How to play AK in reraised pot, flopping gutshot with 2 overs? [Archive]

View Full Version : How to play AK in reraised pot, flopping gutshot with 2 overs?

illph

04-24-2007, 09:17 PM

Hi unl,

The Hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($5)
UTG ($5.88)
UTG+1 ($2.92)
MP1 ($10.49)
MP2 ($4.70)
MP3 ($0)
CO ($4.37)
Button ($4.52)
SB ($4.96)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.04, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.04, CO calls $0.04, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.38, 1 fold, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.36, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.48) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets $1, Hero folds.

Turn: ($3.48) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)

River: ($3.48) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)

Final Pot: $3.48

Opponent didn't get out of line the time I was at the table so after the preflop re-reraise i put him on AA,KK,QQ maybe JJ. So i thought it wouldn't be -ev if i take a flop and try to catch one of my overs if he's on KK/QQ/JJ.

On the flop I had a gutshot with 2 overs but after his bet I was thinking that I may only have 4 real outs. In my opinion i was either behind or way behind.

If i had pushed i would have gotten over 1:2 on my money(3,48$ in the pot + villain had 3$ left), so is folding -ev in the long run? I may be playing scared here, I don't know.

Also is preflop play a leak? Would you shove/fold after a hefty reraise?

(one limper had disconnect protect preflop so I can post results later)

Again, thanks in advance for your replies.

Nick C

04-24-2007, 10:16 PM

Well, let's see. The pot has about $1.70 in it and it's about $0.60 back to you. Possibly CO will continue to come along, and if so, that will improve your odds (while also improving your chance of losing the hand). But, anyway, for now let's say you're getting about 3:1 with $4 behind for SB that we can also play for. With perfect implied odds vs. SB, then, you'd be getting almost 10:1.

That range you gave for SB is troubling, though. Here goes:

AA = 3
KK = 3
QQ = 6
JJ = 3 (I'm discounting because you said "maybe JJ"; possibly I should have done the same for QQ)

Versus AA, you're in absolutely horrible shape and are mostly just screwed, although you will flop TPTK roughly 22 percent of the time and (most likely) end up losing your stack.

Versus KK, you're going to outflop Villain roughly 16 percent of the time. Meanwhile, roughly 6 percent of the time, the case king will fall on the flop and you'll get stacked.

Versus QQ and JJ, suddenly we have a legitimate chance. We'll outflop those hands roughly 1/3 of the time (a little less, really, since about 3 percent of the time we'll flop TPTK at the same time Villain flops a set).

All right, then, that means approxmiately 320/1,500 times, or about 1/5 of the time, we'll outflop Villain. And we'll flop absolutely horribly (meaning we'll make a very unprofitable 2nd best hand) a little over 100/1,500 times. Also, if we're assuming we're going to stack Villain when we flop good, then we have to allow him some suckout potential on the turn and river.

And my approximations are really adding up and getting rough at this point, but it's looking like we'll stack Villain a net of about 1/8 of the time or so (I subtracted the times we get stacked instead). And I guess this makes the call okay, but I'm thinking Villain will play better than I'm giving him credit for in this model and won't necessarily stack off, for instance, with QQ on an ace-high flop (and this becomes even more true if the third guy continues to come along).

So I guess this means that folding to the 4-bet is most likely best, but I'll admit that it's not easy to do, given the semi-reasonable odds you appear to be getting.

illph

04-24-2007, 11:00 PM

Thank you for that detailed analysis. Concerning the preflop play I also ran the some numbers in pokerstove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.955% 34.64% 00.32% 128106564 1177506.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 65.045% 64.73% 00.32% 239396088 1177506.00 { JJ+ }

So when I push after his reraise i may get some cents dead money in the pot but with close to zero fold equity that play is clearly -ev(numbers dont change much if i add AK to his range: I get 40% : 60% ).

So yeah, with small implied odds and horrible reverse implied odds it's a fold pf.

Also: As played fold/call/push flop?