Past oil peak ?

[benjdm]

Saw this on slashdot:

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

We may have passed peak oil production in December.

[Metric]

I don't know if it's true -- I've heard fairly convincing arguments both ways -- but it would really, really suck if true.

[bunny]

It seems to me that doomsayers always underestimate the future progress of science. I remember being told the world's oil supply would run out in the early 1980s. Similarly, the world's grain supply was going to catastrophically fail (resulting in worldwide starvation of something like 50% of the world's population) before the end of the 20th century.

It is clearly true that we cant expect oil supply to continue indefinitely. I'm willing to put good money on the falsity of the author's statement that we will be back in the stone age by 2025 though.

[matrix]

I think the world will be a better place once the oil has run out.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
Saw this on slashdot:

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

We may have passed peak oil production in December.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am reminded of the apocolyptic cataclysms that befell the human race when we ran out of stones at the end of the Stone Age.

Oh, wait. Nevermind.

[Max Weinberg]

Time to break out the bicycles, pump up the tires, and oil up the gears...

Wait... Oil up the gears?

Noooooooo!

[Copernicus]

veggie oil will do just fine for the gears

[matrix]

They can already build engines that run on things like ethanol. These engines are much "greener" than their traditional oil based counterparts - but oh no we can't use them - think of the poor oil companies profits.

Plastic will become a thing of the past. So no more waste carrier bags clogging up landfill sites taking 1000's of years to biodegrade.

While they are at it if they can run out of coal and gas at the same time this can only be a good thing in the long term. True the transition period from fossil fuels to new fuels is going to be a bitch but once that relatively minor hump in the road has been got past I see only good things about this.

[chezlaw]

We'll soom be praising thatcher's foresight in saving all that coal for us /images/graemlins/smile.gif

chez

[Metric]

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While they are at it if they can run out of coal and gas at the same time this can only be a good thing in the long term. True the transition period from fossil fuels to new fuels is going to be a bitch but once that relatively minor hump in the road has been got past I see only good things about this.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem is, there are currently no scalable "other sources" of energy (with the possible exception of nuclear). If fossile fuel production peaks, civilization peaks with it. Keep in mind that a large fraction of the total enegy budget goes directly into providing fresh water to the masses and producing/distributing food across the country. These needs don't just "go away" when energy becomes increasingly scarce on the "other side" of the curve.

The beauty of oil is that you just dig a hole and an abudant source of energy (with a huge and immediate energy return on energy investment) comes rushing out at you -- you're not going to find a replacement source like it.

[chezlaw]

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While they are at it if they can run out of coal and gas at the same time this can only be a good thing in the long term. True the transition period from fossil fuels to new fuels is going to be a bitch but once that relatively minor hump in the road has been got past I see only good things about this.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem is, there are currently no scalable "other sources" of energy (with the possible exception of nuclear). If fossile fuel production peaks, civilization peaks with it. Keep in mind that a large fraction of the total enegy budget goes directly into providing fresh water to the masses and producing/distributing food across the country. These needs don't just "go away" when energy becomes increasingly scarce on the "other side" of the curve.

The beauty of oil is that you just dig a hole and an abudant source of energy (with a huge and immediate energy return on energy investment) comes rushing out at you -- you're not going to find a replacement source like it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Its hard to see an alternative to nuclear. As fossil fuels run out then the economies of nuclear powered countries will be so dominant over the rest that the rest will have to fall in line.


Maybe this will lead to the holy grail of fusion which might usher in an even more prosperous era.

chez

[matrix]

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The beauty of oil is that you just dig a hole and an abudant source of energy (with a huge and immediate energy return on energy investment) comes rushing out at you -- you're not going to find a replacement source like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is beautiful about digging a hole and having black sticky highly polluting [censored] come gushing out of it?

As far as replacement energy sources go how about cold fusion?
Or collecting energy by splitting water into it's component elements and then recombining them to make more fuel (water) I woud not be at all surprised to learn that both of these things have already been discovered and some oil companies R&D dept is sitting on it - waiting until they have squeezed every last cent out of oil before releasing this information.

There are many many many other much better sources or energy than fossil fuels - we just haven't discovered/perfected them yet.

There is no greater catalyst for invention than a pressing dire need for something. Look how fast science advances in fields like aeronautics when there is war on...

[Metric]

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Maybe this will lead to the holy grail of fusion which might usher in an even more prosperous era.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most optimistic numbers I can recall are that fusion as a "useful" energy source is 50 years out, assuming no unpleasant surprises in clearing technological hurdles "on schedule." Even then, may not be the panacea that people think it will be. What a pity that "cold fusion" never panned out -- what a revolution that would have been!

[Metric]

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[ QUOTE ]

The beauty of oil is that you just dig a hole and an abudant source of energy (with a huge and immediate energy return on energy investment) comes rushing out at you -- you're not going to find a replacement source like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is beautiful about digging a hole and having black sticky highly polluting [censored] come gushing out of it?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's beautiful in the sense that you can power modern economies and widespread wealth to such an extent that the scientific revolution followed. It would not have happened if the entire population was busy farming potatoes.

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As far as replacement energy sources go how about cold fusion?

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I would definately love it, but it's a fantasy. I personally know people who did cold-fusion research when that whole thing took off (and quickly died). It quite simply doesn't work.

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Or collecting energy by splitting water into it's component elements and then recombining them to make more fuel (water)

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Thermodynamics is what's wrong with that. The energy has to come from some place else.

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I woud not be at all surprised to learn that both of these things have already been discovered and some oil companies R&D dept is sitting on it - waiting until they have squeezed every last cent out of oil before releasing this information.

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I personally know that these two things will not become a source of energy. One is forbidden by thermodynamics -- the other, the basic properties of the strong nuclear force.

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There are many many many other much better sources or energy than fossil fuels - we just haven't discovered/perfected them yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well if we're peaking now, it's not going to do us much good to have them "out there."

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There is no greater catalyst for invention than a pressing dire need for something. Look how fast science advances in fields like aeronautics when there is war on...

[/ QUOTE ]
There has always been a huge incentive for discovering such an abundant source of energy -- money. If we're truly peaking now, we'd better make an utterly REVOLUTIONARY discovery pretty damn quickly. And it had better be good to be on the same level of "civilization changing" as discovering that it takes little more than drilling a hole in the ground to power the entire world.

[chezlaw]

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Maybe this will lead to the holy grail of fusion which might usher in an even more prosperous era.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most optimistic numbers I can recall are that fusion as a "useful" energy source is 50 years out, assuming no unpleasant surprises in clearing technological hurdles "on schedule." Even then, may not be the panacea that people think it will be. What a pity that "cold fusion" never panned out -- what a revolution that would have been!

[/ QUOTE ]
True its not an era I expect to benefit from but the more needed the energy is the more easily the hurdles will be overcome. I expect to see a lot more fission in the next 20-30 years, power plants they tell us take 15 years to comission will spring up with suprising speed if our fuel bills rise dramatically or they have to start rationaing power, I can remember the 3-day week (just).

chez

[Metric]

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Maybe this will lead to the holy grail of fusion which might usher in an even more prosperous era.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most optimistic numbers I can recall are that fusion as a "useful" energy source is 50 years out, assuming no unpleasant surprises in clearing technological hurdles "on schedule." Even then, may not be the panacea that people think it will be. What a pity that "cold fusion" never panned out -- what a revolution that would have been!

[/ QUOTE ]
True its not an era I expect to benefit from but the more needed the energy is the more easily the hurdles will be overcome. I expect to see a lot more fission in the next 20-30 years, power plants they tell us take 15 years to comission will spring up with suprising speed if our fuel bills rise dramatically or they have to start rationaing power, I can remember the 3-day week (just).

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I tend to agree about the fission plants -- the red tape would tend to be bypassed very quickly if economies start to collapse with little hope of regaining ground without cheaper energy.