Standard set fold?

[Fiksdal]

Villains is a total retard, 85/4.8/2.82 over 21 hands, he sees almost all the flops. The table has broken up (wtf), but I'm staying because I want to play with this villain.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.05/$0.10 Blinds
4 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

SB: $24.40
BB: $2.80
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $14.35</font>
SB (small blind) collected: $7.30

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Thttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Thttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, SB calls $0.35, BB folds
Uncalled bet of $0 returned to Hero

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.90) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, SB calls $0.75

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($2.60) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.60</font>, Hero calls $2.60

<font color="black">River:</font> ($7.80) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $7.80</font>, Hero folds

Wow, I just looked at the hand history again and started questioning myself. Should I be?

[ama0330]

RAISE TURN ALL IN FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING! You are terminating his range.

Also, raise the flop bigger. Make it like $1.10

As played I snapcall the river against this guy

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

raise harder on the flop...a lot harder...you are giving him a very cheap price to draw with that raise, i also agree with ama ...shove the turn. it looks to me like you were scared to get stacked in this hand...if this is the case you should either move down or table hop once you are so deep that it affects your play

[cubase]

How did he get up to $24? Not to give him to much credit, but I've seen some smart LAGs before that see as many flops as possible as cheaply as possible but bail if they miss. While rare at this limit, I do find them.

Have you seen him make any big mistakes (other than pre-flop looseness?) He raising range is nice and tight (but too small a sample to really say) and he is aggressive, bless his heart. If I haven't seen him any massive mistakes when the pots grow, I'm probably folding here. Many hands in his range hits this flop and the turn (AT, A8, T8, KQ, 97, xhxh, Q9s, Q9o?, 88).

Other things I'd be wanting to know is:
1) What does his weak lead mean? Some players, weak lead = weak hand. I've seen other plays weak lead with monsters.
2) How often does his river bet = strength?
3) Does he mis-read the strength of his hand? (i.e., bets for value with two pair on a straighted flushed board)
4) Does he normally slow down when a flush card hits and he doesn't have the flush?
5) Will he lead rivers with a naked ace?
6) How often is bluffing rivers?

Probably a standard fold unless you have a specfic betting pattern read. Again, with his wide range, he's probably all over/around this flop.

You really need more history and reads to make the call here I think.

One might even argue folding the turn, but I don't mind calling to see if he fires again on the river, plus you may (again history needed) have implied odds if you hit your 10 outer.

[Xanta]

FFS this guy could have ATC here. Shove the turn and laugh when he calls with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Xanta]

[ QUOTE ]
How did he get up to $24? Not to give him to much credit, but I've seen some smart LAGs before that see as many flops as possible as cheaply as possible but bail if they miss. While rare at this limit, I do find them.

Have you seen him make any big mistakes (other than pre-flop looseness?) He raising range is nice and tight (but too small a sample to really say) and he is aggressive, bless his heart. If I haven't seen him any massive mistakes when the pots grow, I'm probably folding here. Many hands in his range hits this flop and the turn (AT, A8, T8, KQ, 97, xhxh, Q9s, Q9o?, 88).

Other things I'd be wanting to know is:
1) What does his weak lead mean? Some players, weak lead = weak hand. I've seen other plays weak lead with monsters.
2) How often does his river bet = strength?
3) Does he mis-read the strength of his hand? (i.e., bets for value with two pair on a straighted flushed board)
4) Does he normally slow down when a flush card hits and he doesn't have the flush?
5) Will he lead rivers with a naked ace?
6) How often is bluffing rivers?

Probably a standard fold unless you have a specfic betting pattern read. Again, with his wide range, he's probably all over/around this flop.

You really need more history and reads to make the call here I think.

One might even argue folding the turn, but I don't mind calling to see if he fires again on the river, plus you may (again history needed) have implied odds if you hit your 10 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hate to be a downer, but this is ridiculously weak/tight thinking.

[Better Than U]

[quoteOne might even argue folding the turn

[/ QUOTE ]actually nobody would argue this. The rest of your "arguement" isn't very good either since opponents change all the time at these limits.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[quoteOne might even argue folding the turn

[/ QUOTE ]actually nobody would argue this. The rest of your "arguement" isn't very good either since opponents change all the time at these limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Relax man, cut the guy a break.

Cubase, your thinking is sound but I feel like its pretty solid tounament advice. It sounds a lot like Dan Harrington speak - very tight, very concervative, and very good in large MTT's. In this spot, I prefer to think about his range of cards and what possible holdings he could have, rather than auto-assume that we are beat here. This used to be a big leak of mine, being too tight when the draws hit even though having the flush is acutally very unlikely and only one of the many hands he could have.

In this spot, if you weigh all the hands he could conceivably and logically have up against our hand, you'll find that we're actually ahead of this range, so we can get our money in. If he has the flush this time, hey, thats okay. We made an educated guess and it turned out bad this time. But its better to go broke with good equity versus his range than fold this spot every time.

See what I mean?

[Ikaika]

Turn raise is pretty crucial here, if he has the flush just reload and take your money back.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]

Hate to be a downer, but this is ridiculously weak/tight thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

So help me by providing more substance than the above. Run down your thought process so I can compare/contrast. Certainly I don't want to play weak/tight, but without you pointing out which portions of my thought process are weak/tight (and what you would replace the thinking with), I (nor the OP) recieve no value from your above statement.

[china_hard]

Your thinking is weak-tight to me because you say

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen some smart LAGs before that see as many flops as possible as cheaply as possible but bail if they miss. While rare at this limit, I do find them.

[/ QUOTE ]

yet you assume villain is one of these players. This is certainly not the way to think to beat micros.

[tarheeljks]

you are dominating his range. raise the turn.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[quoteOne might even argue folding the turn

[/ QUOTE ]actually nobody would argue this. The rest of your "arguement" isn't very good either since opponents change all the time at these limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Relax man, cut the guy a break.

Cubase, your thinking is sound but I feel like its pretty solid tounament advice. It sounds a lot like Dan Harrington speak - very tight, very concervative, and very good in large MTT's. In this spot, I prefer to think about his range of cards and what possible holdings he could have, rather than auto-assume that we are beat here. This used to be a big leak of mine, being too tight when the draws hit even though having the flush is acutally very unlikely and only one of the many hands he could have.

In this spot, if you weigh all the hands he could conceivably and logically have up against our hand, you'll find that we're actually ahead of this range, so we can get our money in. If he has the flush this time, hey, thats okay. We made an educated guess and it turned out bad this time. But its better to go broke with good equity versus his range than fold this spot every time.

See what I mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. The thinking really stems from a simple principle. I try to avoid marginal situations without solid reads. Here I have a player betting into me with several made draws showing on the board. Based on his short hand sample, he's playing a wide enough range to hit any of those draws.

The average non-studying player, in my mind, does not bet into flushed board. You see it online, you see live at the casino. The made flush board slows people down. In the abscence of any solid reads, I have difficulty conceiving that he is betting here with anything but the flush/straight or air. Even with the straight, he may bet it on the turn, but I think he weak leads on the river or simply checks the river.

In addition the flop "weak lead, call my raise" is another "standard" play I see by players trying to draw cheaply.

Since I don't have any reads, I have to fall back on *something*, and that something is going to be experience (right or wrong, correctly/incorrectly developed). My experience, FWIW, tells me he weak led on a draw, got there, and is value betting it. I will be wrong many times when I come across the player that weak-led with two pair and I folded the best. I think I'm okay with that until I discover his indivdual betting pattern, at which point, I will surely separate him from his stack(s).

Reasonable? Unreasonable?

I'm very curious to your mindset here, because I think mindset/approach to handling unknowns is a crucial part of your winrate. The game obviously becomes easier as you get to know your opps, but handling difficult boards with unknowns... another game in and of itself.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
Your thinking is weak-tight to me because you say

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen some smart LAGs before that see as many flops as possible as cheaply as possible but bail if they miss. While rare at this limit, I do find them.

[/ QUOTE ]

yet you assume villain is one of these players. This is certainly not the way to think to beat micros.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I've assumed nothing in this particular paragraph. I was asking the OP questions that I might consider. When I see a big stack, the first thing that pops into my mind is how did he acquire it? Then I observe... if I see several mistakes made, I begin to lean toward "he got his chips by accident". If I see some sharp plays, "though loose, he seems to be solid post-flop".

If your basis for considering me weak-tight is that which you've posted above, than I'm probably more confused. I'm not sure how observing stack sizes and asking yourself questions about how they were acquired and then observing your opps is considered weak-tight.

Again, your response indicates what is not ("This is certainly not the way to think to beat micros.") but does not describe the what *is*.

So what is the way to think to beat micros?

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
In this spot, I prefer to think about his range of cards and what possible holdings he could have, rather than auto-assume that we are beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Played around with some ranges, tried to guage what he might bet with here on the turn... I think I'm being liberal in having him bet with weak aces.

Board: Ah Th 8s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.676% 56.68% 00.00% 3192 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 43.324% 43.32% 00.00% 2440 0.00 { 88, A8s+, KQs, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, QhJh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, J9s, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, A8o+, KQo, J9o, 97o }

And a more conservative hand range...

Board: Ah Th 8s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.468% 51.47% 00.00% 2559 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 48.532% 48.53% 00.00% 2413 0.00 { JJ, 88, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, QhJh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, J9s+, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, T8s, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, ATo+, KQo, J9o+, T8o, 97o }

And finally a range I believe is closer to what villian is betting with (he suddenly leads into us on the turn... why? His hand got better (not necessarily winning, but better in HIS eyes)..

Board: Ah Th 8s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.240% 47.24% 00.00% 2037 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 52.760% 52.76% 00.00% 2275 0.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, ATs, KQs, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, QhJh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JTs, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, T8s, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, ATo+, KQo, JTo, T8o, 97o }

Anything you'd add or subtract from these turn hand ranges?

On the river, though, I end up narrowing his hand ranges further. There really are only a few hands that can bet on the river unless he doesn't put you on a flush...

Interested to hear more thoughts... This is a neat hand.

[TedHastings]

Good chance he has the flush here. Punish him with a pot sized raise on the flop, and then raise the turn again to find out what he has for sure. Why make it difficult for yourself?

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
I try to avoid marginal situations

[/ QUOTE ]


But this isnt a marginal situation :/

[Davey Valentine]

Push turn. You are giving players at this limit a LOT of credit which you should NOT be doing! If you have sensible bankroll management you should not be worrying about this hand at all.

[Fiksdal]

Thanks for discussion so far guys, this has been a good thread.

FWIW, what cubase said kinda summed up what I was thinking at the time I played the hand.

Look at villains flop bet. Those small bets are exactly what donkeys do out of position when they would really like a free card, often with drawing hands. There are plenty of draws on this board, like two hearts, 97, KQ or QJ. When I saw villain minibet here, I was thinking that those hands were now all very possible. btw my flop raise should obviously have been full pot, that was a mistake.

Now, a card that hit both the hearts, and 97 came on the turn. And look what happens. Villain leads. Would he lead a straight here? Yeah very possibly. Would he lead a flush? Almost positive, I find that more likely than him slow-playing it. Would he lead top pair or two pair?

I was thinking he'd be more likely to check/call with one pair or two pair on this board.

So I figured out a big part of his range were flushes (maybe wrong, but that's what I was thinking). I said to myself that, well, if I boat up I get the rest of this guys stack. Meaning I have the right price to call the turn. Also, if villain happened to check the river I would know I had the best hand, and would be able to value bet. So I thought I had to call.

I did, and a blank came on the river. Next thing, the villain bets full pot. I was outta there.

I reckon this has something to do with villains agression factor? It would be different against a 80/5/0.8, right? I probably didn't think enough about that during the hand.

If this is a very basic turn push, then I probably have some serious development to do as a hand reader.

[orange]

raise the flop harder.

given that you didnt, raise the turn.

given that you didnt, at the very minimum, call the river. i would probably raise the river but letting it go is awful. you said it yourself- villan is a tard. folding a set here is just disastrous.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
raise the flop harder.

given that you didnt, raise the turn.

given that you didnt, at the very minimum, call the river. i would probably raise the river but letting it go is awful. you said it yourself- villan is a tard. folding a set here is just disastrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still not sure how you can call the river here. What hands can feel *confident* betting into the straighted/flushed board? Even at this level, two-pair will get checked, so at a minimum you will be calling off a straight (the only hand I believe that could be bet, that isn't a flush, and has you beat). Even at this level, however, players are capable of checking their straight to a flush board.

If you could augment this phrase "folding a set here is just disastrous" with some hand ranges of what is betting here, maybe a stove result that represents what is in your mind might be helpful. I am seriously struggling with how a call can be made here without reads (save that of the tiny sample size of hands we have).

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I try to avoid marginal situations

[/ QUOTE ]


But this isnt a marginal situation :/

[/ QUOTE ]

I consider it a marginal situation when my hand, by the river, has been turned into a bluff/stupidity catcher.

At the river I can only beat a bluff or stupidity.

[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
And finally a range I believe is closer to what villian is betting with (he suddenly leads into us on the turn... why? His hand got better (not necessarily winning, but better in HIS eyes)..

Board: Ah Th 8s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.240% 47.24% 00.00% 2037 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 52.760% 52.76% 00.00% 2275 0.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, ATs, KQs, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, QhJh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JTs, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, T8s, 9h8h, 97s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, ATo+, KQo, JTo, T8o, 97o }

Anything you'd add or subtract from these turn hand ranges?

On the river, though, I end up narrowing his hand ranges further. There really are only a few hands that can bet on the river unless he doesn't put you on a flush...

Interested to hear more thoughts... This is a neat hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note that in your percieved hand range of him, you are a 5.5% underdog. There is dead money in the pot. Please raise the turn. I doubt his range is that tight.

As played, I would probably muck my hand on the river, but that might be missing out on EV.

[cb4mvp]

I think you have to raise him big on the flop, then raise him big/all in on the turn. As played, the river is probably a fold.