50 NL; bottom set

[Lego05]

Villian is 16.3/10.87/3.00 over 92 hands.

This board is just so dry. Does anybody think about folding here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($50.05)
BB ($51.35)
UTG ($51.30)
MP ($21.50)
CO ($68)
Hero ($69.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $49.3</font>, Hero ???

Went to showdown 6 of 14.
Won at showdown 4 of 6

Edit: Adding shoiwdown percentages

[Numfar]

You call PF hoping that an A comes so you can stack AK - that's what happened. Never fold here.

[SirFelixCat]

So you are worried about, exactly AA and 77. Too often villain has AK or AQ or the ilk. I call....


eta: Not to mention the reason you play 22 is to hit your set and stack AK or the like. CALL!

[tarheeljks]

no way am i folding here. he could have AQ+. we are destroying his range.

[SirFelixCat]

I mean, if villain is a thinking player, he could see this as a non-drawy board as well and think, if hero is raising here, very well could have a set and my AAA gets paid huge here.


But those times are so rare at these stakes that you're just too far ahead of his range to muck. You hit your hand now get paid for it (the vast majority of the time)!

[Lego05]

I honestly from playing with this guy thought his range after 3 betting was extremely narrow.

I made the call cause there's the chance of AK and what I thought was quite a small chance of AQ. But I honestly couldn't think of any hands he did that with that I beat besides AK, which he may not even do that with and a very minute chance of AQ.

[barryc83]

Dude set over set is just a cooler, plain and simple. You should be happy to get it in here.

[Lego05]

Yea I've never thought about folding a set before besides on obv. straight or flush boards. I felt like I was behind here. Could just be the way I'd been running with these low sets.

[catfish_01]

You would need a read that this opponent specifically would not AI with anything less than a better set here to fold this IMO (and of course, it's hard to find rocks that tight online.)

[ciki57]

Isn't this what you dream about when you get pocket pair?

Instacall.

[Chxdgt]

[ QUOTE ]
This board is just so dry. Does anybody think about folding here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, I shove. I had a very similar hand this evening and ended up losing to quads. Given the opportunity, I'd do the same thing again.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 16.3/10.87/3.00 over 92 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, we need to stop looking at our cards as much as we need to look at villains range here. AA and 77 are in that range, as are AK and AQ, AJs and thats about it. Is villain shoving TP to a reraise here? I'm not saying I'd fold, but our analysis should be more than overshove/call and include his range from that position AND his action post flop.

[ciki57]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: 7d 2h Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.459% 66.99% 00.00% 3619361 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 33.541% 33.81% 00.00% 1826679 0.00 { AA, 77, AKs, AKo }


</pre><hr />

[wslee00]

please call

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 16.3/10.87/3.00 over 92 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, we need to stop looking at our cards as much as we need to look at villains range here. AA and 77 are in that range, as are AK and AQ, AJs and thats about it. Is villain shoving TP to a reraise here? I'm not saying I'd fold, but our analysis should be more than overshove/call and include his range from that position AND his action post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you run the numbers in Poker Stove, you see that your equity is greater than 80% with your range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: As 7d 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.376% 80.38% 00.00% 26259 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 19.624% 19.62% 00.00% 6411 0.00 { AA, 77, AJs+, AQo+ }

How do you justify folding?

[orange]

folding here is nasty. AK no goot ship it.

[Loc0Loc0]

I'd call ...

Wouldn't AA/77 which pushes miss a lot of value here?

[Grim Reapa]

Let the timer tick down to 1 second, type "ship it" in the chat box then call!

Seriously if you fold here you should stop playing the poker!!

[flo]

[ QUOTE ]
please call

[/ QUOTE ]

[sdunsmb]

call.

[Davey Valentine]

GET IT IN!