50nl - Tough river spot against a tag

[wildzer0]

MP is 12/10/3 over 70 hands, no notes on him. UTG is 83/4/1.2 over 20 hands, also no notes. After MP calls my flop bet, I decide to play this hand for pot control, but I'm afraid I may have induced a bluff if villain is paying attention to past history. Input on all streets greatly appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($29.25)
Button ($87.65)
SB ($60)
Hero ($55.15)
UTG ($19.90)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, UTG calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Turn: ($6.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $4.

River: ($14.25) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $22</font>

[PJo336]

Some people are going to tell you to raise preflop, but I like the check.

A) If hes a smart TAG he could be bluffing at this scare card
B) He could have actually hit this scare card
C) Fold to raise, pick a better battle. If you wanted to control the pot you could have checked turn or river. This is why I hate these hands OOP.

I like the bet on the flop to somewhat know where you stand, but after that its hard to define anything. Overall I agree with all streets except the river because that bet looks weak. I prob would have c/c or c/f depending on my read

[HBomb]

Check/call river to keep pot small with just top pair good kicker... this isn't a spot I think you don't want to get crazy with..

[Ikaika]

OP and PJo, why check preflop?

[Leviathan101]

he's saying he's willing to go broke in a limped pot and you have TPGK. It's just a bluff catcher. Fold this here, I expect to see him flip over 33 a lot here. Oh, and if you're going for pot control c/c turn and 1/2 pot bet on river with a fold to a raise

I raise this preflop for value

[dimeetrees]

I raise preflop 95% of the time here. Standard bet on the flop. Bet more closer to the size of the pot on the turn. Half-pot bet on the river...

I would probably fold to the raise on the river though, I cant see what you can beat that hes raising with...

[ QUOTE ]
MP is 12/10/3 over 70 hands, no notes on him. UTG is 83/4/1.2 over 20 hands, also no notes. After MP calls my flop bet, I decide to play this hand for pot control, but I'm afraid I may have induced a bluff if villain is paying attention to past history. Input on all streets greatly appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($29.25)
Button ($87.65)
SB ($60)
Hero ($55.15)
UTG ($19.90)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, UTG calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Turn: ($6.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $4.

River: ($14.25) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $22</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[PJo336]

My post flop game sucks OOP, your good enuff to handle a situation like this with a built pot, feel free to raise pre. I cant cuz I suck, therefore, I check

[dimeetrees]

I think checking is way too weak and you are going to be losing a lot of value with AQo. More importantly, you are letting in players with marginal hands, so you are even making it harder on yourself. Raise to thin the field, if you have been playing tight like you look like, then some of the players might give u respect and fold to a good raise.

[Leviathan101]

By checking preflop you make this hand even harder postflop.
Raise makes the hand play out more pure. You raise preflop get called and bet the ace on the flop. He gives you heavy action and you fold. Most of the time you'll win a small to medium pot on the flop or turn.

[spacetime]

The PF action here is interesting. Against just UTG we should obviously be raising as we are way ahead of his range. I still think we are beating MP range here as 70 hands is a pretty small sample, he most likely limps 88+ here, maybe even lower. By not raising PF, you are understating your hand strength and essentially giving up on any nonace flop (unless Q high). Raise PF and cbet on the flop.

Easy fold on river, I am wondering if your $7 is a vbet or a blocking bet? I thinking checking on the river isnt that bad of an idea because:

a) he is raising the $7 with any 7.
b) if he is decent, he is raising the weak bet with any ace as you are showing weakness

So assuming he is a decent player, he is going to be raising that bet with any of his holdings here, considering he called 2 bets. I opt to c/c on this river.

I am probably giving too much credit to villain here, as that is probably my #1 problem... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[wildzer0]

[ QUOTE ]
OP and PJo, why check preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise this sometimes, check it more often. How does your preflop strategy change here with more or less limpers?

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OP and PJo, why check preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise this sometimes, check it more often. How does your preflop strategy change here with more or less limpers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, how are you better off raising the pot and having them both call. I play 25NL and once someone limps they rarely fold to a pot bet. All you are doing is building a bigger pot. Wouldnt checking pre, then betting out OOP show strength? Or is that too far ahead of micro play?

[wildzer0]

[ QUOTE ]

I am wondering if your $7 is a vbet or a blocking bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about this hand, the more I like a c/c or c/f. But I think your statement is the crux of my problem. It's basically a useless blocking bet, because most hands that are beating us at this point are absolutely crushing us, and he should know that.

[Chomp]

IMO, because there has been no pfr, hero gets stuck trying to do 3 things:

1. building a 1-pair pot
2. but not bloating said pot
3. all while worrying that he's being bluffed by a totally undefined hand

As played this is a tough decision, but FWIW, I think this is Dan Bitel Theorem on river (sizeable river raise is never a bluff, if memory serves).

I don't like to narrow a villains range all the way down to 1 hand, but the only thing that makes sense is A7s here.

[PJo336]

33 makes sense too IMO

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
33 makes sense too IMO

[/ QUOTE ]


Surely a villain with postflop aggro of 3 is raising 33 earlier?

[wildzer0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
33 makes sense too IMO

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Surely a villain with postflop aggro of 3 is raising 33 earlier?

[/ QUOTE ]

I called, villain had 33

[PJo336]

mark it...I still wanna hear some discussion about the pros and cons of raising pre OOP

[tarheeljks]

he didn't need to, prior to the river we were doing his work for him.

[spacetime]

Raising Pf occurs only when you are in the blinds, unless someone has posted OOP.

Why raise out of the blinds? It defines hand strength, gives you control. It really is the same reason why it is way more profitable raising PF then limping. You can take away the pot with a cbet a huge % of the time.

Lets look at what happens when you don't raise with AQ here.

a) Flop an ace, playing out of position with hand strength not defined, so you wont know if villains raise is because he thinks you are BSing him (he would think this because he would expect a big ace to raise pf)
b) On an non ace flop (especially if king high), you lose the pot a large % of the time.
c) If you flop nothing, you lose the pot basically 100% of the time

There are probably more reasons, but you are losing a lot of value, IMO, in not raising with premiums out of the blinds.

Note, there are times in which I would advise calling or checking from the blinds with a good hand, but most of the time I think raising with big aces, AJs+ is correct here.

btw, IMO, sometimes calling loose aggros LP raises with a big ace is profitable over raising because you will almost always get action from them on the flop, and if you flop a big ace your hand looks very weak, giving him more reason to pay you off.

[PJo336]

If you do not raise and hit a good flop, you have deception. Once again Im not sure how useful this is in uNL, but I agree, you lose the C bet angle.

Are you more likely to raise out of the blinds with AJs+ with more limpers, or less limpers?

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
he's saying he's willing to go broke in a limped pot and you have TPGK. It's just a bluff catcher. Fold this here, I expect to see him flip over 33 a lot here. Oh, and if you're going for pot control c/c turn and 1/2 pot bet on river with a fold to a raise

I raise this preflop for value

[/ QUOTE ]

Spot on

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
33 makes sense too IMO

[/ QUOTE ]


Surely a villain with postflop aggro of 3 is raising 33 earlier?

[/ QUOTE ]

I called, villain had 33

[/ QUOTE ]


lol. Hence my location.

[Ikaika]

spacetime hit the nail on the head, good post.

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
My post flop game sucks OOP, your good enuff to handle a situation like this with a built pot, feel free to raise pre. I cant cuz I suck, therefore, I check

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising this hand preflop will make post flop easier.

[agoldenbear]

BAH!!! AQo in the BB and it's your option? RAISE POT!!!

[Ikaika]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My post flop game sucks OOP, your good enuff to handle a situation like this with a built pot, feel free to raise pre. I cant cuz I suck, therefore, I check

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising this hand preflop will make post flop easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol i posted that and ren went nuts on me.

[Brian O'Nolan]

There's very little chance you're getting 3 streets of value out of a 12/10 here unless you've seen him make retarded calldowns (which is possible but I would never do it w/o a read). I think the turn bet is fine but betting the river is spew- do you think he's calling with TPNK? PF you should be raising, 1) because you're raising JJ+ (raising any pair here is good too as we can pick up a lot of pots pf/flop and we get paid off more on sets) and more importantly, 2) to isolate the 83/4 fishie.

[PJo336]

Ahh, I like the isolation but I dont think the limping TAG is going anywhere

[catfish_01]

It's interesting that the tag didn't isolate the fish himself.

You don't really WANT the tag to go anywhere; there are so many postflop boards that will force him to concede his small pocket pair even if you do not improve. You just need to play such that you do not offer him the implied odds he needs when he does hit his set. And, if you, fishie, and TAGgy are involved in a pot, it is often correct to surrender an edge to the TAG in order to make the most from the fishy.

[spacetime]

You do have deception, correct. But the problem is, more times than not, you are not going to flop an ace. I view this as a "waste" of a premium.

With you second question, a lot does depend on the table. With AQs+, I am most likely raising if even the whole table limps. I think AJ has significantly less value then AQ because players, especially passive ones, will tend to limp AQ.

Another thing that determines if I raise with a decent ace is WHERE the limpers limped. A LP limp is significantly weaker than a UTG one.

[PJo336]

you sir are wise beyond your years...although i dont know how old you are

This turned out to be a very theoretical hand