many people apply then some will be disappointed. Obvious really. I will know mid next week I think.

BingoChimp

[Chamonyx]

You might find these threads useful when planning your "stint"...or not. Anyway, goodluck

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=4230209&page=