Hey, we haven't had a fold kings preflop discussion in minutes..

[kurto]

I never post these but I actually have one where I'm angry with myself. I want to see if anyone agrees with where I'm coming from here....

$50 NL on Full tilt. We are currently 5 handed.

I have $75.60 and I'm in the BB.

Villain has approx $50 and is UTG+1. TAG stats... something like 15/7 and I had about 150 hands. I believe I was running nitty too at this table but not as much 22/11ish.

I have not shown down anything stupid and should have a good image.

UTG folds, Villain potraises to $1.75. Button and SB both call. I potraise it to $8.75 from the BB. Villain immediately 4 bets it to $25. folds to me.

Here was my thoughts that I completely ignored.
(1) I don't think for a second he thinks I'm bluffing. I haven't showed down any bluffs. I'm out of position yet I raised an EP nitty open-raiser with 2 smoothcallers.
(2) He RERAISES me without pushing... he's essentially isolating me, pot committing us both without pushing. And he's doing this with 2 people still to act after him.
(3) I can't stress that I'm the 2nd nittiest player at this table and should have a great table image.

His bet is begging me to call or push.

I know its only 100bb but come on... I just don't see a guy that nitty doing this with AK because I think this player is smart enough to know what I'm representing. I may as well have just flipped my cards over preflop. There's no way he puts me on anything worse then QQ/KK/AA... at worst AK... Frankly, his raise to $25 is scarier then a push because he's trying to keep me in.

Work with me.

[hra146]

push

[wildzer0]

I never ever ever fold kings preflop, and honestly, I think that's a sound strategy. Not to just ignore your analysis but even the nittiest players are going to play this way with a wider range than aces. I had an almost identical hand today, nittiest player at the table, 4-bet me in the same manner, I push with kings, he calls with JJ. Admittedly that's wider than most nitty players' ranges will be there, but their ranges will be wide enough to make blindly getting it all in preflop with KK +EV overall I think.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I never ever ever fold kings preflop, and honestly, I think that's a sound strategy. Not to just ignore your analysis but even the nittiest players are going to play this way with a wider range than aces. I had an almost identical hand today, nittiest player at the table, 4-bet me in the same manner, I push with kings, he calls with JJ. Admittedly that's wider than most nitty players' ranges will be there, but their ranges will be wide enough to make blindly getting it all in preflop with KK +EV overall I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong... I've been pushing KK 100% of the time. And 90% of the time I'm thrilled to do it. But the people who have the JJ or the AK are usually the overly laggy players or shortstacks who I know will (correctly) get in with a broad range of hands.

I just think it comes up enough and in certain situations with certain players where a read should turn a push into a fold. I know that's against what this forum teaches (and I'm generally in agreement). But as we come across better players, it would seem there's room to loosen up this dogma that KK is always worth 100bb preflop.

[ADK]

pooooooooooooooo-sssssssssh

[XHitman014]

Is 150 hands really that large of a sample size that we narrow his hand down to one holding only?

I have 250-500 on some of the better players in NL50 who I know to be 2+2 & aggressive. However, their numbers don't seem as aggressive as I think they are. It could be that the 150 hands you saw he was card dead or watching tv. I'm pushing.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Is 150 hands really that large of a sample size that we narrow his hand down to one holding only?

I have 250-500 on some of the better players in NL50 who I know to be 2+2 & aggressive. However, their numbers don't seem as aggressive as I think they are. It could be that the 150 hands you saw he was card dead or watching tv. I'm pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the hand its 150 hands... But I find as a general rule that if someone is playing 75/8 after 10 rotations... they're not secretly TAG. I think 150 is enough to say "this person seems pretty tight."

Its not just his stats. Its a combination of his stats, his position, my image, the number of players in the pot, my position and his 4 bet amount.

Oddly enough, I don't know why I posted. I really didn't expect that many (if any) people to agree. Yet, I've been playing for quite a while and have never been more certain what this was.

Sure there are cases where a TAG doesn't have what you think... but I really think those are the exceptions. I think there's more room for reads here then we want to give credit and finding the exceptions to the never fold Kings PF is an improvement.

[Mr_Pathetic]

Sam Farha called out Greenstein holding AA on HSP season 1 and still called.

I never fold KK preflop. It holds up too many times even if I do suspect the villain has aces.

[hra146]

[ QUOTE ]


I never fold KK preflop. It holds up too many times even if I do suspect the villain has aces.

[/ QUOTE ]


Quality post

[fees]

never fold KK pref unless villian raises 5% or less AND (this is REALLY imporant) is passive preflop

[Hundrye]

1. Be in a 5 handed microstakes game 100BB deep
2. Have an opportunity to get it all-in PF with KK
3. ???
4. Profit

[netstorm]

if he pushes, you're still getting like 4:1 on your call, so even *if* calling an allin PF is a marginal error, this only applies if you are 100% certain he has nothing else but AA

[Bastian]

I also have the same problem. I never fold kings preflop, and ofcourse EVERYTIME they have aces.

Its so obvious too. Sometimes I wanna click fold but I think about how everyone says don't, and ofcourse, they have aces!

This seems to be something so simple everyone understands, but I just don't get it.

[Gustav]

Well, if it makes you feel better I can confess that I've folded KK preflop for ~100bb 3 whole times over the 3 years I've played, and I feel pretty good about all of them. I wouldn't fault you for going with your read in a situation like this. But I wouldn't fault you for calling either. And if he pushed instead it would be an easy call imo.

But if you just know he has exactly KK or AA, then I think going with one's read is fine, as long as you're 100% aware of how completely non-standard this is and don't start folding monsters left and right.

And since anecdotal evidence over a miniscule sample is the best and most reliable kind of evidence there is; I remember two of my folds fairly well. One was a ridiculously obvious cold overcall/4bet all-in type line (he showed AA), and the other was a very nitty player in BB making a small 3bet over an UTG raise and a caller (he had KK). If they had just pushed or played the hand straightforwardly, they would both have stacked me easily. I don't remember the third one at all anymore, except knowing that it happened. Or maybe I dreamed it, who knows.

[.xxxx.]

In this situation you're going to get your stack in regardless because villain has AK/QQ often enough that the few times you run into AA will just be variance. What line would you have taken if you were villain and held QQ?

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Be in a 5 handed microstakes game 100BB deep
2. Have an opportunity to get it all-in PF with KK
3. ???
4. Profit

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like people are missing some stuff here. I've been playing for a couple of years and started by saying I pretty much 100% do this. I've spouted this same advice on this forum. It is a rule.

I am merely suggesting that there are exceptions to the rule. (I will say for the record that I have seen medium and high stakes posts where people suggested folding KK preflop for around a buyin and the entire forum didn't laugh at the suggestion. And I realize I play $50 tables... That being said, there is a difference where 98% of the time I'm saying, "Oh Goody, I'm getting it all in preflop with pocket kings. I hope he doesn't have aces." VERSUS -- the 1 in 50 time where you say, "Wow, I feel FAIRLY confident that this particular player in this instance is heavily weighted to Aces. My read is very strong... though I usually am happy to get it all in here, I'm know I'm very likely a dog here..."

For the hand as posted... do you honestly think a decent tight player here who has some ability to put an opponent on a range of hands... plays JJ here this way? Again... I'm not talking about crazy lags battling it out... I thought my situation presented was very detailed.

Put yourselves in his shoes and tell me what YOU play the way he did.

[jmgambler]

I Post at another Forum, and was in the same situation you are now,(below is the HH I posted) with everyone saying NEVER fold KK PF.

You were at the table and "felt" it was a good fold then fine, do not beat yourself up about it....... in the same way that AA vs KK doesnt happen often enough to worry about it, You folding KK PF will not happen that often either (we hope?)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh/

Stack Sizes
SB: $25.65
BB: $27.35
Hero (UTG): $38.15
MP: $46.15
CO: $12.30
BTN: $14.80

Preflop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.35, 6 Players)
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, SB raises to $2.45, BB folds, Hero raises to $4.05, SB raises all-in to $25.65, Hero Folds.

*shrugs* I felt he had AA

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
I also have the same problem. I never fold kings preflop, and ofcourse EVERYTIME they have aces.


[/ QUOTE ]

nah they dont

you just forget all the times where you beat his ak and qq :/

[C4LL4W4Y]

Without reads your situation is entirely different from kurto's.

FWIW it takes a solid read Kurto, but you know it's no leak in your game if that's what you're going off.

[brian8065]

I fold KK preflop about once every 50,000 hands, or for me about once a month. It has to be a rare occurrence. I will only do it against a regular player that I have played over 500 hands against, but usually a lot more. That criterion is solid. 150 hands are not enough for me.

Of course they would have to be a tight player. Then it would be several other factors combined to make me believe that I am certainly beat.

About every 5,000 hands you will have KK vs. AA.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation you're going to get your stack in regardless because villain has AK/QQ often enough that the few times you run into AA will just be variance. What line would you have taken if you were villain and held QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I held QQ and I'm 3 bet by a nit who is OOP-- I'm NOT acting to pot commit myself and give my opponent a chance to push by 4 betting it to $25.

[We Major]

Heads up I probably wouldn't fold...

Multiway I may consider it as your chance of winning drop and the chances someone has A's is greater.

"KK vs. AA

After the hand I was very angry at myself since I had been tilting he was playing very passively. I stormed off to take a shower and go to bed being mad because I "knew" he had aces. So all day I thought about the hand and once I cooled off I realized my push was closer than I thought. I intuitively knew that kings were extremely strong HU. Then I asked the question how deep would I have to make folding kings correct. I went through all the math and realized you have to be exteremly deep to fold KK HU. I won't bore you with it but its not even close at 300BB. I was shocked and realized the hand was just a cooler. "

From Townsend's blog..

[Hundrye]

[ QUOTE ]

If I held QQ and I'm 3 bet by a nit who is OOP-- I'm NOT acting to pot commit myself and give my opponent a chance to push by 4 betting it to $25.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright i admit my last post was a bit too simple. But the thing here is that most 50NL players don't think like this. And I don't think playing 150 hands with someone is enough to be able to determine he's not commiting himself with QQ here(There are even a lot of FR players who get it all-in with QQ in this way). And considering the pot odds i think the percentage of the time this is done here with QQ makes this a non-fold

[.xxxx.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this situation you're going to get your stack in regardless because villain has AK/QQ often enough that the few times you run into AA will just be variance. What line would you have taken if you were villain and held QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I held QQ and I'm 3 bet by a nit who is OOP-- I'm NOT acting to pot commit myself and give my opponent a chance to push by 4 betting it to $25.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you'd just call and play your hand for set value?

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

I folded KK preflop once only to see QQ, AK, and AK get flipped up after being like 6bet preflop.

NEVER AGAIN

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
I Post at another Forum, and was in the same situation you are now,(below is the HH I posted) with everyone saying NEVER fold KK PF.

You were at the table and "felt" it was a good fold then fine, do not beat yourself up about it....... in the same way that AA vs KK doesnt happen often enough to worry about it, You folding KK PF will not happen that often either (we hope?)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh/

Stack Sizes
SB: $25.65
BB: $27.35
Hero (UTG): $38.15
MP: $46.15
CO: $12.30
BTN: $14.80

Preflop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.35, 6 Players)
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, SB raises to $2.45, BB folds, Hero raises to $4.05, SB raises all-in to $25.65, Hero Folds.

*shrugs* I felt he had AA

[/ QUOTE ]

What's with the minraise? Do they do that at the "other forum"?

[ciki57]

[ QUOTE ]

About every 5,000 hands you will have KK vs. AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess im running super bad. Run into AA with KK 7 times this month (about 10K hands.)

But I still don't fold them preflop... for now... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Lordy]

Meh. 4-bets seem to be exactly KK+ a vast majority of the time.
I still haven't folded KK pre-flop ever, but I don't think I've seen a sane player 4-bet less than KK, without history.
4-bet shoves are different, I see AK much more frequently than AA/KK in these situations.
This is all with 100+ bb stacks obviously.

[AnyMouse]

even in the case that you were good enough to eek out some marginal EV folding KK pre, aren't there many greater EV things you could spend this time thinking about??

[ciki57]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. 4-bets seem to be exactly KK+ a vast majority of the time.
I still haven't folded KK pre-flop ever, but I don't think I've seen a sane player 4-bet less than KK, without history.
4-bet shoves are different, I see AK much more frequently than AA/KK in these situations.
This is all with 100+ bb stacks obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you hold one KK then villain's 4-bet is much more likely to be AA than KK.

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this situation you're going to get your stack in regardless because villain has AK/QQ often enough that the few times you run into AA will just be variance. What line would you have taken if you were villain and held QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I held QQ and I'm 3 bet by a nit who is OOP-- I'm NOT acting to pot commit myself and give my opponent a chance to push by 4 betting it to $25.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if you have AK and think your nitty opponent can lay down JJ/QQ?

[CPHoya]

[ QUOTE ]
even in the case that you were good enough to eek out some marginal EV folding KK pre, aren't there many greater EV things you could spend this time thinking about??

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't seem particularly fair to OP, since we all know he's not agonizing over this night and day at the expense of th rest of his game. You're right with regard to the reward for the fold though.

I've folded KK twice, I think, over years of play. I don't think I would do it anymore unless I was really deep or I had one of those weird sixth-sense-ninja-certainty things Kurto is talking about. But even where we do have that weird sense, we take the pot occasionally anyway. We could do the math if we really want, but I'm sure that has happened elsewhere.

There's something to be said for "knowing" what is happening and getting away from it - some plays are "-EV" but correct when your read overwhelms it (fundamental theorem of poker - it's like you saw his cards and he saw yours). I don't think folding or shoving is wrong. I really don't.

Calling would be lol though.