Tricky spot with JJ in 3-bet pot. 50nl.

[Debaser]

Villain was 36/5/1 over 150 hands. Obviously I was happy with the flop but his bet kinda surprised me. This is just one of those spots where everything feels wrong. If I push this is a bigger pair every time and folding to a 1/2 pot bet is soooo weak. If I call I have 1/3 of my stack in and every turn card sucks.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $16.02
Hero: $55.63
Button: $117.70
SB: $45.95
BB: $63.81

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif ($21.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $10.75</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ??? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[CazicT]

Not every turn card sucks, what about a jack, heh.

Anyway, I'd say you're close to even money to win this hand, he could bet with an overpair lower than yours or even just overcards to take a stab at the pot. With the money in the pot now, I can't see folding.

Pushing is probably best just in case he is just taking a stab with AK or something you don't want him to get a cheap card to beat you.

[maccamack]

I think your analysis is right, that only a hand that beats you calls a raise. That bet looks like one of two things to me:
1. A mid sized pocket pair trying to figure out where it stands or
2. A much stronger hand - boat, KK/AA trying to get a raise.

So, I would call this and see what he does on the turn. His aggression number is not that high, so if he bets the turn aggressively, you have to fold.

The trickiest bit is what to do if he checks the turn, I think I would be inclined to check behind, but a 1/2 pot bet is not bad either.

[CazicT]

His VPIP is high enough so he could have called the PF raise with most PP's right? His flop bet indicates he probably has an overpair, since his AF is low. It isn't impossible, but it isn't likely that he is betting with less than an overpair.

The question is would he bet with ANY overpair? If he would, I don't think you can fold this hand at all. If you call, are you really gonna fold to any turn bet? There isn't alot behind so even if he bets all-in, it's hard to lay our hand down, if he doesn't bet all-in we are commited anyway.

I guess it all comes down to how much you want to read into his low AF. Is he so non-aggro that he wouldn't bet this with a pair of 8's?

[BobAllinSki]

I hate these spots, I think a call is right with position, your gonna face AK around 50% here and he isnt allways gonna keep firing. The trickiest spot is when the turn bricks and he makes a really weak bet, say $10-$15 into a $40 pot, I find these bets really hard to fold against.

[good_gamble]

I don't think this is AK ever - cold calling a raise and reraise and leading flop? I prolly call and see what he does on turn

[Bowlboy]

He only raises 5% PF so I tend to just call PF as most of his range is probably TT-AA, and AK, AQ. Not surehow accurate that would be for 5% but he is UTG.

The board is pretty dry so I think his bet says that he doesnt mind a call though it could be AK or AQ. In that case I dont mind calling and see what he does on the turn though I doubt he fires turn with many hands you beat since his AF is only 1.

[.xxxx.]

The fact that he leads out should make you more likely to raise here. If you held AA/KK/QQ in this situation and knew your opponent to likely continuation bet at this flop, you'd lead out almost never (be honest) and C/R. Villain is likely sitting with mid pp and trying to figure out where he's at, repop/call push = profit.

[CazicT]

That 5, means he raises PF only 5% of the time? If that's the case, then that does lean him toward a higher PP.

They were playing 5 handed so I wouldn't consider UTG raise any stronger than his normal raise.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that he leads out should make you more likely to raise here. If you held AA/KK/QQ in this situation and knew your opponent to likely continuation bet at this flop, you'd lead out almost never (be honest) and C/R. Villain is likely sitting with mid pp and trying to figure out where he's at, repop/call push = profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much credit are we giving a 36/5/1 to understand this?

His AF of 1 and a donkbet are pretty unusual. I probably call and reevaluate.

[HBomb]

I'm thinking he has something like 1010 - JJ here, although the latter is much less likely obv, but this also could go for 77 here too, but what kind of person leads into that kind of flop with 77 if they are looking to make profit?

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking he has something like 1010 - JJ here, although the latter is much less likely obv, but this also could go for 77 here too, but what kind of person leads into that kind of flop with 77 if they are looking to make profit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would lead away with 77. Why not? Hero re-raised FP, there is a good chance he has a PP and might want to play for all his chips...