whats your gut feeling about the future of online poker?

[shymijo2love4]

do you think we will be banned or do you think there will be a deal reached by our goverment?

[MusashiStyle]

i don't know, i think that things will change over the next ten years and it will be slow.

[snowbank]

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do you think we will be banned or do you think there will be a deal reached by our goverment?

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If I were to guess, in 2-3 years poker will be regulated. That's just my opinion with no facts behind it.

[Berge20]

I think what we currently have will remain in effect and be the law of the land for the next 5 years.

[bottomset]

I hope it will be regulated, Party will be back and a second boom happens within the next 2-3yrs

I think it will stay similar to its current state

[jafeather]

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I think what we currently have will remain in effect and be the law of the land for the next 5 years.

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So if this is the case do you also believe:

A)Methods of funding will continue to diminish at a greater rate than new methods appear?

B)The games, already notably more difficult than pre-UIGEA, will continue to get more difficult?

C)The cannabalizing of pros, semi-pros and serious amateurs will escalate as total number of players dwindle?

D)The number of poker sites available to players (at least US players, perhaps beyond) will continue falling as the sites also cannabalize each other?

I'm not saying I believe any of the above will occur. However, if the current level of UIGEA enforcement continues with it's current success rate for 5 years (therefore taking the results of the last six months and multiplying them ten-fold,) then they are strong considerations.

[Berge20]

Let me put it this way, and by no means to I wish to discourage people. Especially since I have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future on something. This is just my opinion.

I believe that it is likely that the status quo will remain in effect for the near future for a few reasons.

This community seems to overestimate how easy it is to change current law and regulations. Ironic, considering how prior to the UIGEA becoming law it was "never going to happen". Changing law is extremely difficult and it only occurred last fall because a lot of political capital was used by the then Senate leader.

Legislating takes ages. You can't name a post office after a great local leader in less than 6-months most of the time. Things that generate controversy are many times more difficult to actually succeed. Even things with fairly wide popular support in the public, such as minimum wage increases or embryonic stem cell research funding, have high hurdles to overcome.

This community also over estimates the desire for change by the general public on this matter. One of the lead proponents for some changes in the law (Mr. Frank) indicated that he needed to see a groundswell of support/outcry before he would try and move a fix. We see the number 20 million poker players in the US bandied about sometimes, but that isn't the number of politically active people on the subject.

The lobbying organizations that are focused on this issue are new and it takes some time before they are able to demonstrate their power and political muscle.

This issue is not on anyone's political radar. Even though the Democratic party is generally more favorable to this cause than the Republican party, does not mean that the recent change in power means they are interested in fixing it. This issue has minimal political value outside of a small area and, quite frankly, has the potential for backlash from many voters they want to attract.

Now, to your questions
a) I do think that once the regulations come out and it becomes a cat-n-mouse game that funding will become even more difficult. Unless the DoJ demonstrates an unwillingness to pursue things, organizations are likely not going to risk penalties. That increases the risk for persons wishing to circumvent the law.

B) I belive that since it is (and will be) harder for new players, part-time recreational gamblers and big fish to easily toss money into the system that the games will get harder.

C) Seems to me that this results from A and B

D) Probably, but I think there will always be some sites that are willing to cater to the US market. It is certain big enough that there are tons of incentives to do so (either now and in the future).

[plasphemy]

I agree that it will be regulated eventually, though it could be as much as 10 years away. Between now and then, there will still be online gambling but only persons willing to jump through the hoops to fund their account will participate (like it is now).

After it is regulated, MGM Mirage and Harrahs and other big gambling corporations will implement business plans and bum rush the market. Party, Stars, Full Tilt will be marginalized over a short time.

The fish will flock to these new big sites benefiting from easy deposit options and trust of the sites.

Maybe I'm optimistic...

[1p0kerboy]

That was depressing.

[Berge20]

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That was depressing.

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Sorry /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I hope that I'm wrong. I really do. As far as I'm concerned, this is an infringement on my freedoms. Unfortunately it takes an event like this to spur the political involvement of the poker electorate. This takes time to grow and become a force.

I do think that in the next ten years that the B&M casinos, along with online players (assuming the PPA can keep a strong/active base) will eventually lead to the regulation of it. I just don't see that happening in the next couple of years.

Around here we have also equated the B&M Casino lobby as super strong. While it can be influential, their infrastructure has been set up to focus on state-by-state efforts (where they have seen great successes). They have been moving to establish a strong national lobbying effort and can get some things done when they need to.

Ultimately, I expect them to further position themselves in DC on the matter politically in the next couple of years while they are doing the same in the market.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me put it this way, and by no means to I wish to discourage people. Especially since I have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future on something. This is just my opinion.

I believe that it is likely that the status quo will remain in effect for the near future for a few reasons.


[/ QUOTE ]


Are you joking? The status quo is a great thing!

[Berge20]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me put it this way, and by no means to I wish to discourage people. Especially since I have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future on something. This is just my opinion.

I believe that it is likely that the status quo will remain in effect for the near future for a few reasons.


[/ QUOTE ]


Are you joking? The status quo is a great thing!

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess if you think the current situation is fine, then we will disagree. In my view, things are significantly different than they were in Sept '06 (which seems to be what people want back).

Edit - I also don't see any big push to further restrict US players on the matter. The major players are gone and/or out of the majority.

Obviously, I don't want it to go that way from the current "status quo"

[TheEngineer]

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I also don't see any big push to further restrict US players on the matter

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the main effect right now of our letters and complaints to our politicians. Barney Frank has stated that they're all hearing from us. Please keep it up. Follow the Action threads and try to participate. Even though it will be a long struggle, we'll be able to play in the meantime, as there's certainly no pending legislation that will make this any worse. The only hurdle remaining is the new regs, really.

[JPFisher55]

I think that things will change for the better after the Bush administration is gone. If nothing else, the DOJ under a new president will give up its war of intimidation against online poker.
I believe that by that time, the US will have to obey the WTO.
However, I am not hopeful of any change during the Bush Administration. I still think any change in 2007-2008 will come from court cases. If Gonzalez is forced to resign, it might benefit online gambling.
Despite recent reports on this forum, I still do not believe that the regulations will be issued on time or event this year.

[1p0kerboy]

The status quo is certainly not great. The games were much better before, there were more bonuses, etc.

I think online poker has a good future but I also agree with Berge's timeline and reasoning.

[Uglyowl]

We lost a little more than 1/2 of the major poker sites in the United States.

My personal feeling is we have hit rock bottom. Legally I don't think anything will really change. Government will still go after sportsbooks, no public company will service the U.S. poker market, and I bet a new site or two will enter the U.S. market to take the place of the tons of missing ones. The new Neteller (poker only) will emerge in the next 2 years.

It will be slow, but will rebuild.

[jafeather]

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My personal feeling is we have hit rock bottom.

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It will be slow, but will rebuild.

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I agree with the latter, but not the former. Until an actual legal improvement is made, it cannot get better (and actually will not likely level out.) We may be at the legal rock bottom now, but the ramifications of those laws are still in a state of infancy. Until it's easy to restock the fish ponds, we have not hit bottom....the bottom will continue to get deeper.

[demon102]

I always thought that eventually it will be legalized and regulated, the only thing is that it will take time.

[1meandog4u]

[ QUOTE ]
I do think that in the next ten years that the B&M casinos, along with online players (assuming the PPA can keep a strong/active base) will eventually lead to the regulation of it. I just don't see that happening in the next couple of years.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for discussion purposes, I have a "slightly" more optimistic time frame. I think the B&M casinos are going to see a HUGE drop in tournament enrollments. A lot of their recent success is because of the internet poker sites feeding their big tournaments. They won't stand around and see nearly 9000 WSOP entrants turn back to 2000 or maybe less. IMHO

I have a now-deceased close friend who won a bracelet at WSOP, before he passed away we often discussed this topic. He felt casinos saw the boom and will do whatever it takes to see that continue.

[curtains]

If this is the bottom then the world is a beautiful place! And trust me my win rate has dropped by at least 1/2 but ok I'm not greedy.

[YoDuff]

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Until it's easy to restock the fish ponds, we have not hit bottom....the bottom will continue to get deeper.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. The games got tougher and are continuing to get tougher.
BUT . . . on the bright side - when poker finally is regulated, I think it will likely be even better than before because actual regulation will give even more fish a comfortable feeling that it's legal, and the B&M's opening their sites will give more fish(including bigger fish) a place they trust. Moving up won't be as difficult IMO. Of course, for now that thought is just tormenting. I want it NOW.

[Grasshopp3r]

I think that Asia will open up and there will be a poker boom unlike any of us may have dreamed to contemplate. I also think that the currency systems are going to see radical changes.

[dtan05]

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If this is the bottom then the world is a beautiful place! And trust me my win rate has dropped by at least 1/2 but ok I'm not greedy.

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seriously. If you even make six figures/year playing online poker, nobody should be complaining. ESPECIALLY when you can do it in like 20 hrs a week. Heck, 50k a year is nice, for the "work" you're doing, and that is easily attainable.