50 NL- Overpair, does this donker actually have a set?

[ajml]

I raise the flop pretty much anytime anyone donks small. They pretty much always fold, though this villain has probably seen me do it numerous times. I have him at 16/6/1.7 with a flop aggression of 1.5 but a turn aggression of 6. Based on those numbers I really wanted to call this... thoughts? Besides the donk his hand screams set.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($52)
MP ($43.10)
Hero ($77.85)
Button ($42.80)
SB ($59.50)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($50.75)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $5.50.

Turn: ($24) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $69

[Margin Of Error]

I think if he does this with TPTK or a draw even 1 out of 3 times you have got to stack off here. You've got to call $15 into a $69 pot and hes got $10 behind.

If you didnt want to play for stacks here you should have checked behind on the turn and reevaluate the river.

[SykoraG]

With your read you definately have to call. On another note, what is his C/R % off the turn? This is K 10/ ace 10 / J J here enough to call and stack off.

[Waingro]

The flop was 4-way, so that makes it less likely either of you is just dicking around, so it was probably correct.

[RobAtticus]

[ QUOTE ]

If you didnt want to play for stacks here you should have checked behind on the turn and reevaluate the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty important point. Did you put him on a set on the flop? Did you think it was a set because he reraised?

If you were worried about being beat, you should probably control the pot by checking the turn, that way he can't go nuts of the river because of the pot size and you can take the line of check/call or if he checks turn and river, bet then.

[Bartzini]

Id have a hard time folding here, at least at these stakes.

My thinking would be that if he had a set by the turn, he would have reraised you there. Why only call the turn? Unless he had 2 2, but how likely is that.


I think these are the situations were i loose a lot more money than i should though.

[Margin Of Error]

[ QUOTE ]
Id have a hard time folding here, at least at these stakes.


I think these are the situations were i loose a lot more money than i should though.

[/ QUOTE ]


Unless weve seen villian stack off with TPTK before there is no reason to play a big pot here.

[SykoraG]

with a turn aggression of 6, theres no way I can fold this. I seriously think that half the time he has a set and half the time he has something we beat. All in all day here!

[Bartzini]

Take back what i said about the turn...re read it now...2 was the turn card.


that sorta changes things for me...would be a very tough call for me to make given the way it was played here.

[ajml]

this is the only instance i have of this opponent check raising the turn in 500 hands (i know small sample). however he has only cr the flop once as well and never the turn. those stats make me feel better about this fold. however in the future i will take the check turn, call or vbet river line.

[sc24evr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you didnt want to play for stacks here you should have checked behind on the turn and reevaluate the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty important point. Did you put him on a set on the flop? Did you think it was a set because he reraised?

If you were worried about being beat, you should probably control the pot by checking the turn, that way he can't go nuts of the river because of the pot size and you can take the line of check/call or if he checks turn and river, bet then.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have an excellent point, i totally agree.

[Empecinado]

The donk could be a blocking bet with a 35. Would make sense, wouldn't it?

[Chomp]

I raise flop and check turn here.

I think after flop I'm trying to balance getting some value from my good hand (from TP/PPs) with some pot control (as I'll rarely get 3 streets of value from this 16/6 villain anyway and his flop call worries me a bit).

Villain blocking a draw on the flop seems unlikely given texture and preflop action, so on turn I am not really worried about giving a free card. There are 6 outers but meh to them.

So I'll check turn firstly to control pot and secondly, from a value perspective, as I'm more likely get a call on river from TP than on turn (or on both turn and river).

Furtermore, checking cuts out chance of being c/r, perhaps even bluff c/r (although that's a very rare play at these stakes IMO).

On the river, I'll vb if checked to and probably call a vb from villain and expect to win. If that bet turns out to be with a set, then I've lost the minimum given I checked turn. And if he is betting with TP, then I have gotten my 2 streets of value, which is good. If villain puts in a huge bluff bet I might sometimes get that decision wrong by folding, but IMO that doesn't happen often enough to make checking turn a huge EV mistake.

(Just IMO).

[ihtfp]

OP - nice hand.