50: Push with QQ on paired board.

[TheRenaissance]

Villain was 22/12 over 50 or so hands.
Agression was 0, so he hasnt called anything yet, but small sample sizzzzzzz

Anyway, my thinking on the flop:
He doesnt have AA/KK because of preflop. TT/JJ/99 is possible. So is 78/98/JT/67 with or without a flush draw to go, and given it is a paired board, some dumb lower pocket pushing me off AK.

So I pushed, praying some worse pocket would call me, as a billion cards could ruin my action on the turn.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

SB: $48.75
BB: $58.25
<font color="black"> Ren (UTG): $147 </font>
<font color="black"> 22/12 (MP): $51.45 </font>
CO: $50.85
BTN: $50

<font color="black"> Preflop: </font> Ren is dealt Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red"> Ren raises to $2 </font>, 22/12 calls $2, 4 folds

<font color="black"> Flop: </font> ($4.75) 8http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif 9http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red"> Ren bets $4 </font>, <font color="red"> 22/12 raises to $12 </font>, <font color="red"> Ren raises all-in to $145 </font>

[ama0330]

Yeah I think this is fine. Given the nature of the board ie straights and flushes both there I think you're good to throw 100bb at this and given preflop action, He most likely doesnt have the overpair. Even if he does, I have you at 57% here.

[Loc0Loc0]

I don't feel like 3-betting hier.

You will push out draws and let better hands call.
I prefer to call and check/call the turn.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I think this is fine. Given the nature of the board ie straights and flushes both there I think you're good to throw 100bb at this and given preflop action, He most likely doesnt have the overpair. Even if he does, I have you at 57% here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I figured.
FWIW this is what I expect his calling range to be:

Hold'em Simulation
20,790 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8d9d8s
Hand Pot equity
QdQc 59.98%
99,TT,JJ,6d7d,JdTd,7c8c,9c8c,7h8h,9h8h 40.02%

Anyone who strongly disagrees?

Edit: Just wanted to add that I think QQ = AA here, and I would certainly play AA like this.

[Loc0Loc0]

Don't we only get called by a 8 or a boat? Calling an OESFD on a paired board is not EV+ here. So i think we can exclude that from his calling range.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't we only get called by a 8 or a boat? Calling an OESFD on a paired board is not EV+ here. So i think we can exclude that from his calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think we only get called by better hands here? I think you are very wrong. I dont have a read that says villain is expert. Just a few hands where he didnt do anything special. So few villains would be able to lay down OESFD here, and I doubt they should, as my range is heavily weighted towards an overpair, and they can profitably call with the money already in the pot. I am sure most villains call with TT/JJ as well (though they definitely shouldnt).

I could be wrong, but I am not convinced yet.

[Loc0Loc0]

Let put is this way... I wouldn't call a drawing hands on a paired board most of the times and i wouldnt call TT/JJ either..'

I don't call raises with JTs so ive i was in this pot i could only have a SC or a pair. probably not raising a pair here. So i would have an overpair beat for sure...

[C4LL4W4Y]

IDK if you can give him credit for an OESFD. He could have any type of draw at this point. TT and JJ should never call unless they've seen you push combo draws before, and judging from the small sample size I doubt this to be the case.

The pot is $16.75 when you put him all in, and this guy has $37.45 behind. So he has $37.45 to call into a pot of $54.20. Bare straight draws and FD's are only calling if the guy behind the screen is a complete moron. Thus if it's a draw only the OESFD is calling, and if he has it, nh I guess. But he rarely has it. Like I said, TT-JJ depend on both whether or not he's seen you do anything and the moron factor. For me, that leaves KK, AA, Axs, JTs, 67s, any legitimate 8 (98s, 88, 78s, 68s?), 99. I don't have the tools to do a proper calculation or else this post would be more complete so...

Do you think a 3b for a lesser amount is in order? Even though it's going to commit him to the pot anyway, I think we are more likely to grab some naked flush/straight draws to come along for the ride.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
IDK if you can give him credit for an OESFD. He could have any type of draw at this point. TT and JJ should never call unless they've seen you push combo draws before, and judging from the small sample size I doubt this to be the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he could have any type of draw.
I tried to define his calling range, not flop raising range.
Though TT/JJ shouldnt call, dont many villains do so anyways?
Should I assume he is a super solid tag?

About 3b size, when he makes it 12 it is kinda awkward for me to do anything but push. Anything smaller would be virtually a minraise.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Yeah you're right. I think it's a debate between call/push. As far as what type of villain, I agree it's tough to assume he's a good TAG at 50 w/o any history.

Calling and leading a blank turn seems like a solid option, because stack-a-donk will often fail when he checks the turn behind and you lose the value you're looking for. If he shoves your turn bet, you have an interesting decision on your hands.

But against random 50NL opponents I'm not sure pushing is as bad as I thought.

[munkey]

I saw this hand when you posted it and couldn't decide @ the time -on one hand I really liked it but I considred villans calling range of the AI given he raised us and wasn;t so sure.

Raising is o.k. and like you say if we 3bet you have to push given 3b size is practically AI. If we had KK+ I prefer this more as there are more oveprairs we beat.

Folding is teh suck.
Calling I suppose is o.k if u -though you could c/r turn AI on a good card - u get a little more info if he checks behind the turn/his betsize and you have better equity vs draws.

I still don't really know what'll do but I'll instinctively c/r turn AI - I suspect he's either got trips+/ or thinks you missed the paired board and has a PP/SC semi-hit.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling I suppose is o.k if u -though you could c/r turn AI on a good card - u get a little more info if he checks behind the turn/his betsize and you have better equity vs draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
I saw this hand when you posted it and couldn't decide @ the time -on one hand I really liked it but I considred villans calling range of the AI given he raised us and wasn;t so sure.

Raising is o.k. and like you say if we 3bet you have to push given 3b size is practically AI. If we had KK+ I prefer this more as there are more oveprairs we beat.

Folding is teh suck.
Calling I suppose is o.k if u -though you could c/r turn AI on a good card - u get a little more info if he checks behind the turn/his betsize and you have better equity vs draws.

I still don't really know what'll do but I'll instinctively c/r turn AI - I suspect he's either got trips+/ or thinks you missed the paired board and has a PP/SC semi-hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

CRAI turn seems like a decent option, even though not many cards can be considered safe or good (6,J,K,A,7,9,/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and we are [censored]'d). About having KK+: Given preflop, shouldnt we assume QQ=AA? I mean if villain slowplays KK/AA, bless him, he can have my stack.

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I think this is fine. Given the nature of the board ie straights and flushes both there I think you're good to throw 100bb at this and given preflop action, He most likely doesnt have the overpair. Even if he does, I have you at 57% here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I figured.
FWIW this is what I expect his calling range to be:

Hold'em Simulation
20,790 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8d9d8s
Hand Pot equity
QdQc 59.98%
99,TT,JJ,6d7d,JdTd,7c8c,9c8c,7h8h,9h8h 40.02%

Anyone who strongly disagrees?

Edit: Just wanted to add that I think QQ = AA here, and I would certainly play AA like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ/TT think for 2 seconds and fold - or is this Party? There's also a bunch of nut flush draws that call where you are 50/50. I'd be very surprised to see you are ahead if he calls. At best you are 50/50.

Board: 8d 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.209% 70.21% 00.00% 9731 0.00 { 99-88, AdKd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad2d, JdTd, 98s, 87s, 7d6d }
Hand 1: 29.791% 29.79% 00.00% 4129 0.00 { QcQd }

[kolotoure]

Most people with TP like his aren't folding an overpair here and I don't think there aren't that many 8s in his range. Only because you would fold a certain hand here it doesn't mean that villain does. Calling is pretty bad I think because your OOP and raising a FD IP = so standard

[mikechops]

The villain folding JJ/TT here is as standard as raising a FD. Also we are not ahead of a NFD or even Kxd, we have no FE, so why push?

I'd call and if you are determined to get it in push a safe turn. You would have decent FE.

[kolotoure]

Mike, I think you underestimate how bad TAGs are at 50nl but I only play party so I may be wrong

[TheRenaissance]

Results:
Villain tanked for ten seconds and called with JJ.

[boondoggle]

spew.

cheers
Boon

[kolotoure]

Boon, you're wrong

Cheers
Kolo

[boondoggle]

spewage. If you cannot see why, then I welcome you to my table every day.

cheers
Boon

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
spewage. If you cannot see why, then I welcome you to my table every day.

cheers
Boon

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying not to be too results orientated here but they clearly show that worse hands are calling which means this can't be complete spew. Obv not a standard line but something that could work against regulars for metagame or calling stations who will look you up light.

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
spewage. If you cannot see why, then I welcome you to my table every day.

cheers
Boon

[/ QUOTE ]

Instead of insulting posters maybe you should explain why it is so bad

[boondoggle]

I should explain like you did in your earlier post?

[ QUOTE ]
Boon, you're wrong

Cheers
Kolo

[/ QUOTE ]

I was not insulting you---but would welcome anyone to my tables with this line.

simple saying--&gt; big hands = big pots. QQ on this board is not a big hand.

If villin has AKd then its a coinflip. This is #2 leak of micro stakes players--not knowing how to play big PP. The #1 leak is not understanding flop texture.

cheers
Boon

[boondoggle]

Bingo Mike.

cheers
Boon

[kolotoure]

TAGs call me with 77 here and lol @ most TAGs being able to fold any overpair

[corsakh]

boon, are you saying that pushing for 100BB in coin flip situations with dead money already in the pot spew? In this case, "welcome to my table" (c) boon.

On a side note, I think its a good move OOP. I personally fold of a lot of better hands in villains shoes here.

[TheRenaissance]

Those of you in the spew camp, do you recommend calling the raise and getting it in on a blank turn?

[boondoggle]

Mike I am going to borrow your equity line post.

[ QUOTE ]

Board: 8d 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.209% 70.21% 00.00% 9731 0.00 { 99-88, AdKd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad2d, JdTd, 98s, 87s, 7d6d }
Hand 1: 29.791% 29.79% 00.00% 4129 0.00 { QcQd }


[/ QUOTE ]

Corsakh--what part of this do you not understand?

I think simply calling and reevaluating on turn is much better move long term.

cheers
Boon

[.xxxx.]

Ren don't worry too much about the spew crowd, well played and the only thing to remember is that against the range willing to get it in on this flop your edge is going to be smaller than you'd usually like to get it in, but +EV overall. It just matters whether or not you want to play a small or big pot with these kinds of flops, and I'm starting to lean towards the small pot arguement.

[mikechops]

Meh, what can I say? I guess I thought he'd fold JJ, but you know your donks better than me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I do believe the play depends on him calling with JJ-TT and also that him calling your push in that spot is bad. I try to play as if my opponents are semi-thinking, at least until they show me otherwise, though maybe I'm passing up EV by doing so.

Board: 8d 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.373% 80.35% 00.03% 260109 81.00 { QQ+, 99-88, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd }
Hand 1: 19.627% 19.60% 00.03% 63459 81.00 { JJ-TT }

[Vyse]

ive played too many hands at the micros, kolo is rihgt,tags will call wiht 77 here, nevertheless TT and JJq

[corsakh]

Because pushing coinflips makes it at least 60 - 40 from 50 - 50 due to increased folding equity.