Simple concept...i lose $$ everytime i dont follow it

[.KeviN.]

To make it short n sweet here it is. Ill call it the "shmack theorem" because I know it by heart, but always manage to come up with excuses not to follow it at certain times. And it only applies to small/micro stakes....

Shmack Theorem = when facing a bet by your opponent on the river in pots that are 4PTBBs or over...a pot sized bet on the river is almost ALWAYS (95% of the time) a very solid hand. Unless you have a ridiculous read on ur opponent, trust me on this. I wanna put it on a post tit and stick it to my screen. SO many times I refused to listen to it because the betting just didnt make any sense, and would make calls even with solid hands like TPTK just to lose the pot and say to myself "I shulda listened". Next time you sit down, pay close attention to the players and pot size bets on the river in these smallish medium-big pots. Lemme know if Im right...

[Bramsterdam]

You are totally right. When playing my A game I fold these TPTK kind of hands without a hesitation, but when I'm tired/drunk/tilting I call riverbet just to see what beats me...

... it will cost you tons of $$$ and is a killer for your winrate. Good to hear you're not the only one suffering this problem huh?

[C4LL4W4Y]

This isn't always true...many villains only know how to bet pot, and inducing a bluff on the river from these types of opponents can be very profitable.

But in general you should be able to tell when you're getting value bet.

[Quester]

I really don't like over-generalizations like this. You should be estimating the probability that your opponent is bluffing and including that in the range of hands you think he has. Then you should call or fold according to the odds you are getting on his entire range.

Sometimes you'll see all sorts of ridiculous things betting at you:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($10.95)
BB ($5.85)
UTG ($16.50)
Hero ($17.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $0.2</font>, Hero calls $0.20.

Turn: ($1.55) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $0.6</font>, Hero calls $0.60.

River: ($2.75) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.6</font>, UTG calls $2.80.

Final Pot: $13.95

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Qh 4h (two pair, queens and sixes).
Hero has Qc Ad (two pair, queens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins $13.95. </font>

[.xxxx.]

what's your ftp sn?

[TheRenaissance]

Hm. I dont really agree with this theorem.
But then I am the master of bluff induction.
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Supwithbates]

questor that hand is horribly played raise flop raise turn etc

[shyturtle27]

what's a post tit ?

[Chomp]

OP, I know exactly where you are coming from here, and I came up with a similar theorem some months ago along the lines of "it is almost always wrong to call large river overbets on the river without the nuts".

But I now think this is wrong.

Lots and lots of villains will toss in huge bets on the river with trash. The vital point I was missing before is that valiant heros should always (or 90%+) of the time sense that this is the case given the action in the hand to that point.

Similarly, valiant heros should know when it's the goods from the action in the hand.

When I abandoned my catch-all theorem, and instead concentrated on working out whether this particular, specific overbet is a real hand or bs, my river decisions in these spots definitely improved.

Basically I am saying you always know what the bet means, even if you don't seem to consciously realised it at the time.

Finally, I actually think this is an issue about hand-reading. I find I get these decisions wrong when I haven't been thinking about villain's range as much as I am thinking about my hand.

[shyturtle27]

This really depends more on villian's river agression. I have found villians that will even push with anything because they see your check into them as weak. I've stacked opponents a lot with this read. While in many (maybe most) cases a river overbet or pot bet would mean strenght, the theorum is toooooo general. I put more emphasis on bet timing and agression numbers in these spots than the fact he bet pot.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
questor that hand is horribly played raise flop raise turn etc

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm familiar with the standard play. I was passive here for a reason (and my minraise on the river = expert. haha).

[.KeviN.]

1st off..the only games I've played are 25-200NL so I dont know if this applies to games lower that 25 (im guessing not as much because these bets have less real money value). 2nd of all I know its not all cut and dry. But when you're trying to determine villian's range (and this is for avg players, if you have reads go with them), if he's betting the pot on the river in a med-big pot u can really narrow down his range.

In my original post I said like 95% he has a good hand, bold statement n I stand by it. In other words, the chances he's bluffing are very slim and his bet means he THINKS he has a big hand. I'm also not talking about overbets or pushes like some of you included in your responses.

Just watch your next session and when 1 of these pots pop up on the river watch the differences between pot size bets and 1/2-2/3 sized bets.

P.S. I guess its Post-its? Sorry its spring time an I cant keep my eyes off all the tank tops.

[PJo336]

I agree with shmack...ur all hatin cuz he came out and took the name for the therom...dead on tho

[ADK]

dont agree with this theory at all, certainly not on NL50 games and plus.

Unless your playing on a poker site where every player has the exact same playing style.. then maybe your theory would apply.

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Hm. I dont really agree with this theorem.
But then I am the master of bluff induction.
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd give you a run for your money... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[sightless]

This really really depends on the villain

[.KeviN.]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like over-generalizations like this. You should be estimating the probability that your opponent is bluffing and including that in the range of hands you think he has. Then you should call or fold according to the odds you are getting on his entire range.

Sometimes you'll see all sorts of ridiculous things betting at you:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($10.95)
BB ($5.85)
UTG ($16.50)
Hero ($17.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $0.2</font>, Hero calls $0.20.

Turn: ($1.55) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $0.6</font>, Hero calls $0.60.

River: ($2.75) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.6</font>, UTG calls $2.80.

Final Pot: $13.95

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Qh 4h (two pair, queens and sixes).
Hero has Qc Ad (two pair, queens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins $13.95. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

1st of all this is a bad hand/example. 2nd of all when this guy bet pot on the river he probably THOUGHT he had a good hand and didnt know it was counterfeited.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
1st of all this is a bad hand/example. 2nd of all when this guy bet pot on the river he probably THOUGHT he had a good hand and didnt know it was counterfeited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it a bad example? It meets the criteria you specify. Pot greater than 4PTBB, PSB by opponent on the river. My play here is certainly not orthodox, but that is irrelevant for the discussion at hand.

[shyturtle27]

[ QUOTE ]
This really really depends on the villain

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my point. It's TOTALLY player dependent.

[.KeviN.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1st of all this is a bad hand/example. 2nd of all when this guy bet pot on the river he probably THOUGHT he had a good hand and didnt know it was counterfeited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it a bad example? It meets the criteria you specify. Pot greater than 4PTBB, PSB by opponent on the river. My play here is certainly not orthodox, but that is irrelevant for the discussion at hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because 1) its $10 NL and 2)he thought he had a better hand than he did

[Lordy]

Uh, I've checked rivers with a PSB left, only to let villain bluff-shove his missed draw.

I agree that it generally applies to unknowns and especially passive guys though.

[matrix]

depends on the villain.

and this thread is going nowhere.