AQ hitting TPTK on flop turn comes K

I think I played this one terribly weak, villain is 30/17/2. I`m 27/13/3. Should I have lead the turn ?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($50.55)
BB ($10.25)
Hero ($56)
MP ($80.60)
CO ($53)
Button ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($6.75) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.5</font>, MP folds, CO calls $5.50.

Turn: ($17.75) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $9</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $26.75

[evazan]

Lead the turn, fold to a raise. River play is going to have to be read independent. Has he been floating flops and if so will he call a turn bet weak too? This is a tough spot to be in oop though and the way you played it can't be terrible.

[theRoot]

He'll likely bet the river too if you call his $9, with a K and with air. So you can only call if you intend to call a riverbet too. You probably need some specific reads to do that, so I think you should fold to his turn bet, as played.

But you can also lead the turn. Typically you'd raise about $10. Now he'll probably think twice before raising you with air. If he raises you now, you can be fairly sure you're beat(and this time it only cost you around $10, instead of the $9 + likely riverbet had you c/c the turn). If he calls you'll usually have the best hand on the turn. Also, a raise protects your hand against a FD and possibly a SD.
On the river I'd probably c/c most cards, as he is fairly aggressive and might still bet the river in an attempt to steal the pot. Also, it keeps the pot more manageable. But how you approach this can be highly dependent on table dynamics, previous encounters with villain etc.

This might not all be really accurate, but this basic analysis tells us a raise is better then a c/c

This leaves us with a c/f. If you agree that you'll be putting in $30 on both the turn and the river(probably an overestimation) you have a pot equity of 30/(30+30+17.75)= 0.39 = 39%. I think it's reasonable to guesstimate you'll win 39% of the times, or better(that is, when you have not yet faced his aggression).

Therefore, according to my logic, leading the turn is best.