50NL; AQ makes top 2; board pairs on river

[Lego05]

Ok I 99.8% of the time would raise pre-flop here so please don't focus on that part of the hand.

Villian is 53.52/7.75/.57 over 142 hands.
Went to showdown 18 of 70 (25.71%)
Won 5 of 18 (27.78%)

What's the river play here? Comment on flop or turn play if you wish. Thanks.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($69.45)
UTG ($220.35)
MP ($78.15)
CO ($48.70)
Button ($110.55)
SB ($49.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.75) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, CO folds, Button calls $1.50.

Turn: ($4.75) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $26</font>, Button calls $18.50.

River: ($56.75) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[barryc83]

Easy shove, raise pf.

[KEW]

Block river for $25 fold to a shove...Villain springing to life on the turn is scary...

[KEW]

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Easy shove, raise pf.

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220BB deep???

[Lego05]

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Easy shove, raise pf.

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220BB deep???

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We are slightly less than 140 BB's deep.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
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Easy shove, raise pf.

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220BB deep???

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Effective stacks=140bb. You have like a 3/5 psb left i put it in. Hes never ever folding top pair. You lose to 33 exactly.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
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Easy shove, raise pf.

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220BB deep???

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Effective stacks=140bb. You have like a 3/5 psb left i put it in. Hes never ever folding top pair. You lose to 33 exactly.

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SORRY I thought you had the 220 stack..Then yes shove..

[homanga]

Push...only hand that beats you that stick around is 33.

Definitely raise this pf tho

[Lego05]

Ok everybody's saying that 33 is the only hand that beats me: Ok 66 is not so likely now but still possible. And more possible than 66 is A6 isn't it?

And A3 may or may not still be stacking off here. If he was going to stack off with A3 before the board paired then he prolly still should, but will he?

Do you think he is stacking off with any A here? Or at least with enough that shoving is +ev?

[KEW]

After being corrected on stack sizes I am shoving here because I can not fold..IMO villains calling range is greater then villains betting range...This does not mean that if I am called I expect to win more then 50% of the time..

[barryc83]

Ok, Im gonna go to bed but let me just say this: NO ONE FOLDS TOP PAIR, especially 53 vpip guys. Seriously, if theres one thing ive learned from playing 50nl, its that trying to get people to fold tp/overpairs is severely -EV. Hes stacking off with any A IMO (and im fairly sure others will agree), he might not even realize his A3 got counterfeited.

Yes A6 is possible and that would be a sick beat. 66 not so much bc quads are tough to get and even huge donks tend not to call that on this flop. You are losing a ton of value by not pushing here.


EDIT: Personally I expect to be ahead more than 50% of the time.

[Xanta]

This is a trivially easy shove. Laugh when villain calls with Ax hoping for a split. You're behind 33 and A6 here, and ahead of any other ace, get it in. I expect to be ahead more than 65% of the time.

[AntonHeat]

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Easy shove, raise pf.

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Your losing to Set or ugly 6x basically lol