$10nl Stars Pocket AA's - How's my shove?

[whiteflash]

Probably pretty standard but would like someone to comment.

Played about 25 hands with villian. He has called several raises OOP with marginal hands.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Hero ($10.75)
BB ($13.65)
UTG ($2.80)
MP ($17.25)
CO ($18.75)
Button ($14.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, BB calls $0.65, UTG folds, CO folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($1.80) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($21.80) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($21.80) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $21.80

[PJo336]

Me like...micro= pooooosshhhh, althought expect K10

[Jer672]

[ QUOTE ]
Me like...micro= pooooosshhhh, althought expect K10

[/ QUOTE ]

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Me like...micro= pooooosshhhh, althought expect K10

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite grasp this advice. You're telling him to get it all in even though he is probably behind? What plays like this that we beat?

[Ikaika]

We're ahead of AK(which villain probably 3-bets preflop), KQ, and QT...KJ, KT, and JT are all very strong possibilities here. This is gross, I'd be tempted to just call his reraise and reevaluate turn(for lack of any other ideas).

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
We're ahead of AK(which villain probably 3-bets preflop), KQ, and QT...KJ, KT, and JT are all very strong possibilities here. This is gross, I'd be tempted to just call his reraise and reevaluate turn(for lack of any other ideas).

[/ QUOTE ]

This range on the stove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

56,430 games 0.005 secs 11,286,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Kh Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.933% 54.73% 01.21% 30883 680.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 44.067% 42.86% 01.21% 24187 680.00 { AKs, KTs+, QTs, JTs, AKo, KTo+, QTo, JTo }


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[PJo336]

Id most expect a pair with a Q, which is why Id want to get it in now...2 pair at least there is a redraw to beat it, though yes you wouldnt wanna have to redraw..but I think were ahead alot here considering OP said he had been playing marginal hands. KQ IMO?

[Ikaika]

Seeing that we have 55% equity and are getting better than 3:1 on our shove, you made the right play. Thanks for stoving that, I was at work.

[We Major]

I'd put AQ and AJ in his range too.

Also, JJ and TT maybe.

[NL Newbie]

Can we have more of a read please, post all the info you have. Not "Hes called marginal hands" what hand? is A7 margina? K9? KQo? what?

If you wanna get it all in, call and shove the turn.

If you dont, fold.

It depends on wtf this guy is cold calling with.

KK/QQ/AK should reraise, but if hes cold calling he may be a big passive wuss.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put AQ and AJ in his range too.

Also, JJ and TT maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

This brings it slightly closer:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

88,110 games 0.005 secs 17,622,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Kh Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.018% 51.02% 02.00% 44953 1761.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 46.982% 44.98% 02.00% 39634 1761.50 { JJ-TT, AJs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[NL Newbie]

Think what happens to villans equity when 2 hits on the turn and he holds KQ.


Then think what do you after betting the flop with your KQ and getting called, turn is a 2.

[whiteflash]

[ QUOTE ]
Can we have more of a read please, post all the info you have. Not "Hes called marginal hands" what hand? is A7 margina? K9? KQo? what?

If you wanna get it all in, call and shove the turn.

If you dont, fold.

It depends on wtf this guy is cold calling with.

KK/QQ/AK should reraise, but if hes cold calling he may be a big passive wuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are some of the hand holdings of the villian.
ATs,K8,K8,65,Q7 couple on the button others OOP

[jmgambler]

Ugh, thing is though I may play it this way too you are beaten sooo often by KT/KJ/AQ/Q9/TT/JJ

Even If I just call the flop bet, the turn is goona want to make me push

[Sean Fraley]

The only hands we are beat are top pair or a bluff. It all comes down to how aggressive villain has been.

Scenario 1:
Villain has either shown a willingness to stack of with top pair or a straight draw, or has been so aggressive that a bluff/semi-bluff is too likely for us to fold. In this case a flop shove is pretty much mandatory. This will likely stack the villains who will lose it all with TP or a draw. Against a player who is likely to be making a bluff/semi-bluff we might be inclined to take a stack-a-donk line to get some more value on the turn but this will quite likely give a free river card to someone on a draw, therefore the reason for shoving the flop.

Scenario 2:
Villain is very passive or has been seen to play cautiously with TPTK. In this case we have no reason to believe we are ahead. In addition we are only drawing to at best six outs, and some of these may already either be held by villain, or result in a split pot where the rake actually causes us to lose money. In this case we need to fold it.