Calculating EV after the fact. . .

[CPHoya]

I'm not posting this for hand critique so much as to have an example with which to calculate EV, though critique is welcome. PF action seems to be because I was raising his limp calls from SB. He is an unknown who seems very bad (lots of limping oop, etc.).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($22.60)
MP ($91.30)
CO ($49.25)
Button ($93)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($59.15)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($57.50)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $8.5</font>, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($17) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $49.5 (All-In)</font>, SB calls $34.50.

Turn: ($116) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($116) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $116

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB doesn't show.
Hero has Ad Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $116. </font>

The probability that my hand wins is .631, his .369. Ties are impossible.

First, the EV of my flop shove.

To calculate EV, I subtract the probability of my loss multiplied by my bet from the the product of the probability of my win multiplied by the pot. So P(win)(pot) - P(lose)(bet) = EV.

In this case, it works out to .631(66.50) - .369(49.5) = 23.7. So in the event that villain calls, I stand to make $23.70 each time.

From villain's perspective, the calculation is .369(81.5) - .631(34.5) = 8.3. So when he calls he makes $8.30 each time.

I realize this should be expanded to include probability of his folding, which increases my EV on the play, etc., but I want to get the basic EV of villain's call in a vacuum first.

[.xxxx.]

[ QUOTE ]

The probability that my hand wins is .631, his .369. Ties are impossible.

First, the EV of my flop shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp, and for the probabilities you need to show some hand ranges. You always calculate EV based on ranges, and when we get to the fun stuff of learning ranges we can further narrow the range that villain is calling your pushes with in order to clean up how often you're behind and maybe get an idea of Fold Equity for said move.

[CPHoya]

I think I was unclear. I'm posting this simply to see whether or not I'm calculating the EV of this isolated call properly.

The reason I'm intrigued is villain's best play is to call even though he's behind - I want to figure out how I could have put him in a position where the call was clearly a mistake (or else I'm calculating this incorrectly). Maybe this is impossible because his lead was so large.

[.xxxx.]

What hand/hands are you getting these probabilities from? AQ vs randoms?

[Pirelli]

Your maths is correct. You can't force a mistake here, the pot is too big.

[CPHoya]

.xxxx.,

I get the miscomunication now. It's the probability of AQ holding up on that flop against 4s5s (check out the results in white to see where I got 4s5s).

EDIT: Aghhh! Villain had 4s5s here. He showed it down and won. F Full Tilt histories. Sorry, many times over.

[TheRenaissance]

Villain's mistake in this hand according to the fundamental theroem was committing his stack with a worse hand without any fold equity (assuming he not only knew your hand but also your tendencies).