Giving up on an Overpair

[Austiger]

No reads.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($50)
CO ($42.05)
Button ($83.60)
Hero ($51.25)
BB ($53.50)
UTG ($48.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $0.50, MP (poster) checks, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3.50, MP folds, CO calls $3.50.

Flop: ($13) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG calls $8, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20</font>, Hero folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $49

[cprice2]

I think its a good fold, you got to assume you're beat to KK or AA, or they hit their set. They could have JJ, but I think thats the only hand you would be good against.

[payday]

How is your table image?

I ask because I have seen this flop raise with hands alot weaker than QQ, particuarly if you have been cbetting your raises almost every time. That being said, most of the time this is a good fold.

[ciki57]

I agree, good fold.

Best case scenario is you're against some combo draw. Probably pair + FD or FD+overcard. Sets and AA/KK have you crushed.

And you also have UTG behind you to worry about...

[NSchandler]

Maybe I'm a spew monkey but I push. I think flush draws and JJ - 77 make up a large part of villain's range.

[ciki57]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm a spew monkey but I push. I think flush draws and JJ - 77 make up a large part of villain's range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like that, beacuse we have UTG behind. It would suck if he had a set, which is possible given his line (call/call UTG PF with small PP, slowplayed on flop...)

[NSchandler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm a spew monkey but I push. I think flush draws and JJ - 77 make up a large part of villain's range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like that, beacuse we have UTG behind. It would suck if he had a set, which is possible given his line (call/call UTG PF with small PP, slowplayed on flop...)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's possible, but it looks more like a draw to me. This board is fairly drawy, and in a 3-way pot I'd expect a set to raise here. But they do love to slowplay at NL50, so who knows.

[agoldenbear]

i think this fold is too weak. AA and KK seem very unlikely, and in terms of probability, an overpair that you beat is 3.3x more likely than a set. 5 overpairs (77-JJ) times 6 ways each is 30 hands, versus 3 combos each of 22, 44, and 66 = 9 possible hands. Add in the unlikely AA and KK and the ratio is still 30:21 in your favor.

AK of diamonds is the only drawing hand that is better than even money to outdraw you, approximately 53%, and with one possible combination for that, you're up to 30 hands you beat and 22 that are in the lead.

I find the pair + FD hard to imagine. Ace 4 of diamonds? Nah.

So it's very questionable. If you've been making a lot of cbets, I push here. If villain is tight and unimaginative, I fold fold fold.

[evazan]

I think this is a good fold. The pf play makes low pockets the most likely holdings for both villains. Unless they both have very low pfr% id assume they would bet out 99+.

If the CO doesn't have a set chances are UTG has one.

[evazan]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this fold is too weak. AA and KK seem very unlikely, and in terms of probability, an overpair that you beat is 3.3x more likely than a set. 5 overpairs (77-JJ) times 6 ways each is 30 hands, versus 3 combos each of 22, 44, and 66 = 9 possible hands. Add in the unlikely AA and KK and the ratio is still 30:21 in your favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't just say it is more likely that villain has an over pair you beat. You have to look at how the action in the hand went and then place percentages. A couple people have said JJ is a possibility but only the most passive players limp JJ pf. The OP bet out, got one caller, and then the next person raised, and both of their ranges are weighted heavily towards low pockets, and the board came low cards.

Why would CO be betting a draw here? He is already getting good enough odds to draw and he can't be expecting this bet to get both of you to fold. I think this is very very likely to be a set.

[Isura]

Fold is good. CO is showing tremendous strength.

[agoldenbear]

good point evazan. i actually glossed over the fact that his bet got a call and was then raised. in this context you're right, a set does seem more probable. in a HU scenario i think we're usually ahead here.