$25: Low PP vs active opponent

[NL Newbie]

Villans been raising a fair bit, seems to be positionally aware.

Havent seen him showdown any junk, but he's Cbet and chk/folded turn a few times.

Hes around 24/18/2.5 but only got 90 hands


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($25.45)</font>
CO ($9.45)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($23.50)</font>
SB ($30.25)
BB ($27.25)
UTG ($4)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villan raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.35) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villan bets $1.8</font>, <font color="blue">Hero calls $1.80.</font>

Turn: ($5.95) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villan bets $4</font>, <font color="blue">Hero calls $4.</font>

River: ($13.95) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villan bets $10</font>, <font color="blue"> Hero calls </font>

Good? bad? Discuss

[Jim14Qc]

i don't lkike the river call, tbh. I don't see him betting that river w/o at least JJ, probably somethink like AK/KQ is more likely though, unless he's been 3-barrelling a lot (which noone does at NL25 for sure).

A call on the turn seems alright.

[Sweir]

I would call the flop/turn and then fold the river. You say that he has been cbetting and then c/f'ing the turn quite a bit which indicates that he probably isn't 3rd barreling you. There aren't really any draws out there that he could have, so I can't see him playing a hand worse than 4s like this. AK/KQ or something seems pretty likely.


Btw I thought you played SSNL??

[NHBuddy]

The only thing you beat is a bluff on the river. By playing it this way, you let him be in the control for the entire hard(catch overcards with no resistance), and you have absolutely no idea where you stand.

IF you're just going to call down like this it would be much better to raise the flop, and go from there.

[juggler97531]

"but he's Cbet and chk/folded turn a few times. "
given this read i don't like your line. It means that he tries cbets, but shuts up if it doesn't work. If it is true than his bet/bet/bet suggest that your pair of 4s is never good here.
I think you have to fold here.

[doppelganger]

You're only good on the river if he'll 3 barrel it with a whiffed AQ/A6. Given his stats and your read, I'm thinking not.

[barryc83]

Im folding the river. Hes taking you to valuetown. I like the turn call bc you have 10 outs and thats a good double barrel card, but I just dont see many 3 barreling at 50nl.

[Rafpig]

River call is very bad IMO. Your line looks fine, but fold the river. Other option is to raise the flop, taking control of the hand. I would guess he had AK...

[Sweir]

Just a quick thought:

Assuming you have 8 outs on the turn (4 6s, 4 As, i've ignored the 4s). You are 8 : 38 or 1 : 4.75 to make your hand.

You have to call $4 so you need to win $19 in total to make this 0EV. There is already $9.95 in the pot so you need to win $10 on the river.

Do you think that villain will pay you off that much on average when there is 4 to a straight on the board? You having a 4 is fairly unlikely but its just something to consider when deciding whether to call the turn.

[NL Newbie]

Jim140c
Do you think villan should bet river if he has JJ, if so why and if not why not.
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Sweir Yeah i played NL$100, cashed out so quickly running up the stakes to get home to the NL$100 and $200 games.
/images/graemlins/blush.gif

NHBuddy - What does raising the flop achieve?

[NL Newbie]

Two questions.


If villan has AK, should he bet river - If so why, if not why not?


What does raising this flop achieve?

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
Im folding the river. Hes taking you to valuetown. I like the turn call bc you have 10 outs and thats a good double barrel card, but I just dont see many 3 barreling at 25nl.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

IMO 10 outs is pretty optimistic. And it is VERY unlikely that you will get paid off on the river by a worse hand if a 4 hits.

Also do you think many 25NL players think about good/bad 2nd barrel cards?

[juggler97531]

i like raising the flop(but will be happy to hear better reasons) because
- this way we won't have any more difficult decisions in the hand(just fold to any bet/rise from Villain)
- if ahead we won't let overcards(which there are about trizilion against our 44) to catch something later in hand

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]

If villan has AK, should he bet river - If so why, if not why not?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes if you are going to call him here with 4s.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im folding the river. Hes taking you to valuetown. I like the turn call bc you have 10 outs and thats a good double barrel card, but I just dont see many 3 barreling at 25nl.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

IMO 10 outs is pretty optimistic. And it is VERY unlikely that you will get paid off on the river by a worse hand if a 4 hits.

Also do you think many 25NL players think about good/bad 2nd barrel cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah against a complete unknown I have no problem just folding the turn. But OP makes the villain seem competent, maybe Im giving him too much credit. If I was playing 50nl and was hero against a decent reg (also a nonnit reg), Id call the turn. The river is a fold though.

2 4s + 4 As + 4 6s = 10 outs

[NHBuddy]

The flop acomplishes a couple things, and there are a few advantages and disadantages of raising the flop but here are my thoughts.

By raising the flop.
1. You take control of the hand, making it easier to play it on later streets.
2. You fold out hands that you are ahead of(overcards), which is actually not such a bad thing in this case; or get calls from them which isn't that bad either.
3. There are of course disadvantages, you may not be able to cheaply(relatively) draw to your straight, but at the same time you will know exactly where you stand, for example he re-raises all in. Drawing has advantages but how likely is it that you will get paid off a significant amount if a 6 falls on river.
4. Your hand becomes somewhat more deceptive.

[NHBuddy]

One more thing to add, my analysis is based on the way you played your hand, and the fact that you were willing to call a river bet like the way it was played out.

If you think about villan's hand range, I'm saying that raising the flop and going from there is better than calling down river when relatively safe cards fall.

[NL Newbie]

You raise the flop, whats the plan for Turn/River?

You all fold 44 on river, yet some of you believe betting AK on river is ok?

Villan is a good player, he knows your reasonable. Do you think he thinks you'll call with 88? TT? 44? Sets? if he bets the river.

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing to add, my analysis is based on the way you played your hand, and the fact that you were willing to call a river bet like the way it was played out.

If you think about villan's hand range, I'm saying that raising the flop and going from there is better than calling down river when relatively safe cards fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, dont base your play on what has happened in this hand. Base your play on what maximises EV in all situations.

Just because i called river doesnt mean its good or bad, infact did i call the river? Did i make this hand up? Am i villan? Am i hero? Was this NL$200? Who knows /images/graemlins/blush.gif


The point of this post is possibly throw ideas into your heads and get you maximising the EV of your decisions.

DO NOT BASE DECISIONS ON WHAT OCCURED, BASE THEM ON WHAT MAXIMISES EV.


You raise the flop, Villan calls, WHats the turn/River plan?

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]

You all fold 44 on river, yet some of you believe betting AK on river is ok?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/c'ing the river with AK is best. There is a small chance that you will get called by 66-99. TT+ will 3bet pf and 99 could also 3bet pf. It is possible that you could be floating here with KQ as you have seen villain give up on his cbets on the turn, and then you hit a K and decided to call instead. So apart from an unlikely KQ (which should probably fold the river anyway) and 66-99 (which will generally also fold) I think that betting AK on the river only get called by better hands. However if you c/c you may well induce a bluff from a hand that would have folded if you had bet.

[NHBuddy]

1. He checks turn, you bet turn.

For this hand the turn was a K, so this probably folds out all the likes of AJ, AQ, etc etc. Also the K could be a scare card for the guy, forcing him to fold a few hands that are ahead of your hand.

2. He checks, you check.

If you think the turn card helped him/he's strong, or just want a free card you check behind and try to make your hand. On the river you are now faced with the same decision as you would have by just calling flop and turn(the money you've put in the pot will be about the same), so you can basically make the same decision you did in your hand with a little bit more info. The advantage is that you've forced him to a decision(on flop) one more time than you would have by just calling down.



But in reality we don't know that the turn will be K and I think raising the flop is favorable also because of this reason. (i.e. A on turn, etc)


Edit: IF villan bets out check/raises, will have to evaluate turn card, odds and play accordingly.

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]

You raise the flop, Villan calls, WHats the turn/River plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I wouldn't normally raise this flop against this villain but if I did and got called:

If the turn blanks and he checks I would check behind. If he bets I would call if I thought I was getting odds to draw but fold if he bet big. Then if the river blanks again I would c/f.

Overall though I don't like raising the flop here because I think that it is fairly easy to play this hand against this villain IP. If he checks the turn after we call his cbet then we will be able to take it away from him a large % of the time. If he bets the turn then we will know he has a decent hand and will be able to decide whether we have odds to draw or whatever.

[NHBuddy]

For what it's worth though not many villans in 25nl are check raising, or donking turn after flat calling flop unless turn greatly improved them, or they started a monster to begin with.

[monkeymaps]

I think raising flop pretty much just buys you a free card on the turn if villian calls.

It think calling is more +ev because we have a decent draw and position if we raise flop we stand a chance of getting bet off our draw. Plus we have position and our read is that villian shuts down on turn sometimes so we have a good chance of just picking up the pot on the turn.

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You all fold 44 on river, yet some of you believe betting AK on river is ok?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/c'ing the river with AK is best. There is a small chance that you will get called by 66-99. TT+ will 3bet pf and 99 could also 3bet pf. It is possible that you could be floating here with KQ as you have seen villain give up on his cbets on the turn, and then you hit a K and decided to call instead. So apart from an unlikely KQ (which should probably fold the river anyway) and 66-99 (which will generally also fold) I think that betting AK on the river only get called by better hands. However if you c/c you may well induce a bluff from a hand that would have folded if you had bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

CHA CHING! Hence checking here vs a good opponent is good.
Not all the time, image/history/tilt/other factors everywhere to consider - but here, the draw missed... what do you honestly think hero is goign to call us with???




Raising vs this fairly agressive player isnt wrong, neither is calling IMO. A few merits of either:

Raising: Free card, Fold out better hands(77), Protect from OC's, Find out where you are(But you lose cash when reraised).

Calling: Induced bluffs from AK etc, Can bluff yourself once he gives up to protect your hand/steal pot.


Results are in white below...
<font color="white">I was villan, i had QJ and tripple barreled, yeh it was NL$25. Flop is easy cbet, turn is perfect card to represent. On the river i figure villan to have 44 or a small overpair, both of which are close to impossible to call. IF i had AK, i'd of checked and called a bet.


Did i play it perfectly or did villan? IMO villan should fold river and his flop play is close to raise or call - Personally vs such a aggro guy like me, i like calling... Then again since i raise T9, when the 9 hits will he still call me down /images/graemlins/smile.gif? Probably, $$$ for me. </font>

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]


Results are in white below...
<font color="white">I was villan, i had QJ and tripple barreled, yeh it was NL$25. Flop is easy cbet, turn is perfect card to represent. On the river i figure villan to have 44 or a small overpair, both of which are close to impossible to call. IF i had AK, i'd of checked and called a bet.


Did i play it perfectly or did villan? IMO villan should fold river and his flop play is close to raise or call - Personally vs such a aggro guy like me, i like calling... Then again since i raise T9, when the 9 hits will he still call me down /images/graemlins/smile.gif? Probably, $$$ for me. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

NH.

Do you think he called the river because he thought out the hand like you did or is just a CS?

FWIW I don't mind a river call here that much with 44 if villain is a decent reg that I play with a lot, as it is good for metagame.

[Cadence Lauren]

I was iffy about calling the turn, and I like this analysis to explain my gut feeling a bit. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I really don't think the implied odds support a turn call given that when you make your hand, the board is going to look fairly coordinated.

[Isura]

Fold on the turn. But I would have raised the flop.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop acomplishes a couple things, and there are a few advantages and disadantages of raising the flop but here are my thoughts.

By raising the flop.
1. You take control of the hand, making it easier to play it on later streets.
2. You fold out hands that you are ahead of(overcards), which is actually not such a bad thing in this case; or get calls from them which isn't that bad either.
3. There are of course disadvantages, you may not be able to cheaply(relatively) draw to your straight, but at the same time you will know exactly where you stand, for example he re-raises all in. Drawing has advantages but how likely is it that you will get paid off a significant amount if a 6 falls on river.
4. Your hand becomes somewhat more deceptive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising also puts pressure on 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ and some nits may fold QQ because you obviously have a set on this board. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Results are in white below...
<font color="white">I was villan, i had QJ and tripple barreled, yeh it was NL$25. Flop is easy cbet, turn is perfect card to represent. On the river i figure villan to have 44 or a small overpair, both of which are close to impossible to call. IF i had AK, i'd of checked and called a bet.


Did i play it perfectly or did villan? IMO villan should fold river and his flop play is close to raise or call - Personally vs such a aggro guy like me, i like calling... Then again since i raise T9, when the 9 hits will he still call me down /images/graemlins/smile.gif? Probably, $$$ for me. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

NH.

Do you think he called the river because he thought out the hand like you did or is just a CS?

FWIW I don't mind a river call here that much with 44 if villain is a decent reg that I play with a lot, as it is good for metagame.

[/ QUOTE ]


Calling station, stacked him twice after this hand lol

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You all fold 44 on river, yet some of you believe betting AK on river is ok?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/c'ing the river with AK is best. There is a small chance that you will get called by 66-99. TT+ will 3bet pf and 99 could also 3bet pf. It is possible that you could be floating here with KQ as you have seen villain give up on his cbets on the turn, and then you hit a K and decided to call instead. So apart from an unlikely KQ (which should probably fold the river anyway) and 66-99 (which will generally also fold) I think that betting AK on the river only get called by better hands. However if you c/c you may well induce a bluff from a hand that would have folded if you had bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

CHA CHING! Hence checking here vs a good opponent is good.
Not all the time, image/history/tilt/other factors everywhere to consider - but here, the draw missed... what do you honestly think hero is goign to call us with???




Raising vs this fairly agressive player isnt wrong, neither is calling IMO. A few merits of either:

Raising: Free card, Fold out better hands(77), Protect from OC's, Find out where you are(But you lose cash when reraised).

Calling: Induced bluffs from AK etc, Can bluff yourself once he gives up to protect your hand/steal pot.


Results are in white below...
<font color="white">I was villan, i had QJ and tripple barreled, yeh it was NL$25. Flop is easy cbet, turn is perfect card to represent. On the river i figure villan to have 44 or a small overpair, both of which are close to impossible to call. IF i had AK, i'd of checked and called a bet.


Did i play it perfectly or did villan? IMO villan should fold river and his flop play is close to raise or call - Personally vs such a aggro guy like me, i like calling... Then again since i raise T9, when the 9 hits will he still call me down /images/graemlins/smile.gif? Probably, $$$ for me. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have bet AK on the river and let villain decide what he wants to call me with. I'm surprised you say you would check/call. Betting and folding to a raise seems way better and really punishes villains who call with hands like 44 thinking we can only have the nuts or nothing at all.

Edit: As to the original post from villain's POV, I can certainly see the value in calling the river with 44 if you're not betting hands like JJ/QQ/AA or AK/KQ on the river, but I'm not good at math so I don't know how close it is.

[catfish_01]

Because of the twist in your OP, I'm not very clear on Hero's (your opponent) stats or reads during this, but I am going to observe that you're pretty tenacious about pointing out that a good thought process is &gt; results.

Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

I think that this applies if you're being very active or even if you're playing tight and haven't been seen going too far. The average opponent will probably decide on the flop if he will see the hand down against someone who's been very active at the table, and if they call a turn bet when the overcard comes, you're probably not folding them on the river. It's hard to give an unknown or avg opponent credit for thinking beyond that level. And if you're being tight and they're still in the hand with you, well, even more so they've probably connected because they expect you to have a hand as well.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
Because of the twist in your OP, I'm not very clear on Hero's (your opponent) stats or reads during this, but I am going to observe that you're pretty tenacious about pointing out that a good thought process is &gt; results.

Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think NL Newbie is saying triple barreling with Queen high is generally good at 25NL. He's posting an interesting hand for discussion that will help us think in terms of maximizing EV. Whether his triple barrel was a good idea or not is not really relevant to the discussion.

[catfish_01]

That's what the post became, a thought about maximizing e.v., but it originally looked like a question about calling down vs. an active villian.

My obs. on the OP's line is as relevant as the opponent's line because if you know you're against a villian who can triple barrel with air, it makes more sense to play the hand passively.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
That's what the post became, a thought about maximizing e.v., but it originally looked like a question about calling down vs. an active villian.

My obs. on the OP's line is as relevant as the opponent's line because if you know you're against a villian who can triple barrel with air, it makes more sense to play the hand passively.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was what I was addressing. No big deal, but you're not saying this as part of your analysis of the hand. You're saying it to call out OP for making a likely -EV play while preaching to us to think in terms of maximizing EV.

[NL Newbie]

CatFish - If your against an opponent who is aggro, calling down is certainly better than raising flop(Think i covered that in an earlier post, but not sure). However its also very difficult, thats why timed aggression is just....godly. Did that 9 on the turn help him? Oh crap what about this 2 on the river thats paired the board? Tough spots = what we always try to create of course.

In terms of 3barreling an opponent at NL$25 - As with most generalisations, its not a good thing to go by as such. However when 3barrelling, you've certainly got to pick your places carefully.

Also i believe he folds that river alot of the time, he hesistated for along time before calling. I was also confident in my read and had no other way to win, i had to bet or give up. Weakness by opponent + No showdown value = Good bet IMO.

So interms of EV, hmm its debateable.
If i played the hand against him again with AK, its obviously going to be a bet on the river.... But what good is hindsight /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

If im vs a good 2p2er, it's a check/call.

One thing i do notice in the micro forum is alot of results orientated play, we all do it. Try focus on good play as soon as you can, try ignore the results to your best of your ability. If you do not, at NL$200 when you lose $1000 in a day you'll be a total wreck and it will be massively -EV even if you do not tilt.