TT vs light reraiser

[cbloom]

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 5 players
Blinds : $0.25/$0.50

Stacks:
UTG : $48
CO : $21.90
Hero : $49.25
SB : $19
BB : $109.35

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, CO limps, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6</font>, CO folds, Hero calls ($3.50).

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($12.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $9.50</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($31.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $33.75</font>, Hero ???

BB is a TAG, like 22/20/9 (9% RR) , he definitely reraises light, but no idea how much he keeps it up, we haven't played much together. Is the flop call spew?

[briancash]

If he re-raises 9% you're ahead and should shove on the flop. Way more likely he has overs than JJ+ or a set.

[KEW]

Flop call standard..Absent solid read Fold turn..

Where are you getting the 9% RR number from from????

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

i like a fold preflop even though its impossible(atleast for me) i can find a fold on the flop though vs a very tagish villain

[wildzer0]

This looks pretty standard, I fold the turn. Is RR preflop a PAHUD stat I don't know about?

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
i like a fold preflop even though its impossible(atleast for me) i can find a fold on the flop though vs a very tagish villain

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop is way way way wrong. DUCY?

[orange]

fold turn. played std elsewhere.

[Isura]

Yeah, "I'm all-in".

[briancash]

I'd also appreciate if OP could mention where he gets his 9% RR stat.

Also I challenge anyone who says fold turn to explain your play. We're really not absent a read here, we can narrow down villain's range to 9% of hands and it's not so hard to come up with a few ranges of hands that typical TAG's re-raise from the blinds.

If anyone is interested, I'll post the numbers.

[Grim Reapa]

Fold turn.

And do not push the flop,your equity vs his calling range is non existant! his calling range of this push is 44/88/99/JJ/QQ/KK/AA - notice a pattern - you beat none of them.

Villain has 99-AA 96.6% of the time at the turn

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]

Fold turn.

And do not push the flop,your equity vs his calling range is non existant! his calling range of this push is 44/88/99/JJ/QQ/KK/AA - notice a pattern - you beat none of them.

Villain has 99-AA 96.6% of the time at the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd push this flop and hope NOT the be called. This is a big pot and I want to win it right there. The flop is pretty useless for high cards and there are a lot of them in his reraising range if 9% is accurate. This is actually a pretty far range. So I think my fold equity is pretty high, esp. because a middle PP is very well in the range given our preflop play. And there is a good chance we have the best hand right now. I don't really like the call, because we have a good chance to be ahead, are unlikely to improve on the next street but our opponent has a lot of cards that will either improve him or scare us. I think we should try to take the pot down right there or give up. Problem is that we don't know villain. A WTS and W$SD would be nice over a good sample size. This is a perfect reverse implied odds example, imo.

As played, turn is standard.

(Yes, I'm rereading ToP at the moment...).

[Loc0Loc0]

I should push the flop, or 4 bet preflop.

As the weakish line you took it is a fold on the turn.

[EMc]

c,

Do you think hed fire this hard with NFD here?

FYI I think im shoving this flop against this player. 88 and 99 are a lot of your range and you may get him to fold JJ, QQ here maybe.

[Grim Reapa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Fold turn.

And do not push the flop,your equity vs his calling range is non existant! his calling range of this push is 44/88/99/JJ/QQ/KK/AA - notice a pattern - you beat none of them.

Villain has 99-AA 96.6% of the time at the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd push this flop and hope NOT the be called. This is a big pot and I want to win it right there. The flop is pretty useless for high cards and there are a lot of them in his reraising range if 9% is accurate. This is actually a pretty far range. So I think my fold equity is pretty high, esp. because a middle PP is very well in the range given our preflop play. And there is a good chance we have the best hand right now. I don't really like the call, because we have a good chance to be ahead, are unlikely to improve on the next street but our opponent has a lot of cards that will either improve him or scare us. I think we should try to take the pot down right there or give up. Problem is that we don't know villain. A WTS and W$SD would be nice over a good sample size. This is a perfect reverse implied odds example, imo.

As played, turn is standard.

(Yes, I'm rereading ToP at the moment...).

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has high cards then he has 6 outs (approx 24%??) to hit by the river so raising achieves v little, the only hand you beat by this turn is AhKh - which has 15 outs.

This is assuming the villain isnt a terrible player - but it defiantely looks like KK-AA

[briancash]

OK, I agree we're not getting called by worse hands, but I still think we're ahead of the villain's range(s):

PP's, AK, AQ + AJs - We're ahead 59% against this range:

Calculation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 99000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , 88 , 77
66 , 55 , 44 , 33 , 22 , AKs, AQs, AJs
AKo, AQo
Bet: $15.5

Hand 2:
TdTs Bet: $6.0

Other money in the pot: $22.25

Board: 8s4c9h x x

Hand | 1 | 2 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 40068 | 57942 |
Draw | 990 | 990 |
Lose | 57942 | 40068 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Equity| 23.53 | 20.22 |
Profit| 8.03 | 14.22 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 40.97% | 59.03% |
------+--------------+--------------+

The turn action does really look like a big pair (although according to those stats villain as AF of 9 so who knows), but I'd find it hard not to raise that flop against a light re-raiser, and I do think we get looked up occasionally by hands like A9s, A8s, 77-55 if villain puts us on a draw.

[Loc0Loc0]

Villain could have anything with you calling the flop here wich is almost always a TT or JJ imo.

[Sam Spade]

I like your play pf and on the flop. Give the screen the middle finger for teasing you as you fold the turn.

[PocketNinjas]

[ QUOTE ]
FYI I think im shoving this flop against this player. 88 and 99 are a lot of your range and you may get him to fold JJ, QQ here maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when do people fold overpairs at 50 NL?

[ama0330]

I guess this kinda depends on how capable he is of double barreling. For those who advocate a flop call, what is our line if he checks the turn? And if he check raises?

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, "I'm all-in".

[/ QUOTE ]

Isura, do you mean on the flop or on the turn? And can you explain the flop process to me a little?

[cbloom]

Yeah, I guess this is a bit tricky. Some thoughts :

First, on the 9% RR - I have my own custom database analysis stuff that does RR% among other things. One problem with RR% is that it takes a lot of hands to settle down because RR situations are pretty rare, so it's totally possible that number is off. Anyway the rest of his stats are consistent with aggression so I believe he is indeed reraising light. I'm pretty sure he's at least reraising AQ+, and 99+.

So, obviously my hand is pretty strong against his range preflop. The problem is I don't know whether to play it for set value or not.

On the flop he's going to cbet almost 100% of the time, so his cbet doesn't change his range and I'm still okay against his range, though actually it's kind of a bad flop in that 88 and 99 beat me now, I'm only beating AQ+.

Obviously if I shove the flop he'll fold AQ+ and call with everything that beats me.

On the turn, I dunno, I don't know him enough to say but I'm guessing he would give up with AQ+ unless it was suited hearts in which case he might go ahead and shove it.

So I'm thinking folding the turn is best.

As for the flop I'm still not sure whether calling there is good or maybe I should just fold.

[Loc0Loc0]

Reraising light..

I think a light reraisers range is (for a OTB opening raise):
Any pair
AJs+
SC's

But i don't think SC's are very profitable on this limits because we still don;t have much FE, but he could.
On the turn we don't beat anything
By pushing the flop you represent a made set and he will fold up to Aces maybe.

On the turn we definitely should fold.

[MusashiStyle]

fold flop

[Davey Valentine]

Looks like a bigger over pair. People at 50nl don't re-raise pf with nothing.