10NL low boat simple?

[chanchuan]

Villain is 33/15 over 120, quite passive.
How's this line? Is this a simple "set=nuts-so-bet-bet-bet" case? His smooth-calls seem dangerous, or do I see monsters under the bed?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/))

SB: $12.75
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $11.70</font>
UTG: $18.45
MP: $5.45
CO: $9.95
BTN: $9.80

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.30</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20
Uncalled bet of $0 returned to Hero

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.95) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Khttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, UTG calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($3.20) 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.35</font>, UTG calls $2.35, BTN folds

<font color="black">River:</font> ($7.90) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.20</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $10.40</font>, Hero calls all-in for $3.10
Uncalled bet of $2.10 returned to UTG

Pot Size: $24.50 ($2 Rake)

[Fiksdal]

I pot the flop, and open push the river. Other than that, fine.

[Bramsterdam]

Yeah, this is a "set=nuts-so-bet-bet-bet" case.

K7/J7/76 are highly unlikely and those are the only combinations that have you beat.

[tehDiceman]

i think i bet more on the turn, maybe 2.50 or 2.60. river seems alright, maybe make it 5.50. i call UTG push. he could have 7J, but i dont think villian is raising 7J, especially from UTG. he could have a missed flush draw but it seems like a strange line to take bye pushing to your bets on all three streets. he could have KQ+. kind of tough but i dont think i could let it go, especially for the minimal amount you have to call on the river to see showdown.


[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is a "set=nuts-so-bet-bet-bet" case.

K7/J7/76 are highly unlikely and those are the only combinations that have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
you forget KK and JJ which could be a possibility since he raised PF OOP.

[rivhawk02]

Only hand I see beating me that is willing to see the river and could have raised UTG is KK. He could be married to AA or possibly QQ or AK. If he has KK so be it.

[jmgambler]

standard

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
K7/J7/76 are highly unlikely and those are the only combinations that have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK and 77 have him beat also.

[ QUOTE ]
Only hand I see beating me that is willing to see the river and could have raised UTG is KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget 77.

That having been said, you should still be getting it all in here. A passive player with TPGK is calling it down.

[Supwithbates]

why are you even worrying about anything that beats you? It's 10NL, you have a boat on a board that isn't showing 3 of a kind or 2pair, so get it in. I never fold a boat on a one pair board at these stakes, and I do my damnedest to get myself all in.

[ocdscale]

Let me preface with saying that there is no way you can fold for $3.1 more. You only have to be ahead ~15% of the time, easy call.
I think you see something like A/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif a lot and hands like that, 87s, 76s, etc. K7, J7 (Even suited) are really unlikely considering his PFR. This could be KJ though.
KK/JJ are obviously possibilities, but JJ is discounted, although I can see someone at 10NL calling down with it.

I don't think anyone does this with just TP, Hero has shown a lot of strength on all streets, I think TP (including AA) just calls river.

If you were deeper stacked, I think this would still be a call, but I'd feel sick to my stomach.

[orange]

so std.